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Author Topic: Obama's White Support Is Too Low to Win  (Read 636 times)
opebo
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« on: October 07, 2012, 12:17:48 pm »
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/22/obamas_white_support_is_too_low_to_win_2012_romney_white_male_gap_white_women_kuhn_114579.html
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2012, 12:19:44 pm »
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And yet he is winning.
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 12:23:54 pm »
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Obama currently has 40-43% of Whites, according to recent national surveys by CNN and Quinnipiac, with up to 5% still undecided.

Obama got 43% in 2008, so he's perfectly fine with Whites at the moment.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 12:24:37 pm »
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Southern whites probably drag the number down in national polls.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 12:26:30 pm »
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More Republican wet dream articles from RCP.
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2012, 12:29:36 pm »
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Obama currently has 40-43% of Whites, according to recent national surveys by CNN and Quinnipiac, with up to 5% still undecided.

Obama got 43% in 2008, so he's perfectly fine with Whites at the moment.

They say he only needs 40% nationally.  We'll see!  Of course it really depends on the state by state situation - would love to know what he got/needs in Ohio and Wisconsin.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2012, 01:16:42 pm »
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I actually agree that Race is a factor, but it has actually helped increase Obama's perceived lead in the polls.  Its called "The Obama Effect" similar to the Bradley effect. 

The liberal media and liberals activists have created a protective Halo around Obama because he is this "Black Savior" and average voters are push by Pop Culture to tell pollsters and their friends that they Blindly support the President. 

But Obama's white support is very soft and unreliable.  Most white voters care about the Economy, and 8% or 7.8% unemployment is still very bad and uncomfortable.  Black unemployment is far worse and Black voters are equally upset about the economy and Obama's job performance. 

Bottom line, Obama's supporters are subconcsiously lying to pollsters and won't remember to vote for him on election day, if they vote at all.
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2012, 01:28:44 pm »
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The bottom line is this, taken right from the article.

Democrats have come to depend on diversity. But even today, diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.

Listen to Opebo.  He is often right.
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 01:28:51 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 01:38:41 pm »
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Article from June

Pre debate polling shows obama at over 40% with whites. The Romney campaign's expressed goal is to hold Obama under 40%.
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2012, 01:38:51 pm »
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I actually agree that Race is a factor, but it has actually helped increase Obama's perceived lead in the polls.  Its called "The Obama Effect" similar to the Bradley effect. 

The liberal media and liberals activists have created a protective Halo around Obama because he is this "Black Savior" and average voters are push by Pop Culture to tell pollsters and their friends that they Blindly support the President. 

But Obama's white support is very soft and unreliable.  Most white voters care about the Economy, and 8% or 7.8% unemployment is still very bad and uncomfortable.  Black unemployment is far worse and Black voters are equally upset about the economy and Obama's job performance. 

Bottom line, Obama's supporters are subconcsiously lying to pollsters and won't remember to vote for him on election day, if they vote at all.
If race is a factor, it's because white voters who were, or are, Obama supporters, want to support him because he is part black.  They assume that all things being equal, they would rather have the "black" candidate and prove that they're not racist.  Ironically, most people who don't support President Obama, myself included, feel the way they do because they disagree with his left-wing policies, not because of his race.  It was true when he first ran in 2008, and it's true again this year.  If anything, there is a reverse Bradley effect: people vote for the black candidate in greater numbers to prove they're not racists.  I don't think Tom Bradley necessarily lost because of his race, but it illustrates my point.
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2012, 02:01:45 pm »
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The bottom line is this, taken right from the article.

Democrats have come to depend on diversity. But even today, diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.

Listen to Opebo.  He is often right.

I'm pretty sure that you and Opebo are the same person, because both of you have very similar talking points, only from different political viewpoints.
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 05:49:17 pm »
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I actually agree that Race is a factor, but it has actually helped increase Obama's perceived lead in the polls.  Its called "The Obama Effect" similar to the Bradley effect. 

The liberal media and liberals activists have created a protective Halo around Obama because he is this "Black Savior" and average voters are push by Pop Culture to tell pollsters and their friends that they Blindly support the President. 

But Obama's white support is very soft and unreliable.  Most white voters care about the Economy, and 8% or 7.8% unemployment is still very bad and uncomfortable.  Black unemployment is far worse and Black voters are equally upset about the economy and Obama's job performance. 

Bottom line, Obama's supporters are subconcsiously lying to pollsters and won't remember to vote for him on election day, if they vote at all.
If race is a factor, it's because white voters who were, or are, Obama supporters, want to support him because he is part black.  They assume that all things being equal, they would rather have the "black" candidate and prove that they're not racist.  Ironically, most people who don't support President Obama, myself included, feel the way they do because they disagree with his left-wing policies, not because of his race.  It was true when he first ran in 2008, and it's true again this year.  If anything, there is a reverse Bradley effect: people vote for the black candidate in greater numbers to prove they're not racists.  I don't think Tom Bradley necessarily lost because of his race, but it illustrates my point.

Real people don't think like this. The point of a secret ballot is that nobody will know who you voted for. What's to stop somebody from voting for Romney and then claiming they voted for Obama?
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2012, 05:51:50 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.

