Israeli General Election 2013

[Hnv1]

I actually think that together they'll gather less mandates then together. Shas is going to bite very hard on the safric base of the Likud, bibi shouldn't under estimate the fact that 80% of Likud voters are safric.

The centre-left block is unable to unify too many egos with too little in common

[CountryRoads]

Big news today with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu agreeing to run on a joint list.

Also Kadima is continuing to collapse with mk's leaving the party left and right.

great news

[danny]

This also makes my choice easy in this election, as I was undecided between Likud and YB.

[ag]

Also, do not underestimate within-comunal tensions. There are Russians out there, who've been planning all along voting for Likud in large part because they can't stand Lieberman personally (he does have quite a few enemies within the community). For them it will make their choice tough. At least a few will vote something else - whatever there is, just not Lieberman. And, to the best of my knowledge, there is no other secular right-wing party to vote for - so they will be pushed towards the center, whatever the center is now. Not because they like the center - they don't - but because they hate Lieberman. It won't be a lot, but it will easily make a difference of a couple of seats.

[danny]

Lapid is certainly making a play for Russian voters, he is going to make a speech in Ariel, a settlement with a large Russian population, saying that Ariel (and other settlement blocs) will remain part of Israel, and insisting that he isn't left or centre-left. This makes a lot of sense as Shinui had a lot of Russian voters.

[ag]

BTW, I don't know enough of the feelings in the Russian communities within Israel, but it would, definitely, be worth checking how they split by origin back home. Lieberman is a provincial. I am certain he must severely annoy many of those who came from Moscow/Leningrad - even if their families had only spent there a generation or two. If I were Lapid, I'd strongly concentrate on the "capital city" crowd. Get a few "intellectual" Russian faces originally from the big cities. Talk science/technology. Comiserate w/ their difficulty of integrating into the local academic community (that guy was a professor in Moscow - he is now a chef in Ashdod). Won't give him most Russians - but would give him some.

[ag]

Actually, just taking a quick look at some Russian-Israeli blogging sites confirms my initial hunch. In many quarters the reaction is reduced to a flood of obscenities. Some people say that they are now, for the first time in their lives, considering Labor. And, predictably, these seem to be "capital-city" types.

More or less in these terms: "and the unf.cked f.cker-up is dearer to me than a scoundrel"

[Vosem]

Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu separately would've gotten more seats, but together I think even a mythical grand centrist monster (Olmert+Lapid+Mofaz+Livni) would be unable to defeat them. In any case, I like this -- it shows Netanyahu may be shifting towards a more secular approach to politics, which is good news. Are they really calling the alliance Likud Beiteinu (Likud Is Our Home), like Wikipedia says? That...sounds awkward, somehow. And Lapid, remaining secular but shifting to the right and visiting Ariel to get Russian votes? Even better!

PPP's US state polls today have really frightened me, but all the news out of Israel seems largely for the better.

Also Kadima is continuing to collapse with mk's leaving the party left and right.

Really? Tell me about this. All I've learned from the English Wikipedia is Dichter's left the party, resigned from the Knesset, joined Netanyahu's Cabinet, and will probably be running with Likud Likud Beiteinu at the next election, though he remains an independent for now. Who else has left? And to go where? And how successful will they be there? And for what reason? EngWiki still says Kadima has 28 Knesset members.

[ag]

Of the Kadima ex-Soviets, Shamalova-Berkovich joined Likud and Abesadze goes to Avoda.

[Vosem]

Of the Kadima ex-Soviets, Shamalova-Berkovich joined Likud and Abesadze goes to Avoda.

Aryeh Bibi has joined Likud as well, and so has Tzachi Hanegbi (and Dichter has apparently made it official) too...only Abesadze has gone to Labor so far, no one to Yesh Atid...

[danny]

Of the Kadima ex-Soviets, Shamalova-Berkovich joined Likud and Abesadze goes to Avoda.

