OH, ARG: Romney in the lead

[krazen1211]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html

Romney 48
Obama 47


Great news! Poll is Friday - Monday.

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Ohio President by ARG on 2012-10-08

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[afleitch]

Thats Romney up 1 and Obama down 1 since their last poll a month ago.

[Phony Moderate]

One problem: It's ARG.

[afleitch]

One problem: It's ARG.

True, but it tells us something interesting. They had Obama up by just 1 point here when others were giving him a 5-7 point lead last month. This poll also includes 'Friday' and yet it generates just a small shift to Romney flipping the lead. Without Friday there may not have been a shift at all.

[tmthforu94]

Sample:
Democrats - 42%
Republicans - 33%
Independents - 25%

Romney leads Independents by almost 20 points.

Just doing some quick exit poll research, CBS 2010 Exit Poll had 37 GOP, 36 Democratic, 28 Independent. CNN 2008 was Democrats 39, Republicans 31, Independents 30.

[DrScholl]

Yeah, anything with Friday probably is useless unless polling confirms a shifting outside of that time frame.

That said, only a one point shift toward Romney is weak for a Republican leaning pollster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ARG = burn

There are rules.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Just so our new members know, every poll from now on is apparently a junk poll.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

[Eraserhead]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

I think they're about even right now. But come on, bro. ARG really is pretty bad.

[Oakvale]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

I'd say Romney is leading nationally, sure, but it's not like we're calling PPP or someone junk... it's ARG.

[krazen1211]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

I'd say Romney is leading nationally, sure, but it's not like we're calling PPP or someone junk... it's ARG.

PPP has Romney leading 49-47 nationally. Ohio at 48-47 is directly in line with the former number.

[Franzl]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

Which is it now? You change your view on this every few hours, it seems.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

Which is it now? You change your view on this every few hours, it seems.

I had some hope over the weekend when it looked like Romney's bounce was receding, but since then I've been in near constant despair.

[opebo]

I had some hope over the weekend when it looked like Romney's bounce was receding, but since then I've been in near constant despair.

Learn to enjoy it, as I do - proof we're right about America.

[J. J.]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

I'd say Romney is leading nationally, sure, but it's not like we're calling PPP or someone junk... it's ARG.

Pretty much this.  ARG does not have a good record.

And Lief, take a pill.

[Umengus]

Democrats need to stop playing this "junk poll" game with everything. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner now. Obama can still win, but to act like Romney isn't in the lead is foolish.

Which is it now? You change your view on this every few hours, it seems.

I had some hope over the weekend when it looked like Romney's bounce was receding, but since then I've been in near constant despair.

Poor lief.

Now you know what it was to be republican in september...

[Mr. Morden]

ARG = Alternate Reality Guessing

And this remains a true classic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=69546.msg1426700#msg1426700