Israeli General Election 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Likud-Yesh-JH-Shas seems like the most obvious.

That's been complicated by Yesh coming in ahead of Shas though.

Had it been the other way around, Lapid could have just shrugged his shoulders and let Shas had their way based on them having more seats.

Now people will actually expect him to get his platform implemented.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni's not joining this government. She wouldn't do it for anything less than the Foreign Ministry and Netanyahu can't really justify giving that to her based on just 7 seats (actually more like 5 as I doubt Peretz and Mitzna would go along).

[jaichind]

Kadima seems to be doing better than exit polls suggest.  They might actually cross 2%

[danny]

Kadima seems to be doing better than exit polls suggest.  They might actually cross 2%

They actually got 1.99% in the channel 2 exit poll.

[Velasco]

It's a shame that division between the moderate heroes -I mean Yesh Atid and Labour- given the poor showing of the national-religious coalition. At least Meretz made some unexpected gains, although we have those sweeties of Jewish Home and Shas alongside the Likud-Beitenu bloc. I think that if I were Israeli I could understand those who spent the day on Tel-Aviv beaches instead of going to the polling stations, given the political landscape. I've just watched a video in The Guardian website showing some examples of that. On the other side, the interviewed Palestinians in the same video don't seem to expect great things from this election (normal).

[jaichind]

I think vote is mostly counted.  By my calculations the seat distribution should be

likud - Israel Beitenu   31
Yesh Atid                  18
Haavoda (Labor)   15
Shas                  11
Jewish Home   11
UTJ                         7
HaTnua                   7
Meretz                   6
Untied Arabs    4
Hadash                   4
Balad                   3
Kadima                   3

[Famous Mortimer]

Kadima's going to be relevant again.

Oh, Israel!

[jaichind]

Some more votes counted.  Likud lost another seat.  Right-Religous now down to 59.  Arab parties up to 12 seats.  One thing the media talked about before the election was the apathy of Arab voters and that the Arab parties will lose seats.  Did not seem to have happen either, along with a bunch of other predictions.

Likud - Israel Beitenu   30
Yesh Atid                                 18
Labor                                 15
Shas                                 11
Jewish Home                  11
UTJ                                           7
HaTnua                                   7
Meretz                                   6
Untied Arabs                    5
Hadash                                   4
Balad                                    3
Kadima                                   3

[Dereich]

So it seems that right now the right and left blocks are tied at 60-60 with 99% of the vote counted. Close elections like this are so much fun

[Famous Mortimer]

With 99% of the vote counted, Haaretz is giving "final" numbers:

Likud 31 (poor)
Yesh Atid 19 (mind blowing, the story of the election)
Labor 15 (piss poor)
Shas 11 (same as last time but kind of sucky when you consider the fuss they made about the return of Aryeh Deri)
Jewish Home 11 (would have been considered an insanely good showing a year ago but not so much after all the media coverage and the polls showing them in at least 3rd)
United Torah Judaism 7 (I'll believe this when I see it. If it is true I'll chalk it up to increased turnout due to fear of the draft)
Tzipi Livni Party 6 (terrible showing but at least she got more votes than Meretz, that would have been truly embarrassing if she hadn't)
Meretz 6 (doubling their seats from last time. Also getting their Arab candidate elected)
United Arab List 5 (Amazing showing as demonstrated by Taleb el-Sana squeaking to re-election despite being demoted on the list)
Hadash 4 (Exact same as last time, same number of seats, same MKs filing them. Success for Hadash would have been winning at least 5 and getting their Christian lady candidate, Nabila Espanioly, elected)
Balad 3 (same number of seats as last time. Nice to see them come in last among the Arab parties I guess)
Kadima 2 (winning any seats was a victory. Shaul Mofaz becomes a potential king maker in a tightly contested Knesset. Defense Minister becomes a remote possibility.)

[Tender Branson]

Meh, turnout only increased to 67% in the final hours. Basically nobody voted in the final 4 hours.

Whereas in previous elections 5-7% voted after 6pm, it was only 3% yesterday.

[Famous Mortimer]

I wonder who will take over the Labor Party now. Peretz would have been the obvious choice but he ed himself out of that. Isaac Herzog is sure to run as a boring Third Wayer again. Avishay Braverman will probably run as the economically left-wing candidate. Maybe Ophir Pines-Paz as the peace candidate?

[danny]

Map.

[Zanas]

Are the Arab lists really willing to enter coalitions with centre-left parties ? I don't really know too well how ISraeli politics work, and I don't know if Arab lists are there to only represent Israeli Arabs but without any real intervention or if they really participate in the Knesset debates and coalition making.

I guess that Netanyahu making a coalition with all three religious parties Shas, Jewish Home and UTJ, possibly adding Kadima or, what the hell, Labour or Livni, would piss off the US, am I right ?

It seems the only plausible coalition would be a center one like : Likud-IB, Yesh Atid, Livni, Labor. Is that possible ?

