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| | |-+  Where is the race right now? w/ maps
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Author Topic: Where is the race right now? w/ maps  (Read 1309 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: October 08, 2012, 05:46:42 pm »
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A week ago we knew where the race was. Obama had a good lead of about 3%, maybe more and lead in all the swing states except maybe NC. Since the debate there has been a lot of polling, some showing huge swing to Romney, others showing smaller swings and then there is some indication of a stabalizing or maybe a swing back. Its confusing.

So where do you think the race is right now in terms of PV and EV?
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NE Caretaker Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 05:58:19 pm »
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332-206

49.5%/47.5%

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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 06:19:45 pm »
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294 - 191 - 53
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 06:45:54 pm »
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We need a public option

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Simfan34
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 06:56:34 pm »
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Obama 271 - 206 Romney

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Snowstalker
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 06:58:52 pm »
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Obama 271 - 206 Romney



This, pretty much.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 07:01:12 pm »
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 07:17:41 pm »
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If the election were held today, then I predict
Obama 49.9
Romney 48.9
Other 1.2

EV is Obama 284/Romney 254




And what's with those leaving states in grey? Make the call! It's not like there is any money on it.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 07:19:19 pm by Big Bird Voter »Logged

Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2012, 07:39:38 pm »
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Romney: 275
Obama: 263
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Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 07:42:40 pm »
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2012, 07:44:24 pm »
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Obama 50.3, Romney 48.6, Others 1.1:
Obama 303, Romney 235



Close States:
OH: Obama +2.3
PA: Obama +6.2
VA: Obama +2.1
WI: Obama +4.3
IA: Obama +3.1
NV: Obama +5.5
CO: Obama +3.4
NH: Obama +1.8
FL: Romney +0.7
NC: Romney +3.5
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2012, 07:54:48 pm »
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Same as it ever was, minus maybe NC which might lean Romney now. Maybe not. Hard to say at the moment.
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 07:57:38 pm »
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Cory
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2012, 08:41:06 pm »
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I'll just go ahead and post on behalf of Politico and Winfield, they deserve a break:

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 08:58:09 pm »
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NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2012, 09:05:41 pm »
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NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2012, 10:17:23 pm »
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NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no
It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 
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NE Caretaker Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2012, 10:23:30 pm »
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NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no
It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 

I halfway agree with this. There are some strong Democratic fundamentals in Pennsylvania that make it a fairly solid bastion despite being closer than states like NM at times. Had Voter ID been upheld, then it might have been a different story. I think Michigan should be considered on par with Pennsylvania, however; New Mexico could still be a flip-flopper but not in this current climate.
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2012, 11:24:48 pm »
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Romney's so called  bounce seems to be fading already
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2012, 01:13:46 am »
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WI, MI and PA are "slight/lean" Obama.
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Tidus
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2012, 04:25:31 am »
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afleitch
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2012, 06:12:12 am »
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This.

Obama is probably up around 2 points nationally. This time last month he was also up 2 points and led in all the above states. Last week he may have been up 4-5 points and led in all the above states. When he was tied with Romney, or close to it around the time of the RNC he was ahead in all of the above states (Florida excluded perhaps) An Obama lead of anything in the range of 0 to 5 points doesn't really shift any of these states either way. We've had no serious polling from Florida nor any post Friday polling from Ohio so we have to wait and see however even if Romney was up 1-2 points nationally it's possible, just possible that Obama would still lead the Electoral College.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2012, 07:09:26 am »
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This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

 
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opebo
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2012, 09:14:11 am »
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This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

Very good.  I like where you put New Hampshire and Nevada - realistic I think.  I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

Yeah, I don't think its really very realistic to include MI, PA, or (particularly) NM in this type of analysis.
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Lief
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« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2012, 09:16:20 am »
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I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.
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