Israeli General Election 2013

[minionofmidas]

Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians don't often keep their promises.

Fixed that for you.

[Hnv1]

Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians often don't keep their promises.

Lapid will not survive in opposition. He's not a legislature, nor does he has any agenda he can promote from the opposition's benches, it will only speed up his party's disintegration

[Hnv1]

Interesting things happening this weekend:
- After Shelly's declaration that Labour will either form the government or head the opposition, Livni says she'll meet with her and try forming a block against Likud.
- Lapid was anticipated to join but of course he took the cowards way out saying he want's to "moderate the next government"
- Former head of the Shabak (kinda like MI5) gives a huge interview in which he attacks Barak and Netanyahu as unworthy and motivated by narrow motives. He goes on insisting that they are not the individuals Israel can trust in this delicate times with the Iranian nuclear programme and the Palestinian peace talks.

[danny]

Interesting things happening this weekend:
- After Shelly's declaration that Labour will either form the government or head the opposition, Livni says she'll meet with her and try forming a block against Likud.
- Lapid was anticipated to join but of course he took the cowards way out saying he want's to "moderate the next government"

As long as the current coalition combines to over 60 mandates, all this could cause is to force Bibi to continue the current coalition. If Lapid could come in instead of the Haredim, he could change things, so you could call him a coward, but he's not wrong.

- Former head of the Shabak (kinda like MI5) gives a huge interview in which he attacks Barak and Netanyahu as unworthy and motivated by narrow motives. He goes on insisting that they are not the individuals Israel can trust in this delicate times with the Iranian nuclear programme and the Palestinian peace talks.

I expect to see him in the next elections on the list of Labour/some centrist party.

[Vosem]

According to Ha'aretz, Lapid's exact phrasing was that he "won't sit with Shas in an extreme-right-wing coalition", before coming right around and saying that it's important to moderate the Netanyahu government. Also he says he'll only sit in government if Livni approves. The logical conclusion is that he wants to join but would like to exclude Shas. Of course, prior to the '09 election, Lieberman also wanted to sit in the coalition, just without Shas, but Shas wormed their way in anyhow.

Anyway, what Lapid wants to see, I think, is Hatnuah+Yesh Atid+Likud Beiteinu+some right-wing parties other than Shas (Bayit Yehudi is the obvious one, but perhaps UTJ as well). In the Jerusalem Post poll, this would add up to 73 seats (68 if you exclude UTJ). Such a coalition would see Netanyahu as ideologically average, so I think this is roughly what he would like to see as well.

Of course, this is Israeli coalition-building, so really anything goes.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni isn't going to join Netanyahu. Nor is Lapid going to base his decision on Livni. There's no love lost between them. If there was. He would have joined her list as her number 2. Netanyahu doesn't want a coalition as narrow as Likud-Jewish Home-Shas-UTJ, nor does he want a coalition as narrow as Likud-Jewish Home-Yesh Atid. The final coalition will be Likud-Jewish Home-Shas-Yesh Atid. Lapid's statement that he wouldn't sit with Shas was full of weasel words. He'll end up sitting with such a far right government by claiming his own presence stops it from being far right.

[danny]

Mako poll:

Likud Beitenu: 32
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 16
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Otzma: 3
Am Shalem: 2
Balad:2

[RogueBeaver]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

[danny]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Bibi is running a bad campaign (as usual) while Bennet is running a great one, and is siphoning off all those Likud voters.

[ag]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Considering that at the last election Likud and YB together had 42 seats, it was 40 smthg where they started. Having 32 seats between the two is pretty damn bad.

[Hnv1]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Considering that at the last election Likud and YB together had 42 seats, it was 40 smthg where they started. Having 32 seats between the two is pretty damn bad.

Don't forget Lieberman already states that following the election the union is off (so Likud will stay with around 22 seats at best)

[Hnv1]

Channel 10 poll from yesterday:

Likud - 35
Labour - 17
JH - 14
Shas - 12
Lapid - 11
Livni - 7
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Ra'am - 4
Balad -4
Hadash - 3
Kadima - 2

[danny]

A poll about opinions rather than voting intentions shows a right wing majority (55%) compared to the centre (21%) and left (17%). Om the economy it's 33% social-democrat, 40% centrist, 22% capitalist. A majority support both a two state solution and keeping the settlements...
A huge majority oppose relinquishing the Golan (84%).

Link in English

[danny]

poll by Mishal Cham:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 9
The Movement: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Kadima: 3
Otzma: 2
Am Shalem: 2
"Arab parties": 10

[RogueBeaver]

So LB has stabilized, at least for now.

[danny]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

[Vosem]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

I find it extremely funny considering most of my acquaintances' first thought of what a stereotypical Russian would look like is me, and I look very much like the dude in that ad...

Of course, we already knew Shas are assholes.

[Kitteh]

If anyone wants, this person has a channel with ads from different parties subtitled in English:
http://www.youtube.com/user/IsraeliElections2013?feature=watch

Also, it's probably some Israeli thing I'm not aware of, but it looks like the girls at 1:23 in this Hatnuah ad are doing the Gangam Style dance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RGUE6yW9yjQ#t=82s
XD

[danny]

If anyone wants, this person has a channel with ads from different parties subtitled in English:
http://www.youtube.com/user/IsraeliElections2013?feature=watch

Also, it's probably some Israeli thing I'm not aware of, but it looks like the girls at 1:23 in this Hatnuah ad are doing the Gangam Style dance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RGUE6yW9yjQ#t=82s
XD

No, that's just Gangnam Style, it's big everywhere.

[minionofmidas]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

I find it extremely funny considering most of my acquaintances' first thought of what a stereotypical Russian would look like is me, and I look very much like the dude in that ad...

He doesn't look Russian... she kind of does, though.

[ag]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

Wow, that is racist.

If you are willing to move to a tribal state, you should be expecting that your tribal membership might be questioned. I would have been enraged if this were happening in any civilized country, but here it seems hilariously appropriate.

[danny]

Poll from channel 1:

Likud Beitenu- 33
Labour - 16
JH-NU - 15
Shas - 10
Yesh Atid - 10
The Movement - 9
Meretz - 6
UTJ - 5
Raam-Taal - 4
Hadash - 4
Balad -3
Otzma- 3
Kadima - 2

[danny]

Poll from Forbes:

Likud Beitenu- 34
Labour - 17
JH-NU - 14
Yesh Atid - 11
Shas - 9
The Movement - 9
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Raam-Taal - 4
Hadash - 3
Balad -3
Otzma- 3
Kadima - 2

[hawkeye59]

And Netanyahu is once again ruining Israel's reputation and making most Israelis look bad, showing that the current government has no interest in peace at Bab Al-Shams. I mean, I support Israel generally, but these people are non-violent protestors.

[hawkeye59]

Plus, they were ignoring the Israeli Supreme Court. Also, according to Haaretz, this was private Palestinian land. Danny, as an Israeli, what is your opinion on this?