Israeli General Election 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bibi has called a snap election

[DL]

Interesting how the Israeli definition of a "snap election" means and election five months from now! In Canada a snap election means I call the election today and we vote in five weeks not five months!

[danny]

Interesting how the Israeli definition of a "snap election" means and election five months from now! In Canada a snap election means I call the election today and we vote in five weeks not five months!

It's won't be 5 months, it will be about 3 months. And governments never last their full term, so this is just the normal way to have elections.

[Insula Dei]

So, what does election timing tell us about Israeli plans vis-a-vis Iran? Little to nothing? Or does this mean Bibi wants to have a clear mandate and his hands freed by February/March?

[danny]

So, what does election timing tell us about Israeli plans vis-a-vis Iran? Little to nothing? Or does this mean Bibi wants to have a clear mandate and his hands freed by February/March?

This, Bibi doesn't an election to attack Iran.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Who is the frontrunner?

[danny]

Who is the frontrunner?

Bibi, he has been ahead in every poll for over a year, See this thread for the details.

[danny]

The date has officially been set for January 22.

before that we will have primaries for the party lists in the Likud (25/11/12), Labour and the Jewish Home (13/11/12) (and maybe others).

The Jewish Home is also having leadership primaries on the 6/11/12 with a possible second round on the 13/11/12.

[ag]

The posts about polling should be moved here, now that the elections are on (or the threads merged).

[danny]

The posts about polling should be moved here, now that the elections are on (or the threads merged).

Yeah, I will do that from now on.

[danny]

I'll start posting polls here then, starting with Mako:

Likud: 28
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Shas: 8
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

[danny]

and now Globes:

Likud: 25
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
Shas (headed by Deri): 13
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Kadima: 3
Independence: 2
RAAM-TAAL + Balad: 7 (their choice to combine the results).

[Zanas]

Kadima at 2-3 ? Wasn't that like the main party a few years ago ? Can you explain what happened ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Read the older polls thread linked to in danny's sig: it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

[danny]

Aryeh Deri is returning to Shas, and the party now won't have any leader, to keep everyone happy.

Also the Jewish Home and the National Union have reached an agreement to run together in the coming elections.

[Vosem]

Aryeh Deri is returning to Shas, and the party now won't have any leader, to keep everyone happy.

Who'll be first on the list?

Also the Jewish Home and the National Union have reached an agreement to run together in the coming elections.

Didn't an agreement to do this in '09 fall apart? (Although, it worked out in '06...)

[danny]

Aryeh Deri is returning to Shas, and the party now won't have any leader, to keep everyone happy.

Who'll be first on the list?

It isn't clear yet, but it isn't important as long as there is an agreement on the delegation of powers.

Also the Jewish Home and the National Union have reached an agreement to run together in the coming elections.

Didn't an agreement to do this in '09 fall apart? (Although, it worked out in '06...)

The 2009 agreement was to merge the National Union and Mafdal into one party called The Jewish Home. The problem was that the Mafdal people took over the party so that they will have all the power in the united party. When the National Union people realized what was happening, they left to re-form their own party. The current agreement doesn't merge the parties but merely agrees to combine the lists.

[Hnv1]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

[Kitteh]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

Welcome to Atlas Forum, btw! I'd love to see more Israeli posters here (not that danny isn't awesome, but it's an interesting and important country). Happy that you're here

[danny]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

Welcome to the forum, it's nice to have another Israeli poster, even though we probably won't agree on much (I'm a Likud supporter).

[Hnv1]

Why thank you, I was in bed with high fever when I came across this site and gorged on it for hours. There is so much to learn about a culture or an area from it's voting pattern, indeed fascinating.

October 18th poll Haaretz/dialogue group:
If elections were held today whom would you cast your vote for (poll figure, shift from standing figure):
Likud: 29, +2; Labour: 20, +12[8]; IB (Liberman): 13, -2; Yair Lapid: 11, +11; Shas: 11, 0; Kadima: 9, -19; Jewish home: 6, -1; Haredim: 6, +1; Meretz: 5, +2; Hadash-CPI: 4, 0; both balad and ma'am remained without a shift
results of course in manadates not percentage of votes.  

A focus poll was conducted regarding whom will you vote if Livni, former head of kadima joins Labour as num. 2 (number of mandates):
Likud - 27; Labour - 24; IB - 13; Shas - 11; Lapid - 10; Kadima - 7; Meretz - 5.

A new centre party headed by Lapid-Livni-Olmert:
New party - 25; Likud - 24; Labour - 17; Shas - 14; IB - 13; Meretz - 4.

This poll demonstrates the ability of a unified centre party to win the mandates figure (like 2009) but on the overall the Right wing-religious block still remains the largest. The return of Deri'i will probably not change that and the days of a joint left-religious governments like of old days are long gone. For now the only option (very unlikely) for a centre-left victory is a reunification of centre parties, with united moderate arab factions party (who will raise voting ratios), and a creation of a coalition government with the Arabic parties. This is very unlikely due to the structured inequality in our political system and internal Aran issues.

[Kitteh]

Those polls seem to show that Livni would generally be a boost for any party (Labour or a new centre party). Last I heard she was very unpopular. Has something changed?

[danny]

I don't think Shas and UTJ will have much trouble joining a coalition with headed by the left, just like they sat with Olmert not long ago, even if it isn't their first choice.

[Hnv1]

As part of this new troika they have in Shas, Yishay is charged with government activity and there is no way he will recommend a left party with these small margins, and why should he? Bibi will be way more appeasing for their liking. If Deri'i was sole leader it would have been different. UTJ will go where the money is.

Livni was not unpopular, maybe mildly appreciated. But the left will take her as a leader over Bibi anyday. In Israeli political culture Bibi is hailed as either a genius by some or utterly despised by others. But among is political block he rules supreme which in turn turn him into the frontrunner in light of the factionous centre-left

Poor Ehud Barak loathed by both right and left wingers.

[danny]

Big news today with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu agreeing to run on a joint list.

Also Kadima is continuing to collapse with mk's leaving the party left and right.