If the blacks who support him don't show up, it won't matter.
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2012, 05:54:32 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.

If the blacks who support him don't show up, it won't matter.
The black vote is probably the most certain thing about this election.
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GM3PRP
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2012, 06:04:30 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.

If the blacks who support him don't show up, it won't matter.
The black vote is probably the most certain thing about this election.

I'm talking about turnout, not support.  Aren't you concerned about turnout?
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2012, 06:40:04 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.

If the blacks who support him don't show up, it won't matter.
The black vote is probably the most certain thing about this election.

I'm talking about turnout, not support.  Aren't you concerned about turnout?
No, Republican measures to disenfranchise blacks appear to have failed for this election cycle. Turnout will be as high as 2008.
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2012, 06:44:18 pm »
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Obama is short among those whites who have decided. To remain short on election day, almost all the undecided whites would need to vote for Romney. The article headline in short is misleading.

If the blacks who support him don't show up, it won't matter.
The black vote is probably the most certain thing about this election.

I'm talking about turnout, not support.  Aren't you concerned about turnout?
No, Republican measures to disenfranchise blacks appear to have failed for this election cycle. Turnout will be as high as 2008.
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 06:51:26 pm »
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I forget the exact title of the article (it was the one where the Romney campaign admitted to having a "white strategy" in regards to pushing white turnout through the roof and saying something to the effect of "no Republican presidential campaign will ever try this again") but I do remember one number: 63% of whites would have to vote for Romney in order for him to have a shot at winning.
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2012, 06:57:39 pm »
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The liberal media and liberals activists have created a protective Halo around Obama because he is this "Black Savior" and average voters are push by Pop Culture to tell pollsters and their friends that they Blindly support the President. 

LOL very accurate.
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 06:59:30 pm »
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This article is from June...
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 07:01:01 pm »
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Article from June

This. And
"In those same matchups, Romney only wins 54 percent of whites....Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenarios)."
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2012, 07:09:17 pm »
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I forget the exact title of the article (it was the one where the Romney campaign admitted to having a "white strategy" in regards to pushing white turnout through the roof and saying something to the effect of "no Republican presidential campaign will ever try this again") but I do remember one number: 63% of whites would have to vote for Romney in order for him to have a shot at winning.

Since Romney is performing worse than even McCain with Hispanics, as long as Blacks repeat their share of the electorate and the Hispanic share ticks up a percentage point or two and Obama takes >68% of Latinos, he can tie or  beat Romney in the  popular vote with just under 38% of the white vote.

The Hispanic vote is killing Romney, if he was competitive like Bush in 2004 , he would probably be favored in NV and CO and much closer in NM.


This  shows the power of the minority vote, we are really into uncharted territory in American history. Will this eventually produce a white backlash and cause whites to start voting as a bloc .

Only time will tell
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opebo
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2012, 07:01:44 am »
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This  shows the power of the minority vote, we are really into uncharted territory in American history. Will this eventually produce a white backlash and cause whites to start voting as a bloc .

The scenario where the nation as a whole follows, say the Georgia model.  I could see it very easily occurring, though obviously there will always be a fairly large 'liberal' white group.  Here's my guess as to the 'majority minority states' by 2050 (some demographers predict we will be liberated from white-majority well before that, but nearly all see the US being liberated by 2050).  The red are already majority minority states, the green will be free of white domination by 2050 (or well before), the gray I'm not sure about or believe it will be close to 50/50:



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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2012, 07:56:12 am »
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I actually agree that Race is a factor, but it has actually helped increase Obama's perceived lead in the polls.  Its called "The Obama Effect" similar to the Bradley effect. 

The liberal media and liberals activists have created a protective Halo around Obama because he is this "Black Savior" and average voters are push by Pop Culture to tell pollsters and their friends that they Blindly support the President. 

But Obama's white support is very soft and unreliable.  Most white voters care about the Economy, and 8% or 7.8% unemployment is still very bad and uncomfortable.  Black unemployment is far worse and Black voters are equally upset about the economy and Obama's job performance. 

Bottom line, Obama's supporters are subconsciously lying to pollsters and won't remember to vote for him on election day, if they vote at all.

"Soft" support counts as much as "hard" support at this stage. It's one vote, either way.

Despite a putrid economy, President Obama can now run on it and win. The economy is more stable than it had been, and there is now no chance that the American economy collapses in time to wreck the President's chance of re-election. Such economic improvement as we have is without a boom that can go bust and without reliance on infrastructure projects that sop up construction workers who will compete with recent college grads for retail and restaurant jobs.

President Obama has unwavering support among blacks and Latinos, among Jews, among Arab-Americans, government employees, and homosexuals. Sure, there is some overlap. With roughly 40% support among white voters, that is enough to win states with 20% minority voters. He has done nothing to further offend conservative white, rural voters.

Mitt Romney has promised that he will make real estate investment attractive again... but what can he do to get people to invest in something that failed so catastrophically so recently? Speculative booms that have recently failed don't restart until those who remember the recent failure are no longer the only potential customers. 
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