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Author Topic: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47  (Read 1139 times)
Herman Cain's Gold Chain
Lief
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2012, 08:15:53 pm »
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Wow, if it's true that Romney's bump disappeared after Friday, then he may be well and truly f[inks]ed. If that debate can't turn this race around, I'm not really sure what can.

I'd like to see more polling before I untie my noose though.
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2012, 08:15:58 pm »
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PPP has a slight D bias.

No it doesn't.  Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias.
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2012, 08:19:13 pm »
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PPP has a slight D bias.

No it doesn't.  Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias.

Well to be fair - and it's not often I'll leap to J.J.'s defense! Tongue - pretty much every pollster had an R bias compared to the final result in 2010. PPP less so - that either means they're more accurate or biased towards Democrats, although personally PPP's one of the few pollsters I pay much attention to.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2012, 08:19:57 pm »
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WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2012, 08:28:20 pm »
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WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

That is correct, the rural areas there have a lot more Democratic pockets than most states do, whereas the Milwaukee suburbs are more heavily Republican than other suburbs in northern states.
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J. J.
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2012, 08:45:29 pm »
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If the right-leaning snap polls by Gravis, Rasmussen, and We Ask America soon after the debate were valid, then  the PPP poll in Virginia (PPP is as good as any except perhaps Selzer) suggests that the Romney campaign is in deep trouble.

The bump that President Obama got for offing Osama bin Laden was also short-lived. 

You make an assumption, that the race will be static.  That might not be the case.
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J. J.

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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2012, 08:49:36 pm »
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So the answer to my question is that the WI poll was Thu/Fri/Sat and the VA poll was Thu/Fri/Sat/Sun

Quote
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr

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Ty440
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2012, 08:50:32 pm »
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Whites :

Romney 57%
Obama  40%

Looks to be a near repeat of 2008.

NOT good for Romney, Virginia has only become less white since then.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2012, 08:51:53 pm »
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Well, it's PPP, so that's still more like Obama+1... Still good news on balance. Virginia is slightly more republican than the nation as a whole, so it might be a sign that Romney's bounce didn't make the race a pure tossup. I guess this would translate into Obama+2 nationwide, which is "dangerous territory" but not quite a dead heat.


In a state that Bob Freaking Dole carried in 1996, Romney is in a dogfight in a must win key state. This can't be good for republicans no matter how you spin it.

Ahem... Would you like to talk about Obama's numbers in West Virginia, a State that Mike Freaking Dukakis carried in 1988? Grin
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« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2012, 08:59:51 pm »
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PPP has a slight D bias.

No it doesn't.  Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias.

Well to be fair - and it's not often I'll leap to J.J.'s defense! Tongue - pretty much every pollster had an R bias compared to the final result in 2010. PPP less so - that either means they're more accurate or biased towards Democrats, although personally PPP's one of the few pollsters I pay much attention to.

It is one that I pay attention to, but I was thinking about 2008.  It slightly overestimated Obama, but not by a huge amount.  I think it has something to do with their modeling, but it isn't great and it is well within their MOE.  It is consistent with about a one point lean to the Democrats.

I give Rasmussen a higher bias to the GOP, but again, not by a lot.

Frankly, those are the two best pollsters that publish routinely that are out there.  Mason Dixon also tends to be very good, but they don't publish as often.

My rule of thumb is basically, actual result is the race is actually Rasmussen R -2, PPP D -1.
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J. J.

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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2012, 09:02:13 pm »
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Well, it's PPP, so that's still more like Obama+1... Still good news on balance. Virginia is slightly more republican than the nation as a whole, so it might be a sign that Romney's bounce didn't make the race a pure tossup. I guess this would translate into Obama+2 nationwide, which is "dangerous territory" but not quite a dead heat.

I'd say Obama +2.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2012, 09:05:06 pm »
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WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

That statement is 100% correct!

Just look at the maps for the Walker recall for the GOP extreme, Obama 08 for the Dem and Kerry 04/Gore 00 for the middle point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2012, 10:01:18 pm »
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This is what I go on:

Quote
Virginia Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

The reality:

Quote
Q8 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 4%
Virgil Goode .................................................... 1%
Jill Stein .......................................................... 0%
Undecided....................................................... 2%

The two things that won't go away:
Quote
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

And something of transitory concern:

Quote
Q6 Who do you think won the debate between
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this week?
Barack Obama................................................ 28%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 61%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2012, 10:45:54 pm »
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WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.
It's not the only one.
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« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2012, 11:21:34 pm »
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I know this probably won't be popular to post.. but I'll go ahead and say that this poll shows Dems having a +6 Party ID advantage... same as 08... it is also 3 points more Dem than PPP's sample in September. Not a great poll for Romney, but not a terrible one either.
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Miles
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« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2012, 11:24:42 pm »
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New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-7

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2012, 12:00:24 am »
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Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic.

Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession.
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J. J.
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« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2012, 12:03:27 am »
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Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic.

Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession.

Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote.
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J. J.

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« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2012, 12:05:05 am »
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Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic.

Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession.

Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote.

Yes, which is the main reason that re-weighting for party ID can be really problematic.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2012, 12:06:22 am »
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Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic.

Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession.

Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote.

But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead.
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« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2012, 12:06:56 am »
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I think it's more accurate to say that how someone will vote is possibly the greatest factor in determining party ID.
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« Reply #46 on: October 08, 2012, 12:07:32 am »
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The gap is slowly closing.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2012, 12:10:25 am »
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Important point -

Quote
Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr

Keep hope alive, fellas. Wink

This is the most important point made by this poll. The job's report killed Romney's bounce!
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: October 08, 2012, 12:18:51 am »
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The gap is slowly closing.

No, the gap closed.... we'll see if there's further closing in future polls. There's just as much chance that Obama moves out again, than Romney closing in further.
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« Reply #49 on: October 08, 2012, 12:20:57 am »
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But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead.

Party ID, which in some way is a measure of attitudes, is a demographic, i.e. "a single vital or social statistic of a human population."  http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/demographic


It obviously is a "social statistic," much like religious preference.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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