Where is the race right now? w/ maps
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Author Topic: Where is the race right now? w/ maps  (Read 2484 times)
opebo
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« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2012, 09:20:29 AM »

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:



But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #26 on: October 09, 2012, 10:29:06 AM »



No Tossups:


Electoral Vote:
Obama - 272
Romney - 266

Popular Vote:
Romney/Ryan - 49.62%
Obama/Biden - 49.04%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #27 on: October 09, 2012, 11:12:25 AM »



No Tossups:


Electoral Vote:
Obama - 272
Romney - 266

Popular Vote:
Romney/Ryan - 49.62%
Obama/Biden - 49.04%

This, with the EV/PV split, but flip CO and VA.  One is much more into the federal government than the other.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2012, 11:22:56 AM »

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:



But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:


This is dead on. 

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         
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Erc
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« Reply #29 on: October 09, 2012, 11:31:53 AM »

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Is there any evidence that the Romney campaign is even thinking about moving into PA again?  If somehow he ends up winning the state, it would be as part of a 300+ EV win anyway.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2012, 11:48:53 AM »

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Is there any evidence that the Romney campaign is even thinking about moving into PA again?  If somehow he ends up winning the state, it would be as part of a 300+ EV win anyway.

I don't know, they will take a hard look at all the numbers they can for sure, in order to figure out if a shift is really happening.
From my perspective, having witnessed the transformation in Wisconsin a few years ago, PA is perhaps the most similar state to Wisconsin from a 'cultural nation' perspective.  This could be the real deal, not just the trap it is every election.  So the state might 'change' position from a 300+ win to a "new" Wisconsin/Colorado/Ohio that only needs around a 1%ish PV victory. 
It's an interesting gambit whether to expand the map or consolidate gains!       

I really like this ad for PA and I would like a new one for sure. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-44o5Dn6V98

 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2012, 12:09:59 PM »

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:



But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:


This is dead on. 

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Careful with extrapolating.  If the volatility of the undecideds tells us anything, it's that we could easily be back to September numbers if Romney loses a debate.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #32 on: October 09, 2012, 12:13:54 PM »



Romney: 50.1%
Obama: 47.9%
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #33 on: October 09, 2012, 12:19:20 PM »

In a dream of mine last night, this was the map:

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #34 on: October 09, 2012, 02:22:32 PM »



This may be a high water mark for a while, but here we are.
*Iowa is probably R or toss today, but we have no polling/info.   
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opebo
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« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2012, 02:31:45 PM »

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #36 on: October 09, 2012, 02:41:11 PM »

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.
To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 
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opebo
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« Reply #37 on: October 09, 2012, 02:46:01 PM »

To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.
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Vosem
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« Reply #38 on: October 09, 2012, 02:48:38 PM »


My map is this, but flip CO and OH. Another couple of days of debate coverage may be enough to flip the state, but I don't think Romney's quite there yet.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #39 on: October 09, 2012, 03:04:22 PM »

To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.

In my travel through the state (anecdotal evidence) most Hispanics weren't politically engaged.  They were far less engaged than the other two groups.  The democrat Hispanics who hold office or run organizations obviously have networks of support, but they don't reach all of the population by any means.  Wild Card factor is the female Hispanic Republican Governor who can dispel a lot of the race baiting ideology dems rely on.           
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #40 on: October 09, 2012, 03:15:39 PM »

In a dream of mine last night, this was the map:



Which states were the closest?  It looks like what I would expect for, say, Julian Castro/Sherrod Brown narrowly defeating Ryan/Ayotte in 2020.  Extremely farfetched for 2012, though.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #41 on: October 09, 2012, 09:45:29 PM »

Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is
Obama 281
Romney 257
From now on its all about Ohio or less likely (NV plus IA) or (WI plus NH) etc
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #42 on: October 09, 2012, 09:55:11 PM »

Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is


uh.....I choose to not watch the debate, so I must have missed something. Did Romney verbally rape Obama on stage or something to the effect?
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #43 on: October 09, 2012, 10:51:39 PM »

Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is


uh.....I choose to not watch the debate, so I must have missed something. Did Romney verbally rape Obama on stage or something to the effect?

It was something like a 35 to 0 football game.  Romney smoked him in every aspect.   
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #44 on: October 09, 2012, 10:58:43 PM »

I might be a little optimistic with WI and OH. I still think VA is at least pink in this scenario, Romney needs to sharpen his whistling skills a lot to play the race card there properly, the supply of racist enough whites that were going to vote for Obama was not large enough.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #45 on: October 09, 2012, 11:01:25 PM »


Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.
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memphis
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« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2012, 11:11:36 PM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #47 on: October 09, 2012, 11:15:47 PM »


Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.

If Romney is leading 2% nationally, there's no way that he doesn't win the electoral college as well... those electoral votes need to come from somewhere...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: October 09, 2012, 11:49:43 PM »


Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.

If Romney is leading 2% nationally, there's no way that he doesn't win the electoral college as well... those electoral votes need to come from somewhere...

Actually... considering how Obama over-performed in on the coasts, the Mid-West and the swing states... it's plausible...

But considering the reputable swing-state polling is telling us a slightly different story to a 2% national lead...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2012, 12:07:25 AM »



Based on 538.com forecasts.
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