PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47
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  PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47
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Author Topic: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47  (Read 2864 times)
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« on: October 07, 2012, 07:16:12 PM »
« edited: October 07, 2012, 08:55:44 PM by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »

PPP has tweeted that Obama is still ahead. No numbers yet. But soon.

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EDIT: Obama 50-47. Romney got his 2 point bounce, up from 51-46 3 weeks ago.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html
1) Obama leads 52-44 among women and trails by only 1, 49-48 among men.
2) He's down 57-40 among white voters but up 59-34 among nonwhite voters.
3) Those under 40 support Obama 59-38, so VA might become a blue state in the next 20 years.
4) The only thing making it close is Romney's huge lead, 59-43, among the group most likely to vote. Old Folk.

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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2012, 07:16:47 PM »

Good news Smiley
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 07:19:04 PM »

Good Fuc*ing news!!
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Ty440
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 07:19:55 PM »

lol.. couldn't wait until the actual numbers to post huh

I was gonna post this too but decided to wait
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 07:21:00 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2012, 07:23:56 PM by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »

I wouldn't celebrate yet. They haven't teased much which means its an extremely close race. But as Joe Scarborough says, A Wins A Wins A Win.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2012, 07:22:30 PM »

If it more than +1, he is.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2012, 07:22:59 PM »


By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead?  Why +1?  (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2012, 07:34:24 PM »

Obama leads 50-47, compared to 51-46 in September. Not bad.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 07:35:30 PM »


By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead?  Why +1?  (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.)

PPP has a slight D bias.  +2 or better, Obama is still holding VA.  +1, and it is a tossup.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 07:35:42 PM »

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Oakvale
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:00 PM »


I will now accept my accolades.
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TrapperHawk
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:18 PM »


+3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 07:37:47 PM »

2 points. Yup.
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Ty440
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2012, 07:41:59 PM »

In a state that Bob Freaking Dole carried in 1996, Romney is in a dogfight in a must win key state. This can't be good for republicans no matter how you spin it.

This is not your father's Old Dominion.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2012, 07:45:48 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?
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TrapperHawk
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2012, 07:50:43 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2012, 07:52:11 PM »


+3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually.

Agreed.  They said it has been the closest this year.  I do want to see the internals.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2012, 07:53:09 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

It doesn't surprise me. Virginia has been perhaps the fastest Democratic-trending state of the past 5-6 years. I think it's more or less reached stability, but could become 1-2 points more Democratic by 2016.

This is great news. There's no way Romney can win without OH/VA, unless he sweeps NC, WI, FL, IA, NV, CO & one of the following - MN, NH, PA, MI or NM.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 07:53:55 PM »

I said to a friend that was panicking about WI and 'oh God what about VA!' my argument was that VA has been a LOT more stable than WI this year.
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koenkai
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2012, 07:57:31 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all.
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memphis
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 07:58:34 PM »

What about Goode?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 07:59:33 PM »

Important point -

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Keep hope alive, fellas. Wink
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2012, 08:01:44 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though.

Yes, that was the case. The Virginia poll included more "normal" days than the Wisconsin one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2012, 08:09:55 PM »

If the right-leaning snap polls by Gravis, Rasmussen, and We Ask America soon after the debate were valid, then  the PPP poll in Virginia (PPP is as good as any except perhaps Selzer) suggests that the Romney campaign is in deep trouble.

The bump that President Obama got for offing Osama bin Laden was also short-lived. 
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Sbane
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2012, 08:13:28 PM »

It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?

Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all.

This is correct, but it is way too simplistic to just say "white people" and be done with it. Virginia has a lot of southern whites who are voting for Romney no matter what and liberals up in NOVA who are voting for Obama no matter what. Add in a bunch of Blacks and Puerto Ricans and you have a fairly stable electorate. In Wisconsin you have the northern half of the state being working class whites living in small, but industrial, towns with no racial tension. These are quintessential swing voters.
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