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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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Author Topic: Does anyone else think...  (Read 334 times)
vern1988
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« on: October 08, 2012, 10:39:47 pm »
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That the polls all suck and we truly have no clue what the race looks like.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 11:21:28 pm »
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A lot is up in the air this year. Most of the time, only a few states a truly a tossup. This year, I can't say in full confidence how Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire would vote.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 11:24:57 pm »
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That the polls all suck and we truly have no clue what the race looks like.

Yup. You basically summed up my view.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 11:33:36 pm »
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I think a few things this year in particular have been problematic...

* The delay between events and their appearance in the polls... or at least the expectation that polls will be done quickly and we can get an idea of the impact... then the news cycle moves so quickly the polls start to be out of date... which then creates other problems
* The apparent discrepancy between national and swing-state polling... (both ways)
* Applying differing likely voter screens, applying those screens at disparate times and over different time periods... so it kind of requires people to understand all of those dynamics to make any sense of the polls...

So I think we can see some 'trends' that have gone on this year, but I'll agree that we certainly don't have the clear picture we had in 2008...
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 11:35:58 pm by Former President Polnut »Logged


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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 11:34:04 pm »
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I'm done trying to predict the race at this point. I'm just along for the ride. I will say that there has been no change in the fundamentals, though. Obama is beset by a variety of bad economic factors that would indicate a loss, yet he's still ahead due to the fact that he's likable.

I would like to throw out the idea that Romney could win the popular vote while lose the electoral vote. He's not going to get Ohio unless there is another movement in his favor. If he's truly tied with Obama nationally, though, I wouldn't discount the idea, especially considering that undecideds typically break in favor of the challenger...
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 11:45:41 pm »
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considering that undecideds typically break in favor of the challenger...

John Kerry would like to talk to you.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 11:50:10 pm »
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considering that undecideds typically break in favor of the challenger...

John Kerry would like to talk to you.

As would Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, and George McGovern. 
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2012, 12:10:40 am »
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considering that undecideds typically break in favor of the challenger...

John Kerry would like to talk to you.

As would Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, and George McGovern. 

"Typically." Undecideds broke for Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992, and Dole in 1996. Not to mention the many races not for president... the only recent major examples I remember of this not being the case is NV-Sen 2010 and IL-Gov 2010. And that's because the two challengers were crazy. I suspect that most who are undecided right now aren't enthused with Romney, but are weary of voting for Obama again. I think that the former will win out.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2012, 12:18:21 am »
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I think the "Obama media effect" has skewed the polls by making the election more about "Obama's popular personality" than the real issues.  Obama campaigned on Grand naive ideas in 2008 and promised everything.  I think actual governing has worn him down, and he's no longer capable of promising grandiose things because he knows its not possible or maybe he's out of ideas.  He really can't point to any huge economic successes other than saying "things could have been worse"

But as I said, the polls reflect "personality popularity" and not necessarily "voting popularity" or even "governing popularity."  A lot of fairweather voters just support the President out of habit because they aren't very familiar with Romney or the Republican candidates.  Plus, given that Romney is from the Northeast, most of the country is unfamiliar with him.  

The liberal media until the debate has been enormously harsh and dismissive of Romney.  The media hasn't treated Romney as a true contender or a viable contender; and they've gone soft in their criticism of Obama's job performance.  This has helped create an "Obama media bubble in polling."  

But I liked the SNL parody that had "fake Obama" taking questions from "unemployed Obama supporters" - its so realistic yet so sad for this country, that the only honest critique of Obama is done by SNL comedians, and the not the liberal commentators.  
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Wolfentoad
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2012, 12:22:19 am »
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I think the "Obama media effect" has skewed the polls by making the election more about "Obama's popular personality" than the real issues.  Obama campaigned on Grand naive ideas in 2008 and promised everything.  I think actual governing has worn him down, and he's no longer capable of promising grandiose things because he knows its not possible or maybe he's out of ideas.  He really can't point to any huge economic successes other than saying "things could have been worse"

Milhouse, are you aware that this is not original, and that every uneducated Republican says this every day? Seriously, why even post this. So many stupid people say this, and you are not contributing by repeating it. Just be quiet!
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I will stay home in this next election if we do not have a conservative tea party patriot. I have had enough RINOS
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