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Author Topic: How long will Romney's bounce last?  (Read 723 times)
Clinton 2016
diskymike44
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« on: October 06, 2012, 05:55:16 pm »
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How long will it last?
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 06:19:35 pm »
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If Reuters and PPP are any indication, Mitt may have peaked on Friday.
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Wolfentoad
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 06:20:10 pm »
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Until Obama stops being an incompetent idiot and starts doing well in debates.
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 09:47:41 pm »
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October 27, 2019.  Smiley

Seriously, I would not enter panic mode if I were a Democrat just yet.
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J. J.

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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 09:50:03 pm »
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Till the VP debate.
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 09:51:08 pm »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 09:52:07 pm »
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I think this polling change may be more of a course-correct than a bump. He was sagging disproportionately and is now polling where he objectively should be. Well, as objectively as you can in such an obnoxiously unrealistic and dishonest Presidential shet-show of a campaign. Romney should be within one or two points of Obama considering the current climate.
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 09:58:15 pm »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.

Don't go nuts ... we have no idea what this is yet - anything else is just wishful thinking
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2012, 10:10:17 pm »
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Random possibilities in declining or increasing order of preference depending on your side:

1. October 12th, 2012- Biden doesn't make as much of a fool of himself as the audience expects

2. October 16th, 2012- At the town hall: "If you're unemployed, why are you here whining to me?  That's your problem, not mine!"

3. October 2nd, 2013- Syriza wins Greek election, announces independence and printing of Drachmas.  Dow -1500 on the day, -3700 on the week.  Democrats sweep every statewide office in NJ and VA.  

4. April 7th, 2020- Senator Todd Akin clinches the Republican nomination against Vice President Ryan.  His Democratic opponent, the first female nominee, leads him by 56/35 in the polls.

5. August 28th, 2024- Julian Castro emerges from the DNC in Austin with his first polling lead of the year over President Ryan.
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2012, 10:14:06 pm »
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Wait another week and we will know the answer to your question. Obama basically negated alot of the good work his campaign did during the summer with a lackluster performance. He needs to come roaring back during the next debate to even this up, but don't be surprised if Mitt Zombie takes the lead before the next debate.

Obama could change the dynamics of this race by asking the voters one simple question:  " do you want to give control of the federal government to the party who's policies brought us to the brink of the 2nd Great Depression?"  Or talk about the 47%...but I am sure he won't.
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2012, 10:17:45 pm »
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Till the VP debate.

Mhm.
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2012, 10:20:13 pm »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.

You were seemed reasonable until you said that. Seriously bro, you're delusioned if you think he's a Ronald Reagan.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2012, 10:21:42 pm »
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A key indicator will be to keep an eye on Obama's approval rating. While he has taken a hit on the ballot test in both Rasmussen and Gallup he remains at 50% with both (both still have pre-debate data). PPP"s WI poll has Obama at 49. If he can stay in the 49/50 range then the race will likely snap back to the Obama +1 range (I'm assuming Romney's bounce will take him to a tie race or even Romney +1 sometime this week)
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2012, 10:52:31 pm »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.

You were seemed reasonable until you said that. Seriously bro, you're delusioned if you think he's a Ronald Reagan.

I don't believe he is, but he certainly used those 90 minutes to make himself look Reaganesque amongst the voters.
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2012, 11:00:02 pm »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.
This
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2012, 11:25:25 pm »
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Till the VP debate.

In 2020?  Smiley

Seriously, the VP debate will have very little effect, no matter what.
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J. J.

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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2012, 01:19:23 am »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.
This

Seconded.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Romney will be the Reagan of the 21st Century!

God bless America!
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Orion0
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2012, 01:31:08 am »
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I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.
This

Seconded.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Romney will be the Reagan of the 21st Century!

God bless America!

Third this. All of it. A lot of people's eyes are now opened (or slowly opening) to the fact that under Romney America could once again be a beacon of liberty and prosperity. That's a hard shine to wear down in under a month when it didn't happen over the last 8. Reaganesque is a great word to describe him. He's no Reagan, but he's damn close.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 01:34:47 am »
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Till the VP debate.

In 2020?  Smiley

Seriously, the VP debate will have very little effect, no matter what.

I know what you mean. I just say with the outcome that I think would happen plus the slow deflation of the bounce would get us back to where we were a little before the conventions. It depends how big Romney's bounce is though and if I am right.
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2012, 05:57:01 am »
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It lasted 34 hours until the jobs report. 
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 08:06:49 am »
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I think this polling change may be more of a course-correct than a bump. He was sagging disproportionately and is now polling where he objectively should be. Well, as objectively as you can in such an obnoxiously unrealistic and dishonest Presidential shet-show of a campaign. Romney should be within one or two points of Obama considering the current climate.

Romney did not change. All that he did was to repackage himself and deny earlier positions. He has done that before, and he has typically faded soon afterward.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 11:13:11 am »
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It's probably a dead cat bounce. Obama's approvals are still in the 50% zone.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2012, 01:17:48 pm »
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Yeah once the excellent job numbers came out the bounce died.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2012, 01:19:24 pm »
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The debate-bounce is over, but he could get another one if Obama continues to not show up at the debates.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2012, 01:21:10 pm »
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The debate-bounce is over, but he could get another one if Obama continues to not show up at the debates.

I would agree with this point, but I don't think we'll see the same Obama in the next debates.
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