Are Labour willing to be in a coalition with Likud ? With Yesh Atid that "stole their day" ?

Anyway, Netanyahu already stated that the priority of any new majority should be to prevent Iran from getting the nuclear bomb...

This is going to be fun to watch.

[Velasco]

So it seems that right now the right and left blocks are tied at 60-60 with 99% of the vote counted. Close elections like this are so much fun

Which parties do you include in 'right' and 'left' blocs?

As it stands now Likud-Beitenu has 31 seats and Jewish Home 11, totalling 42 seats for the conservative Zionist bloc. The religious conservatives Shas (11) and United Torah and Judaism (7) have 18 seats. So, yes, the right has 60 seats.

On the other side Kadima (2) or Hatnuah (6), which are centrist parties being generous, can hardly being considered as part of any 'left'. In any case, they could form a centre-left bloc (or so) with Labour (15) and Yesh Atid (19) which adds 42 seats. Then we have the socialdemocrat/green Meretz (6) and the communist/socialist Hadash (4), which can be considered as left-wing parties, totalling 10 seats. Finally the United Arab List (5) and Balad (3) have 8 seats. The first party is described simply as a religious and nationalist Arab party, while Balad seems to be a secular Arab nationalist one. I can hardly see this half of the Knesset as an homogeneous 'leftist' bloc, not to mention that Arab parties have never been part of any Israeli government.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni can't be considered left? The number 2 and 3 on her list are former Labor Party leaders.

Livni goes in the left-wing bloc without a moments thought.

She's certainly more to the left than Yesh Atid.

[Eraserhead]

Ah, so nice to see Netanyahu roughed up a bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

I guess that Netanyahu making a coalition with all three religious parties Shas, Jewish Home and UTJ, possibly adding Kadima or, what the hell, Labour or Livni, would piss off the US, am I right ?

He would add Yesh Atid before he added Labor and Labor before he added Livni. Yesh Atid is the most right-wing of those 3 groups.

Yes, Yesh Atid is secularist (although not nearly as much as people think) and the religious parties are religious but you have to remember Yisrael Beytenu was hardcore secularist and they sat in government with Shas.

It seems the only plausible coalition would be a center one like : Likud-IB, Yesh Atid, Livni, Labor. Is that possible ?

No. Not possible at all. Netanyahu would be removed as party leader if he tried to do that.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also somewhat interesting, based on Haaretz numbers:

Number of Arabs in the new Knesset: 5 UAL members + 3 Balad members + 3 out of 4 Hadash members + one Druze from Likud Beytenu + one Muslim from Meretz = 13 Arab Members (including 1 Druze and 1 Christian)

That's down from 17 in the outgoing Knesset (which included 1 Christian and 6 Druze)

So the number of Arabs (using a broad definition that includes the Druze) went down 7

but the number of Muslims went up 1 (Assuming that Barakeh and Agbaria of Hadash are nominal Muslims despite their membership in a Communist Party).

[Peter the Lefty]

I wonder who will take over the Labor Party now. Peretz would have been the obvious choice but he ed himself out of that. Isaac Herzog is sure to run as a boring Third Wayer again. Avishay Braverman will probably run as the economically left-wing candidate. Maybe Ophir Pines-Paz as the peace candidate?

I do too.  Though remember, Barak still managed to keep his job after the debacle known as 2009, and they didn't get rid of him until it was incredibly clear he'd sold their body, soul, and mind to the devil.  Seems to be a very...forgiving party.

[Iannis]

Livni can't be considered left? The number 2 and 3 on her list are former Labor Party leaders.

Livni goes in the left-wing bloc without a moments thought.

She's certainly more to the left than Yesh Atid.

I thnk that the new coalition will be Likud +  Yesh Atid +  Shas + maybe Kadima or Livni?

[Velasco]

Livni can't be considered left? The number 2 and 3 on her list are former Labor Party leaders.

Livni goes in the left-wing bloc without a moments thought.

She's certainly more to the left than Yesh Atid.

Well, being a former Israeli Laborite doesn't guarantee being a leftist at this point. At least I don't regard Shimon Peres (former Labour and later Kadima member) as a leftist, given his political action and his allignment with Ariel Sharon. On the other hand the Tzipi Livni Party is described as centrist and liberal. Probably you are right and she's on the left of Lapid -honestly, I don't know too much about him or his party- but this doesn't convert her in a leftist.

[minionofmidas]

First Black (ie Jewish Ethiopian) woman in the Knesset, elected for Yesh Atid.

[minionofmidas]

So Israel uses D'Hondt with a marginal amendation that didn't affect the results at all, at least this time.
If they'd be using Hare-Niemeyer or Ste-Lague (keeping the 2% threshold) Likud and Lapid would be done one seat each and Livni and Kadima up one, bringing the unequivocally right wing parties down to 59. (Not that it would really matter, there's still no way to form a government without Likud.)

[danny]

Map.

A different map, this one is less user friendly but has better detail if you zoom in.