Possible Obama small state strategy?
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  Possible Obama small state strategy?
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Devils30
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« on: October 06, 2012, 12:49:00 PM »

With the awful debate showing, it's pretty clear its close to a national tie at this point. Of course this might be as good as it gets for Romney since the jobs report gives Obama much stronger footing but it appears close and NC is likely out of Obama's reach to say the least.
I think its possible Obama may be better off trying to win a several small states like IA, CO, NH, NV rather than betting it all on Ohio (in all fairness he has enough $$ he can play everywhere easily). With  WI included with those above states he can get to 272, without OH, VA, FL, NC.
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Orion0
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 01:08:20 PM »

I would say its a valid strategy to take, but the fact is that Ohio remains Obama's best chance of stopping Romney. The smaller states and especially Colorado remain very much in play for Romney, and it's looking doubtful that Obama could pull off all of your mentioned states at this point.
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Ty440
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 01:16:03 PM »

I think Obama will win Ohio unless Romney wins the popular vote by  more than 1% . That auto bailout is huge around here and might be Obama's firewall in Ohio.
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anvi
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 01:55:29 PM »

If Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Ohio, all he would have to do is hold Nevada to win.  Iowa would work too, but I think Nevada is a better bet given the margins and demographic factors, ect..  If Obama wins all the Kerry states but loses Ohio, he wold still need 13 EVs to win, which would seem to make Virginia ground zero instead of trying to win two out of Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.  In short, I'd be putting the most effort right now into Ohio, Virginia and Nevada.  Depending on how things shake out and given the closer margins in places like Colorado and Iowa, I think making big investments in the former three states, where the president seems anyway to have a little more pull, makes more electoral sense.  But, as a secondary effort, I'd really try to be turning out the Hispanic vote in Colorado, which seems to underperform in terms of turnout in recent national elections.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 02:06:24 PM »

I think some of the small states will fall before OH does. 

Obama's best bet is to try to hold OH, and I still am not predicting that he will lose it.
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