Israeli General Election 2013

[hawkeye59]

I got
1. Labor
2. Ha'tunah
3. Meretz

[danny]

Walla [urlhttp://news.walla.co.il/elections/?w=/2780/2602368]poll[/url]:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 15
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 2
Kadima: 2

Profile of JH-NU voters:

Gender:

male 53%
female 47%

age:

18-29: 27.2%
30-49: 40.4%
50+: 32.4%

religion:

national religious: 52.9%
traditionalist: 24.2%
secular: 18.6%
haredi: 1.6%
no response: 2.8%


Also 71% of Yesh Atid and 69% of The Movement voters are secular.

[Kitteh]

Can danny or hnv (or anyone else who knows) explain the Israeli religious categories to me? Some like secular and haredi are obvious, but what do "national religious" and "traditionalist" mean?

[Hnv1]

Can danny or hnv (or anyone else who knows) explain the Israeli religious categories to me? Some like secular and haredi are obvious, but what do "national religious" and "traditionalist" mean?

Well I'll try:
 
National-Religious/Religious Zionism - nicknamed "knitted yarmulkes". In the early days of Zionism when the haredi majority population rejected it and the Socialist and secular Zionists were the dominate force in Zionism, came a man called Rabbi Cook (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Isaac_Kook) who integrated Zionism with religion.  He was the father of this movement and his preaching is still a major factor in its ideological tendencies.   In general (I wouldn't call myself an expert of NRs as I view them as a danger and catastrophe for our society), they believe in the imminent redemption of the Jewish people through the foundation of the State of Israel and the "revival" of the "land-work" relations of the Jewish people with their land.

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After 1967 the NRs were the forefront of Jewish settlement in the occupied territories and they experienced what one may describe as a "great messianic awakening". If by then NR party Mafdal was simply a quite member of each coalition with no particular political lean; after 1967 they drifted strongly to the right. Most settlers are NRs and an overwhelming majority of hardcore-settlers are NRs (though from more radical branches such as Rabbi Dov Lior's crew). They are generally (or were) less strict about following religious commandment than their haredi counterparts, though in recent years they had drifted in the religious-zealous direction as well.

Traditionalist – is a broad umbrella term for Israelis with no official religious definition. They keep religious commands loosely, and their faith is usually oriented to their respect for Jewish tradition. You can find them attending synagogues or simply keeping kosher, it's more of a self-definition thing. I would estimate the vast majority of traditionalists are of Sephardi ancestry and vote Likud.
  

[danny]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

[Kitteh]

Thanks for the explanation. Very interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Message to Vosem: being fifteen is no excuse for being a twat.

[Vosem]

Message to Vosem: being fifteen is no excuse for being a twat.

Isn't the point of archiving very old threads so that in the future we can look at mistaken predictions and try to be closer to the mark this time? Or are they just there to take up space?

Sorry, I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. The point of archiving old threads (a thread from 2009 is not 'very old') is to archive old threads. Bumping old threads to giggle at inaccurate predictions is dickish at the best of times, and is actively obnoxious when the dickish person in question had yet to hit puberty when the thread was active.

[Vosem]

No. The point of archiving old threads (a thread from 2009 is not 'very old') is to archive old threads. Bumping old threads to giggle at inaccurate predictions is dickish at the best of times, and is actively obnoxious when the dickish person in question had yet to hit puberty when the thread was active.

The point was to show that there are certain things in Israeli politics (such as which parties will/won't coalesce with each other) that cannot be assumed. But if you want to interpret it as dickish giggling, go ahead -- you're the moderator, not me.

EDIT: Grammar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it is just about possible that the risible shenanigans of the past four years had made that fact reasonably obvious. After all, everything is obvious in hindsight. But when people make predictions, they don't do so with the benefit of hindsight; instead, they rely on assumptions, which are generally based on past patterns and known facts. This has obvious limitations. You'll understand the implications of all of this a little better when you are a little older, hopefully.

In the meanwhile, try not to be quite such a knowingly precocious child.

