POLITICO weekly tracking poll: Obama+2

[Niemeyerite]

"Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats."

It's not the first survey to say that.

if republicans are more enthousiasts than democrats and if they consequently will turn out in big numbers (party id like in 2004 or 2010), Romney has a good shot to win.

It doesn't matter if all of them vote.