Massive movement towards Romney

[Antonio the Sixth]

Evidence pointing toward a massive movement: some crappy polls, but lots of them, all telling a consistent story.

Evidence pointing toward a modest bounce: a PPP poll that hasn't come yet.


The fact is, guys, we have no means to know what's actually happening. This could go anywhere from Romney +1 to Romney +5.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obama has dropped from around 87% to around 80% on 538.  That might qualify as massive, but it's nothing to get too worked up over yet.  If the other 3 debates all produce 7 point drops in win probability too, we'll have a real horserace.

The 538 forecast model, as well-designed as it is, is not really able to grasp sudden and massive trends (that's not what I say, that's what Nate says). It is likely that Obama's position is overestimated right now.