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Author Topic: Obama has regained most of what he lost in the debate  (Read 617 times)
Devils30
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« on: October 08, 2012, 01:05:32 pm »
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We all know it was a terrible debate showing by the President but the jobs report appears to have had a solid countereffect. The evidence suggests Romney peaked on Friday but sharply receded to a point close to the pre-debate numbers afterwards.

Rasmussen: had a 4 point jump for Mitt on friday, today it is tied and tomorrow will likely be friendlier to Obama once Friday's numbers are replaced by todays. Numbers from Iowa and Colorado actually more Obama friendly than two weeks ago. Obama approval also too high to be in the "Romney victory" category.

Gallup: Romney did well Friday but slipped today in the seven day tracker. The three day tracker likely has the same Friday Romney friendly sample. Also, Obama's approval went up sharply today to 51/44, this includes Friday as well.

PPP: They tweeted and pretty much said everything mentioned above. The 3 point Virginia Obama lead with Friday included is ominous for Mitt.

Politico/Battleground: Not sure what days included but their last poll was closer than others. Only about a 1 point Romney gain.

The media has yet to pick up on this but at the moment it is a close race but definitely not a tied race.
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Citizen Alfred
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 01:09:05 pm »
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It's still not totally back to pre-debate levels; I doubt it ever will be. Ohio was lean-Obama before the debate, now it's pretty much a tossup.

But yeah, the debate bounce appears to be fading a bit.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 01:10:51 pm »
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Given that the first flurry of state polls were 'Friday centric' and the companies were somewhat more sympathetic traditionally to Romney it is possible the 'bounce' was in fact minimal. Obama was leading in many states by a larger amount than a swing of even 2% to Romney could damage which make the Ohio polls and Florida poll look off; we still need to get polls from those states to give us a clearer picture.

To quote myself:

It's important to remember that regardless what lead Obama has had during the campaign whether it's level with Romney, up 2 points or up 5 he has always outperformed Romney in the swing states. His national lead may have bounced up and down in August/September but didn't really affect his lead in states like Ohio which had been scarily constant. His electoral college numbers also remained constant. When Rasmussen had him down 2 points to Romney last month he still performed well in the state polls.

However we've had some interesting post debate polls that suggest his lead in Florida and Virginia have been eliminated and in danger in Ohio. Those would be worrying signs, but they are 'snapshot' polls so we need more out of these states to be sure.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 01:12:32 pm »
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I wouldn't freak out too much if Romney gains in Ohio. Ohio really isnt the type of state that should be D+2 relative to the whole country and its expected if its at the national average. I think Obama will win Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire by more than he wins Ohio. Possibly even Virginia too. Heck, that's what happened in 2008.
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Duke
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 01:14:03 pm »
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The next debate is crucial for both candidates. Romney needs a great showing to continue his 'comeback' of sorts, and Obama needs a great performance to stop the bleeding. In fact, the election might be decided after this next one. If Obama does well, I think he has this in the bag. If he struggles again, Romney could start running away with things.

The third debate is usually the least watched, so I expect it will have a minimal impact regardless of how it goes.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 01:18:37 pm »
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I think the format makes it tough for Obama to struggle again. The town hall requires him to walk around so he can't fall asleep!
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Duke
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 01:20:55 pm »
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I think the format makes it tough for Obama to struggle again. The town hall requires him to walk around so he can't fall asleep!

True. I don't know what to expect really. Romney surprised me with his demeanor last time. In 2004, I knew town halls were Bush's strength because he was generally more likable than Kerry. I don't find Mittens or Obama really likable, so I really can't predict who will win this one. Townhalls are still a change from Obama's strength of delivering a pre-written speech.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 01:22:58 pm »
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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/255367755317002241

.@markos says new PPP national poll he'll release tomorrow has Romney ahead. This will be first non-Rasmussen lead for Romney since August.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2012, 01:25:02 pm »
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And yet I'm sure this is Friday heavy as well.
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NHI
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 01:27:45 pm »
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The next debate is crucial for both candidates. Romney needs a great showing to continue his 'comeback' of sorts, and Obama needs a great performance to stop the bleeding. In fact, the election might be decided after this next one. If Obama does well, I think he has this in the bag. If he struggles again, Romney could start running away with things.

The third debate is usually the least watched, so I expect it will have a minimal impact regardless of how it goes.

Agreed. The second debate will be an opportunity for Romney to move closer towards sealing the deal, and for Obama as a chance to regain his footing. I think an easier task for Romney than Obama.
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2012, 01:28:49 pm »
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And yet I'm sure this is Friday heavy as well.
It was. He says the calls were made Thursday and Friday. Very R-Friendly days.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 01:31:05 pm by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »Logged

Duke
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2012, 01:28:53 pm »
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And yet I'm sure this is Friday heavy as well.


Maybe, but I doubt Obama is back to where he was before the debate like it never happened... that's simply wishful thinking.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 01:31:31 pm »
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Not completely but Obama's approvals sure haven't taken a hit. The jobs report really gives Obama more ammo for the next debate and took away one of Romney's favorite lines. Nate Silver might be proven correct when he said Romney's base strategy had a ceiling around 48.7%.
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Duke
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2012, 01:44:03 pm »
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Not completely but Obama's approvals sure haven't taken a hit. The jobs report really gives Obama more ammo for the next debate and took away one of Romney's favorite lines. Nate Silver might be proven correct when he said Romney's base strategy had a ceiling around 48.7%.

I don't think his approvals would take a hit... just his support in the election. His approvals were already under 50%.

And the jobs number, okay, he may bring that out, but Romney can still hit him on the labor force shrinking, the fact that the job numbers have been declining since this summer, the fact that most of those jobs are part-time, our GDP is growing at a measly 1.3%... so they really are not much "ammo." That's the problem - Obama has little to run on.

What he has to do in the debate is call Romney out on some of the inaccurate things he says, which he utterly failed to do in the first debate, and hope it sticks. He really can't run on how great things are, because they aren't, even if it isn't totally his fault that the US is still struggling. He can take credit for our recovery from the great recession, but that may not make much headway with independents. He will have to paint Romney as dishonest and unable to handle the job to win the debate.
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 02:03:05 pm »
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Most of the approval polls today have him at 50-51
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Lief
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2012, 02:07:08 pm »
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Obama's approval seems to have stabilized at around 50 percent: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2012, 03:11:22 pm »
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But the myth about debates having a big effect will continue on.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2012, 04:12:02 pm »
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Debates don't matter says Al Gore in 2000, GHW Bush in 1992, and Ron Reagan in 1980. 

I just love these Naive Liberals, "Obama is the best no matter what my lying eyes and ears tell me!" 

If he talks like a awful candidate, if he walks like an awful candidate, he's an awful president.  Wake up!
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2012, 04:21:21 pm »
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Pew would like a word.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2012, 04:26:39 pm »
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Pew would like a word.

Gallup would love to debate that.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2012, 04:34:17 pm »
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Pew would like a word.

Gallup would love to debate that.

Gallup is showing a tossup in post-debate polls among RVs (Pew is LVs), so no, not really.  Just a bit less movement than wobbly Pew is showing.

Mainly just making a rhetorical point.
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2012, 04:37:01 pm »
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This Pew poll just threw off the media. Rasmussen and Gallup were showing movement back towards the President, now the narrative is gonna be "Romney Swipes Lead From Obama".
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They call me PR
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2012, 04:41:10 pm »
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Pew sucks.
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