Israeli General Election 2013

[ag]

A wonderful government it will be LB-JH/NU-Shas-UTJ (or AS? would that work?). I don't envy the finance minister

[Kitteh]

Am Shalem: 4

What is this party?

[danny]

Am Shalem: 4

What is this party?

It's the party of Haim Amsalem, who was elected on shas's list in the last election. He clearly did not fit in with the rest of the party and is far more moderate on religious issues. He left Shas and accused them of not being Zionist, selling out to the Ashkenazi Haredim, and of being a bunch of crooks.

[danny]

another poll, by channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 22
Shas: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
JH-NU: 7
UTJ: 6
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 3
"Arab parties": 10

[MrMittens]

Hoping for another Netanyahu Government.

[The Mikado]

This also makes my choice easy in this election, as I was undecided between Likud and YB.

...wow.  Um...I thought YB was mostly for Russian immigrants to Israel?

Anyway, Likud/YB is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

[danny]

This also makes my choice easy in this election, as I was undecided between Likud and YB.

...wow.  Um...I thought YB was mostly for Russian immigrants to Israel?

Anyway, Likud/YB is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Mostly, yes, but not exclusively.

[Vosem]

Yesterday was the leadership election for the Jewish Home, in which Naftali Bennet (23,645 votes) beat Zevulun Orlev (11,501 votes) handily

All the remaining primaries are for the list and not the leader.

remaining election dates:

November 11: Meretz primaries
November 13: Jewish Home primaries
November 25: Likud primaries
November 29: Labour primaries
December 5: Yisrael Beitenu publishes list thus completing the Likud Beitenu list.
December 6: Last day to submit the candidate lists
January 22: general election

So, the Meretz primaries are today...what happened? And what's the prognosis for all these other pre-election events?

[Hnv1]

Yesterday was the leadership election for the Jewish Home, in which Naftali Bennet (23,645 votes) beat Zevulun Orlev (11,501 votes) handily

All the remaining primaries are for the list and not the leader.

remaining election dates:

November 11: Meretz primaries
November 13: Jewish Home primaries
November 25: Likud primaries
November 29: Labour primaries
December 5: Yisrael Beitenu publishes list thus completing the Likud Beitenu list.
December 6: Last day to submit the candidate lists
January 22: general election

So, the Meretz primaries are today...what happened? And what's the prognosis for all these other pre-election events?

Meretz primaries are a bit different as the voting is conducted by the meretz convention rather than the general members population.
The primaries were not for the chairman position but only for compiling the list we'll be running with to the Knesset. unlike previous primaries no spot was reserved for arabs (and one was elected 4th nonetheless), and this time equal gender representation was assured, meaning for every man on the list there will be a woman.
The list according to yesterday
1. Mk Zehava Galon -chairman
2. MK Ilan Gilon - first in primaries a more traditional socialist
3. MK Nitzan Horovitz
4. Michal Rozin - chairwoman of the aid center for the sexually assaulted
5. Issawi Farig - the Arab rep.
6. Tamar Zandberg - member of Tel Aviv city council
7. Former MK Avshalom Vilan - the kibbutzs' rep.
8. Former MK Mossi Raz

My personal vote was Gilon-Horovitz-Farig-Vilan-Zandberg

[danny]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

[Vosem]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

Are they likely to get seats in the Knesset? Certainly hope not.

[Hnv1]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

Are they likely to get seats in the Knesset? Certainly hope not.

Passing the bar with 2 will be difficult for them espcially with the coming unification of far-right National Union and the nationalist-religious Jewish Home that will probably sweep all the ballots in their anticipated powerhouses in the west bank

They'll get the the super fringe settlers like the Hebron ones and all sort of Khanists (and let us not forget dumb 18 year olds within Israeli borders), yet all those combined will not get them in.

My greatest fear as a left voter is how many votes the buffoon lapid is going to 'rob' from Labour and MeretZ

[danny]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

Are they likely to get seats in the Knesset? Certainly hope not.

Maybe, maybe not, but remember that the last time kahanists ran on their own, they got just 25K votes. On the other hand, this time they also have Eldad, and two of them are already Knesset members.

[danny]

New poll from channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 15
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Independence: 2

Which of the following would you like to see as minister of defence:

Bogie Ya'alon- 33%
Ehud Barak- 22%
Shaul Mofaz- 8%
Amir Peretz- 2
None of them- 27%
Don't know- 8% 

[Hnv1]

New poll from

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 15
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Independence: 2

Which of the following would you like to see as minister of defence:

Bogie Ya'alon- 33%
Ehud Barak- 22%
Shaul Mofaz- 8%
Amir Peretz- 2
None of them- 27%
Don't know- 8% 

we're steadily climbing, from 3 to 4 and now 5 and I can see us scoring 6-7. on the other hand Labour are alienating voters lately with Shelly's actions.

now we see Israel election politics at best, Barak & Bibi brewed us a war

[danny]

now we see Israel election politics at best, Barak & Bibi brewed us a war

The south was being bombarded for days now, but when Israel finally does something about it, it becomes the fault of "Barak & Bibi". Israel should have done this a while ago, a mass murdering terrorist like Jabari should be assassinated the first moment possible.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud Beitenu: 41
Labour: 21
Shas: 12
Yesh Atid: 9
JH-NU: 8
UTJ: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Balad: 4
Meretz: 4
Kadima: 3
Hadash: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Independence: 2

[MrMittens]

New poll:

Likud Beitenu: 41
Labour: 21
Shas: 12
Yesh Atid: 9
JH-NU: 8
UTJ: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Balad: 4
Meretz: 4
Kadima: 3
Hadash: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Independence: 2

I thought Kadima were supposed to be the major opposition party (or have they had a total meltdown).

[danny]

Also, the National Union has chosen its list, which will be merged with the Jewish Home:

1) Uri Ariel (Current MK, age 59, father of 6).

2) Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan (age 58, father of 9).

3) Zevulun Calpa (age 50, father of 6).

4) Orit Struk (age 52, mother of 11).

5) hillel Horovitz (age 48, father of 9)

6) Nochi Eyal (age 50 father of 7)

[danny]

I thought Kadima were supposed to be the major opposition party (or have they had a total meltdown).

They were, in the last election they won the most votes, but they were a disaster, and have now become irrelevant. for more see this post.

[Kitteh]

What do you think the impact of Gaza will be on this? My guess would be that it's good for Bibi but I'm no expert.

[danny]

What do you think the impact of Gaza will be on this? My guess would be that it's good for Bibi but I'm no expert.

there were two cases in the past where there was an operation shortly before an election, cast lead in 2009, and grapes of wrath in 1996, and in both cases the PM was replaced. The polls so far haven't shown any movement so far, and unless something dramatic happens, I expect the impact to be minimal.

[danny]

another new poll:

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 22
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
"Arab parties": 10


Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the minimum threshold.

[RogueBeaver]

another new poll:

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 22
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
"Arab parties": 10


Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the minimum threshold.

From government to literally nonexistent in 4 years. LOL.

[Kitteh]

another new poll:

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 22
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
"Arab parties": 10


Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the minimum threshold.

From government to literally nonexistent in 4 years. LOL.

Even the PCs in Canada did better. XD