Aryeh Bibi has joined Likud as well, and so has Tzachi Hanegbi (and Dichter has apparently made it official) too...only Abesadze has gone to Labor so far, no one to Yesh Atid...

Lapid said that he wouldn't have any current mk's in his party.

BTW, regarding Shamalov-Berkovic, while I don't particularly like her, I do enjoy the irony of having her getting into the Knesset on a spot reserved for women (which are supported by feminist groups), then proceeding to be an outspoken anti-feminist. She made a speech in front of a men's rights group and said that men are discriminated against.

[ag]

Are the non-Russians aware of internal splits withing the ex-Soviet comminty, or is it viewed, generally, as homogenous?

[danny]

Are the non-Russians aware of internal splits withing the ex-Soviet comminty, or is it viewed, generally, as homogenous?

They know that they have different opinions and vote for different parties. But about there being a difference based on what part of the USSR they come from, no.

[danny]

Nachman Shai has also left kadima for Labour, I wonder how many of these Kadima refugees actually manage to be elected again.

[danny]

the recent news has brought on an expected flood of polls.

Starting with channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 42
Labour: 23
Shas: 13
Yesh Atid: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home-NU: 5
Independence: 3
Kadima: 3
"Arab Parties": 10

[danny]

Ma'ariv::

Likud Beitenu: 43
Labour: 20
Yesh Atid: 15
Shas:10
JH-NU: 8
UTJ: 6
Kadima: 4
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 3
UAL+Balad: 7

[danny]

Channel 10:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 23
Shas:14
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 9
UTJ: 6
Kadima: 5
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 4
UAL+Balad: 7

[Vosem]

So when will various party lists be determined? And publicized?

[danny]

So when will various party lists be determined? And publicized?

6/12/12 is the deadline, but parties may publicize the lists earlier, especially if they they have primaries.

[Peter the Lefty]

Go Meretz!

[danny]

After a week filled with silly polls with non-existent parties, here is a new one:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the threshold.

[Benj]

After a week filled with silly polls with non-existent parties, here is a new one:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the threshold.

Was this after the US election? There's been some noise in the US media about Netanyahu being seen as having made a big mistake in repeatedly insulting Obama and that it is hurting him now that Obama has been relected, but it's not clear to me whether this is actually important in Israel or just something the US media has picked up on.

[danny]

Yesterday was the leadership election for the Jewish Home, in which Naftali Bennet (23,645 votes) beat Zevulun Orlev (11,501 votes) handily

All the remaining primaries are for the list and not the leader.

remaining election dates:

November 11: Meretz primaries
November 13: Jewish Home primaries
November 25: Likud primaries
November 29: Labour primaries
December 5: Yisrael Beitenu publishes list thus completing the Likud Beitenu list.
December 6: Last day to submit the candidate lists
January 22: general election

[danny]

After a week filled with silly polls with non-existent parties, here is a new one:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the threshold.

Was this after the US election? There's been some noise in the US media about Netanyahu being seen as having made a big mistake in repeatedly insulting Obama and that it is hurting him now that Obama has been relected, but it's not clear to me whether this is actually important in Israel or just something the US media has picked up on.

It was after, but I don't think it had much effect, most Israelis supported Romney so I don't think they will much problem with Bibi doing the same. more important than that seems to be the election in the Jewish Home.

[danny]

With all the leadership primaries done, they can be tallied up.

Number of total voters in the primaries:

Likud: 63,150
Labour: 43,911 first round, 41,079 second round
Kadima: 38503
Jewish Home: 35,225

By candidate:

Netanyahu (Likud): 48490
Mofaz (Kadima): 23,987
Bennet (Jewish Home): 23,645
Yechimovich (labour): 22,257 (first round: 14,203)
Peretz (Labour): 18,822 (first round: 13,616)
Feiglin (Likud): 14,660
Livni (Kadima): 14,516
Orlev (Jewish Home): 11,501
Hertzog (Labour): 10,848 (first round only)
Mitzna (Labour): 5,244 (first round only)
Cohen (Jewish Home): 79