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| | |-+  Anyone else starting to think turnout in this election might rival 08's now?
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Author Topic: Anyone else starting to think turnout in this election might rival 08's now?  (Read 675 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: October 06, 2012, 01:03:57 am »
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This is not what I was thinking would be the case at all earlier this year but it's starting to seem more and more feasible.
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Politico
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 01:06:01 am »
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What Democrat, let alone Independent, wants four more years of the last four years, especially after witnessing the president's inability to defend the last four years? Seriously? America is burning while 21st Century Nero reads his teleprompter...

The best Democrats could manage to do was twist "I love Big Bird" into "I'LL FIRE BIG BIRD." Unfortunately for them, that one only appeals to the same 25% of the electorate who said Obama "won" the debate (AKA "preaching to the choir")

For the longest time, Democrats painted an image of Romney that was a caricature, a figment of their imagination. They painted a picture of a monster who hates seniors and babies. Romney thoroughly destroyed that image on Wednesday night in a fashion we have NEVER seen before in a presidential debate. As a result, Democrats are in a world of trouble because they have lost the trust of many Independents, lost the faith of many Democrats, and fired up the Republicans...

Bottomline: Relative to 2008, turnout will be down for all groups other than Republicans.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2012, 01:13:57 am by Politico »Logged

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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 01:14:35 am »
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If it happens... and I'm not in any way confident it will... who'll take bets as to which hysterical Romney-ite will claim voter fraud?
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Politico
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 01:34:38 am »
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If it happens... and I'm not in any way confident it will... who'll take bets as to which hysterical Romney-ite will claim voter fraud?

FWIW: "Vote early and vote often" is the Chicago Way...
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 01:49:13 am »
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And we have our answer...
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 01:52:26 am »
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Part of me says yes, part of me says no.

No because this is a very boring election, much like 1996 or 2004.

Yes because turnout has gotten higher (or more people turn 18) since 2000.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 07:58:21 am »
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Part of me says yes, part of me says no.

No because this is a very boring election, much like 1996 or 2004.

Yes because turnout has gotten higher (or more people turn 18) since 2000.

How the heck was 2004 boring??? By the way, VAP turnout was better in '04 than it was from 1972-2000.

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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 09:12:46 am »
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looking at the early voting, no, though there will be an increase in the R share of the vote, at least in some states.
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2012, 12:58:35 pm »
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The GOP base has become so thoroughly detached frrom the world they inhabit, there is no fact that is safe. Wouldn't surprise me if they soon start claiming that Jesus was the first president. And CNN will give both sides of the "controversy" equal time to be fair.
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 08:18:06 pm »
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Part of me says yes, part of me says no.

No because this is a very boring election, much like 1996 or 2004.

Yes because turnout has gotten higher (or more people turn 18) since 2000.

How the heck was 2004 boring??? By the way, VAP turnout was better in '04 than it was from 1972-2000.


I ment Bush and Kerry were boring.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2012, 09:36:49 pm »
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Bush was many things (few of them good) but not 'boring'.
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2012, 09:41:04 pm »
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No. Turn-out would be, or should be, lower than ever because the candidates we are presented are TERRIBLE.
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 09:53:29 pm »
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No, it's a less interesting election and the public in general seems a lot more tuned out.
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morgieb
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2012, 09:54:42 pm »
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No.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2012, 10:35:32 pm »
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No, it's a less interesting election and the public in general seems a lot more tuned out.

That seemed to be the case earlier in the year but you can't really say that when 67 million people watched the first debate. Only 52 million watched the first debate in 2008.
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King
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2012, 11:42:09 pm »
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America is burning while 21st Century Nero reads his teleprompter...

Note: what goes on inside your head is not reality.
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2012, 02:43:10 am »
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If I had to guess, I'd say turnout will drop compared to 2008 for Democrats, go up for Republicans, and either stay the same or go up for Independents.  For this reason, I have very little confidence in most public opinion polling at this point.  Because the polls are so sensitive to changes in sampling, the election is virtually up in the air.
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2012, 03:50:19 am »
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Turnout will be significantly lower.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2012, 07:30:02 pm »
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That seemed to be the case earlier in the year but you can't really say that when 67 million people watched the first debate. Only 52 million watched the first debate in 2008.

The first debate in 2008 was on a Friday night, which is one of the least-watched nights on television.  The Veep and later 2008 Presidential debates got higher ratings.  Palin-Biden was watched by 70 million.  The second McCain-Obama debate was watched by 63.2 - 66 million, depending on the estimate.

Turnout will be down from '08.  This election isn't nearly as historical.  Everything points to lower turnout from the 18-29 set and perhaps African-Americans.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2012, 07:38:56 pm »
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I still think turnout will probably end up lower than it was in '08 but the gap between this year and that one will not be nearly as big as I was initially anticipating.

This election once felt like '96 in terms of voter interest in it. It doesn't feel like that anymore.
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