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| | |-+  2012 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
| | | |-+  ND: Mason-Dixon: Tied at 47%.
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Author Topic: ND: Mason-Dixon: Tied at 47%.  (Read 400 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: October 08, 2012, 07:11:15 pm »
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Berg (R) - 47%
Heitkamp (D) - 47%

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/toss_up_in_north_dakota.html
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Lіef
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 07:12:27 pm »
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This one might take a while to call on election night.
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 07:36:48 pm »
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People like Heidi

People don't like Rick but he's a Republican

So what will people do.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 09:00:25 pm »
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Do we know how many people moved to the state from 2008-2012Sep? I think it could be something like 30-40k and I suspect those recent transplants would be more inclined to break for Berg than people who've been in North Dakota for longer than that.

I don't really get why Conrad retired. He was in a much better position than Ben Nelson.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 09:03:49 pm »
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Not sure how many moved in but I believe there has been a spike because of the oil fields. That should really help Berg.
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 09:05:57 pm »
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Wow, Berg could really blow this
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brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 09:35:53 pm »
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Net domestic migration for North Dakota from 2010 to 2011 was 6,368. From 2008 to 2009 it was 1,896. I'm not going to look up other years but this argues for about 20,000 net immigrants since the oil boom began.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 09:43:39 pm »
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In 2008, polls suggested Obama might even beat McCain - Obama actually led in the final Atlas polling average. However, McCain still won by 9 points. That's why I think that as long as Berg is only trailing by a point or two, he'll be able to win on Election Day.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2012, 10:00:24 pm »
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Net domestic migration for North Dakota from 2010 to 2011 was 6,368. From 2008 to 2009 it was 1,896. I'm not going to look up other years but this argues for about 20,000 net immigrants since the oil boom began.

Yeah I had a feeling my numbers were too high. I still give the edge to Berg but I'm open to pleasant surprises Tongue
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Fargobison
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 10:06:56 pm »
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Berg is doing really well in the western half the state, which honestly might have a lot more vote then is being accounted for. Nobody really has a good feel as to just how many people are living out west.

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Senator-elect Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2012, 10:16:09 pm »
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I'm not so sure that a correlation can be drawn between the oil boom and an influx of likely Republican voters. Many of these workers have to share apartments, sleep in campers and bathe at truck stops due to a lack of housing. It could be very likely that many of these people will not vote. Now, if we knew from where the newly-arrived workers were coming...
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Fargobison
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2012, 10:39:01 pm »
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I'm not so sure that a correlation can be drawn between the oil boom and an influx of likely Republican voters. Many of these workers have to share apartments, sleep in campers and bathe at truck stops due to a lack of housing. It could be very likely that many of these people will not vote. Now, if we knew from where the newly-arrived workers were coming...

I can agree with that. It is hard to get a feel for just what might happen, it is one big wildcard.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 10:59:55 pm »
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It's a huge stretch to assume that all the oil workers are Republicans. I have met people here moving to the oil fields (which is funny considering how big ND->Minnesota migration was in when I was in high school), and we all know I don't know many Republicans. Many are not even citizens (my friend met her husband when he was here working for an oil transporter, and he's from South Africa), like with any low skilled manual labor job a bunch are probably illegals (which make up a lot of staff in retail and restaurants in North Dakota now, my brother used to work in the kitchen of a Chinese restaurant where he was the only fluent English speaker in the kitchen), and even those legal to vote might just not be very motivated if they are drifter types. That said anyone over 18 with an ND driver's license can vote if they opt to do so.
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2012, 06:23:00 am »
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A lot of people working on projects like that don't vote, or at least don't vote where they work.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2012, 08:08:39 am »
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Are they really not gonna do exit polls here?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2012, 09:24:34 am »
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Are they really not gonna do exit polls here?

Indeed. A shame that.
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2012, 09:57:13 am »
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A lot of people working on projects like that don't vote, or at least don't vote where they work.

Absolutely.  The last thing on these unfortunate people's minds is a senate election in the backwater in which they're serving time.  They serve time in these hell-holes for one pipe-dream - to save money to try to 'escape poverty' - they work obscene numbers of hours, live in horrific conditions, and don't have time to care about the locals voting.
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