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Author Topic: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47  (Read 1141 times)
Clinton1996
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« on: October 07, 2012, 07:16:12 pm »
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PPP has tweeted that Obama is still ahead. No numbers yet. But soon.

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Y'all asked for a preview of Virginia so here it is: Obama is still ahead there. Final numbers soon

EDIT: Obama 50-47. Romney got his 2 point bounce, up from 51-46 3 weeks ago.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html
1) Obama leads 52-44 among women and trails by only 1, 49-48 among men.
2) He's down 57-40 among white voters but up 59-34 among nonwhite voters.
3) Those under 40 support Obama 59-38, so VA might become a blue state in the next 20 years.
4) The only thing making it close is Romney's huge lead, 59-43, among the group most likely to vote. Old Folk.

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Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama.
The reason the race hasn't moved much despite the improvement in Romney's image is that Obama's held steady over the last three weeks in spite of his poor debate performance. 3 weeks ago 50% of Virginians approved of him and 48% disapproved. Now 50% of Virginians approve of him and 48% disapprove. There's been no movement whatsoever in perceptions of his job performance. Obama has a 50/47 advantage over Romney in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, and a 51/46 edge on foreign policy.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2012, 08:55:44 pm by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »Logged

LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2012, 07:16:47 pm »
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Good news Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 07:19:04 pm »
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Good Fuc*ing news!!
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Ty440
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 07:19:55 pm »
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lol.. couldn't wait until the actual numbers to post huh

I was gonna post this too but decided to wait
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 07:21:00 pm »
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Good Fuc*ing news!!
Good news Smiley
I wouldn't celebrate yet. They haven't teased much which means its an extremely close race. But as Joe Scarborough says, A Wins A Wins A Win.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2012, 07:23:56 pm by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »Logged

J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2012, 07:22:30 pm »
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If it more than +1, he is.
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J. J.

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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2012, 07:22:59 pm »
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If it more than +1, he is.

By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead?  Why +1?  (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.)
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2012, 07:34:24 pm »
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Obama leads 50-47, compared to 51-46 in September. Not bad.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 07:35:30 pm »
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If it more than +1, he is.

By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead?  Why +1?  (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.)

PPP has a slight D bias.  +2 or better, Obama is still holding VA.  +1, and it is a tossup.
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J. J.

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 07:35:42 pm »
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago
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oakvale
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:00 pm »
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago

I will now accept my accolades.
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:18 pm »
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago

+3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:47 pm »
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2 points. Yup.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Ty440
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2012, 07:41:59 pm »
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In a state that Bob Freaking Dole carried in 1996, Romney is in a dogfight in a must win key state. This can't be good for republicans no matter how you spin it.

This is not your father's Old Dominion.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2012, 07:45:48 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2012, 07:50:43 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2012, 07:52:11 pm »
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago

+3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually.

Agreed.  They said it has been the closest this year.  I do want to see the internals.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2012, 07:53:09 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

It doesn't surprise me. Virginia has been perhaps the fastest Democratic-trending state of the past 5-6 years. I think it's more or less reached stability, but could become 1-2 points more Democratic by 2016.

This is great news. There's no way Romney can win without OH/VA, unless he sweeps NC, WI, FL, IA, NV, CO & one of the following - MN, NH, PA, MI or NM.
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 07:53:55 pm »
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I said to a friend that was panicking about WI and 'oh God what about VA!' my argument was that VA has been a LOT more stable than WI this year.
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2012, 07:57:31 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all.
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 07:58:34 pm »
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What about Goode?
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oakvale
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 07:59:33 pm »
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Important point -

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Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr

Keep hope alive, fellas. Wink
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2012, 08:01:44 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though.

Yes, that was the case. The Virginia poll included more "normal" days than the Wisconsin one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2012, 08:09:55 pm »
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If the right-leaning snap polls by Gravis, Rasmussen, and We Ask America soon after the debate were valid, then  the PPP poll in Virginia (PPP is as good as any except perhaps Selzer) suggests that the Romney campaign is in deep trouble.

The bump that President Obama got for offing Osama bin Laden was also short-lived. 
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2012, 08:13:28 pm »
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It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all.

This is correct, but it is way too simplistic to just say "white people" and be done with it. Virginia has a lot of southern whites who are voting for Romney no matter what and liberals up in NOVA who are voting for Obama no matter what. Add in a bunch of Blacks and Puerto Ricans and you have a fairly stable electorate. In Wisconsin you have the northern half of the state being working class whites living in small, but industrial, towns with no racial tension. These are quintessential swing voters.
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