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| | |-+  States where the parties' strongest regions have flipped in the last 50 years
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Author Topic: States where the parties' strongest regions have flipped in the last 50 years  (Read 966 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: October 07, 2012, 01:08:48 am »
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The first one that comes to mind is Kentucky.  In the 1976 Presidential election, where Carter won the state 53%-46%, Carter won by dominating the rural 1st and 2nd districts in the Western half of the state, while running behind in the Louisville and Jefferson county based third district.  Now, Democrats usually get killed in the 1st and 2nd districts, while they have to get 60% plus in the-third district to have a chance statewide. 

Another is Virginia.  Ford eked out a win in the state in 1976 due to his margins in Northern Virginia, which were just enough to offset Carter's margin in the rest of the state, which is more "southern".  Now, any Democrats who hopes to win statewide needs to win Northern Virginia by double digits to offset Republican strength in the rest of the state.

Can anyone else think of any states like this?
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2012, 02:18:25 am »
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In NC, Mecklenburg, Forsyth and Guilford were historically Republican counties while the southeast was Democratic. That relationship is being reversed.
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soniquemd21921
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 06:23:48 am »
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Ohio: Before the New Deal, the most Republican part of the state was always the northeastern "Western Reserve", while the most Democratic area was most of the German-settled western counties (i.e. John Boehner's district). Now it's the reverse.

Illinois: The northern counties were among the most rock-ribbed Republican counties anywhere in the nation, while the southern counties usually voted Democratic. However, in the last few presidential elections the southern counties have been providing the largest GOP pluralities.

Missouri: The southern-settled "Little Dixie" north of St. Louis was always the most Democratic area of the state. Now it votes Republican (at least in the presidential election).
« Last Edit: October 07, 2012, 06:29:06 am by soniquemd21921 »Logged

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 11:28:51 am »
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Illinois: The northern counties were among the most rock-ribbed Republican counties anywhere in the nation, while the southern counties usually voted Democratic. However, in the last few presidential elections the southern counties have been providing the largest GOP pluralities.

well actually northern IL minus Chicago is still very republican. DuPage, McHenry, western Lake have still gone GOP in every election without Obama on the ballot.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 11:32:14 am »
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the best example is Texas. In 1960 1968 and 1976 democrats won Texas while losing Dallas and Harris counties. Now, democrats probably have to get 60% in Harris and 65% in Dallas to win the state. Meanwhile much of rural eastern and central Texas which democrats would win by decent margins have gone off the deep end.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 05:00:52 am »
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the best example is Texas. In 1960 1968 and 1976 democrats won Texas while losing Dallas and Harris counties. Now, democrats probably have to get 60% in Harris and 65% in Dallas to win the state. Meanwhile much of rural eastern and central Texas which democrats would win by decent margins have gone off the deep end.

Just look at the old 1st and 2nd districts.  In 1988, Dukakis did about as well as he did nationally in the 1st, while Obama likely got about 33% there.  Same in the old 2nd where Dukakis actually won by four points, but Obama probably got around 33% there. 
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 07:27:15 am »
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Illinois: The northern counties were among the most rock-ribbed Republican counties anywhere in the nation, while the southern counties usually voted Democratic. However, in the last few presidential elections the southern counties have been providing the largest GOP pluralities.

well actually northern IL minus Chicago is still very republican. DuPage, McHenry, western Lake have still gone GOP in every election without Obama on the ballot.
Yeah, but the Democrats have dominated most of the state because Clinton got the moderates to vote Democrat and they've been doing it ever since, even if the Collar Counties still lean Republican.  The margins just aren't what they were before '92.
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 08:37:11 am »
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Look at the 1960 map of Florida. Nixon won Broward, Palm Beach, Pinellas, and Orange County while losing Dade, Duval, Marion, and the Panhandle. There's even a Democratic ring around Republican Alachua County!

Of course the population living in most of those counties has skyrocketed.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 08:40:16 am by brittain33 »Logged
Torie
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2012, 09:23:34 am »
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One of the most spectacular Dem collapses in more recent times has been in Middle Tennessee. The latest domino to fall in the Confederate zone is the three quarters of Arkansas outside the northwest corner. On the other side of the ledger, outside Alaska, most anything next to the Pacific Ocean has not been good to the Pubs. It must be something in the water there.
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 01:56:08 pm »
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Ohio: Before the New Deal, the most Republican part of the state was always the northeastern "Western Reserve", while the most Democratic area was most of the German-settled western counties (i.e. John Boehner's district). Now it's the reverse.

