Where is the race right now? w/ maps

[Likely Voter]

A week ago we knew where the race was. Obama had a good lead of about 3%, maybe more and lead in all the swing states except maybe NC. Since the debate there has been a lot of polling, some showing huge swing to Romney, others showing smaller swings and then there is some indication of a stabalizing or maybe a swing back. Its confusing.

So where do you think the race is right now in terms of PV and EV?

[GM Griffin]

332-206

49.5%/47.5%

[Secretary Polnut]

294 - 191 - 53

[Comrade Funk]

[Simfan34]

Obama 271 - 206 Romney

[Senator Snowstalker]

Obama 271 - 206 Romney

This, pretty much.

[ModerateCoward]

[Likely Voter]

If the election were held today, then I predict
Obama 49.9
Romney 48.9
Other 1.2

EV is Obama 284/Romney 254




And what's with those leaving states in grey? Make the call! It's not like there is any money on it.

[Reaganfan]

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

[Marokai]

[Devils30]

Obama 50.3, Romney 48.6, Others 1.1:
Obama 303, Romney 235



Close States:
OH: Obama +2.3
PA: Obama +6.2
VA: Obama +2.1
WI: Obama +4.3
IA: Obama +3.1
NV: Obama +5.5
CO: Obama +3.4
NH: Obama +1.8
FL: Romney +0.7
NC: Romney +3.5

[realisticidealist]

Same as it ever was, minus maybe NC which might lean Romney now. Maybe not. Hard to say at the moment.

[Big Wiggly Style]

[Cory]

I'll just go ahead and post on behalf of Politico and Winfield, they deserve a break:

[AmericanNation]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

[Pacific Councillor LiberalJunkie]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no

[AmericanNation]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no

It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 

[GM Griffin]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no

It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 

I halfway agree with this. There are some strong Democratic fundamentals in Pennsylvania that make it a fairly solid bastion despite being closer than states like NM at times. Had Voter ID been upheld, then it might have been a different story. I think Michigan should be considered on par with Pennsylvania, however; New Mexico could still be a flip-flopper but not in this current climate.

[technical support]

Romney's so called  bounce seems to be fading already

[Tender Branson]

WI, MI and PA are "slight/lean" Obama.

[Tidus]

[afleitch]

This.

Obama is probably up around 2 points nationally. This time last month he was also up 2 points and led in all the above states. Last week he may have been up 4-5 points and led in all the above states. When he was tied with Romney, or close to it around the time of the RNC he was ahead in all of the above states (Florida excluded perhaps) An Obama lead of anything in the range of 0 to 5 points doesn't really shift any of these states either way. We've had no serious polling from Florida nor any post Friday polling from Ohio so we have to wait and see however even if Romney was up 1-2 points nationally it's possible, just possible that Obama would still lead the Electoral College.

[AmericanNation]

This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

 

[opebo]

This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

Very good.  I like where you put New Hampshire and Nevada - realistic I think.  I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

Yeah, I don't think its really very realistic to include MI, PA, or (particularly) NM in this type of analysis.

[Lief]

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.