[Vosem]

I think it is just about possible that the risible shenanigans of the past four years had made that fact reasonably obvious. After all, everything is obvious in hindsight. But when people make predictions, they don't do so with the benefit of hindsight; instead, they rely on assumptions, which are generally based on past patterns and known facts. This has obvious limitations.

The point of bumping the thread was to bring attention to this...

You'll understand the implications of all of this a little better when you are a little older, hopefully. In the meanwhile, try not to be quite such a knowingly precocious child.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

So are the odds that the coalition essentially doesn't change? LB/JH-NU/Shas/UTJ for a total of 65?

[danny]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

So are the odds that the coalition essentially doesn't change? LB/JH-NU/Shas/UTJ for a total of 65?

It's possible, but such a coalition would leave Bibi as one of the most left wing members of his own coalition, a situation Bibi usually tries to avoid. He will probably like to have it as leverage, so that he can go to the parties to his left and tell them that if they won't join him than he will just set up a right-religious coalition without them.

[Kitteh]

What would the cross-center coalition look like? Likud-Hatnuah-Yesh Atid-Kadima isn't a majority, they'd need either Labour or Shas/UTJ for a majority. Yesh Atid/Hatnuah and the Haredi parties seems like an odd match, and Labour seems unlikely to join a Bibi coalition. Idk.

[Famous Mortimer]

Netanyahu will probably aim to have the current coalition plus Labor. Conventional wisdom says he would give Yachimovich the post of Finance Minister. I doubt that though, he's too much of a free market dogmatist to do that. He'll probably try to give her Defense or Foreign Affairs instead (in a way, Liberman being indited has helped Netanyahu by freeing up a big ministry he can use to court the left) In recent days there's also been talk of him giving Livni the Foreign Ministry. I don't think this is too likely though but presumably the idea is he would focus on domestic and economic issues while giving Livni free reign to negotiate with the Palestinians.

[Hnv1]

Shelly today announced she will either be PM or 'Natenyahu's most loyal opposition "

Recent poll reshet B:
Likud - 35
Labour - 18
JH+NU - 18
Shas - 8
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Livni - 6
Otzma Isr. - 6
Hadash - 4
Ra'sm - 4
Balad - 3

[danny]

Shelly today announced she will either be PM or 'Natenyahu's most loyal opposition "

Recent poll reshet B:
Likud - 35
Labour - 18
JH+NU - 18
Shas - 8
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Livni - 6
Otzma Isr. - 6
Hadash - 4
Ra'sm - 4
Balad - 3

Yeah that's a geocartographia poll, their results tend to be very different than everyone else, and I usually try to avoid them.

[danny]

Shelly made an announcement that she won't sit in Bibi's coalition, which caused Lapid and Livni to attack her. If Bibi is willing to keep the Haredim out, than I think a Likud-JH-Lapid-Livni coalition is very possible.

[danny]

New polls.

knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 2

Yisrael Hayom:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 11
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Am Shalem: 2

[Famous Mortimer]

Brainfart. Although Netanyahu would like to get Labor on board (after all, that was the exact coalition he formed after the previous election), his first obvious choice for expanding his majority would be Yesh Atid. Lapid would be absolutely willing to serve in a Likud-Jewish Home-Shas government. He's said as much before and he hasn't been nearly as militantly secular as people expected in general, with the appointment of various liberal and not so liberal rabbis to his list. Additionally, let's not forget the historical Shinui's free market bent and the fact that they sat in Sharon's government alongside the NRP and Agudat Yisrael.

[danny]

Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians often don't keep their promises.

[danny]

Jerusalem Post poll:

Likud Beitenu: 32
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 16
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2

[Zuza]

Do I understand correctly that support for JH-NU grows at the expense of Likud Beiteinu?

[Hnv1]

Do I understand correctly that support for JH-NU grows at the expense of Likud Beiteinu?

Yes, and also by first voters who don'y fully comprehend what Benet is proposing and it looks hype for them to vote for him (before him Lapid was on that wave)