Illinois: The northern counties were among the most rock-ribbed Republican counties anywhere in the nation, while the southern counties usually voted Democratic. However, in the last few presidential elections the southern counties have been providing the largest GOP pluralities.

Missouri: The southern-settled "Little Dixie" north of St. Louis was always the most Democratic area of the state. Now it votes Republican (at least in the presidential election).

My ancestors lived in Scott County (borders Illinois's southern tip) from the 1830s onward (some of them still live there). They were consistently Republican/Unionist over that entire period, at least according to my grandmother and great-aunt's recollections. (Though the ones that currently reside in that area actually tend to vote Democratic).
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2012, 04:33:10 pm »
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The urban core of Atlanta used to vote predominantly Republican while the rural areas of the state voted for Democrats. For instance, in 1976 and 1980, Jimmy Carter's worse county was Dekalb. Now it's one of Obama's best in the state.
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2012, 07:44:20 pm »
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Ohio: Before the New Deal, the most Republican part of the state was always the northeastern "Western Reserve", while the most Democratic area was most of the German-settled western counties (i.e. John Boehner's district). Now it's the reverse.

Illinois: The northern counties were among the most rock-ribbed Republican counties anywhere in the nation, while the southern counties usually voted Democratic. However, in the last few presidential elections the southern counties have been providing the largest GOP pluralities.

Missouri: The southern-settled "Little Dixie" north of St. Louis was always the most Democratic area of the state. Now it votes Republican (at least in the presidential election).

My ancestors lived in Scott County (borders Illinois's southern tip) from the 1830s onward (some of them still live there). They were consistently Republican/Unionist over that entire period, at least according to my grandmother and great-aunt's recollections. (Though the ones that currently reside in that area actually tend to vote Democratic).

Scott County isn't in Little Dixie. It was also historically Democratic, though.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2012, 05:08:29 pm »
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The urban core of Atlanta used to vote predominantly Republican while the rural areas of the state voted for Democrats. For instance, in 1976 and 1980, Jimmy Carter's worse county was Dekalb. Now it's one of Obama's best in the state.

Just look at the 1970 Gubernatorial election:



Or the 1980 Senatorial election:



Versus now. It's not perfect, but it's pretty close:

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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2012, 02:29:18 pm »
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As others have pointed out in individual, the Solid South first began to crumble in metropolitan areas. Country clubbers fled the party and urban neighboods 50 years ago. Rural Dems held on much, much longer thanks to the Voting Rights Act, resistance to change, and rural electrification. Of course, now most cities are majority minority and are thus, Democratic strongholds, but it is a huge mistake to think the same of Southern metropolitans and conclude that we are now in a complete reverse of the Jimmy Carter days. Discounting fringe areas that aren't really Southern, the only reliably Dem metros in the South are heavily black Memphis, Richmond, Raleigh-Durham, and Hampton Roads. Atlanta, New Orleans, Charlotte, Birmingham et al still have Republican leaning metro areas. The Tennessee Valley and parts of Arkansas still substantial have white Dem support. Perhaps they won't in 20 years. Things change slowly in those parts.
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2012, 02:50:08 pm »
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How bout WV? The southern coalfields were traditionally the friendliest to Democrats, but now that area has swung the hardest to the Republicans.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2012, 03:57:25 pm »
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How bout WV? The southern coalfields were traditionally the friendliest to Democrats, but now that area has swung the hardest to the Republicans.

At a state level, they're still the Democratic base.
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soniquemd21921
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2012, 10:41:51 pm »
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How about:

California: Coastal and Southern California used to be the most Republican, while the mountain counties used to be the most Democratic. Now the mountain counties are the most Republican, while the coastal counties are the epitome of the "latte liberal" stereotype.

Oregon: Western Oregon was the most Republican area of the state, with Benton County the most Republican. Now the interior is the most Republican, while Benton County is one of the most liberal.


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