Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

I support Israeli construction at  E1, so naturally I support Israeli actions. As for Haaretz, they're full of nonsense, I don't pay them much attention. I imagine HNV will have a very different perspective though.

[Hnv1]

I support Israeli construction at  E1, so naturally I support Israeli actions. As for Haaretz, they're full of nonsense, I don't pay them much attention. I imagine HNV will have a very different perspective though.

Very different indeed, I think the Netanyahu régime is doing all in its power to prevent the foundation of a Palestinian state without contemplating the future ramifications of their actions (socially, politically, morally, strategically, and so forth). Furthermore, evacuating a peaceful Palestinian settlement (on private property) whilst rewarding right-wing zealots who invade grounds and form illegal settlements is almost criminal

Interesting poll in Yediut today shows that around 18% are still uncertain who to vote for but they are leaning as follows:
55% - towards no one
13% - Likud
9%- Labour
6% - JH
5% - Livni
5% - Lapid
5%- Meretz
2% - Shas

Another interesting poll is the one on first-time voters in which Lapid's claim of being highly popular with the younger vote is false (Meretz actually doubles his poor figure):
18% - Likud
15% - Labour
14% - JH
13% - Meretz
12% - Shas
7% - Lapid
7% - Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak (god save us from the youth)
5% - green leaf
2% - Otzma LeIsrael
1% - UTJ
1% - green party
5% - undecided  

General poll turns out as follows:
Likud – 33
Labour – 18
JH – 14
Lapid – 11
Shas – 11
Livni – 8
Meretz – 6
UTJ – 5
Kadima -2
Otzma – 2
Hadash – 3
Balad – 2
Ra'am - 3

[Vosem]

There's a lot of interesting trends in the youth vote...none of the Arab parties, or for some reason Livni, make it in...UTJ falls below the threshold...Otzma leIsrael doesn't shift at all...but Green Leaf (!) and Koach leHashpi'a (!!) would enter the Knesset. If you were to translate this youth vote into Knesset seats, you would get (I took all parties with 2%+, multiplied their percent by 120/93 and rounded to the nearest whole number). And then in parentheses next to it you see numbers compared to the actual poll (future of Israeli politics!):

Likud Beiteinu 23 (-10)
Labour 19 (+1)
Jewish Home 18 (+4)
Meretz 17 (+11)
Shas 16 (+5)
Yesh Atid 9 (-2)
Koach leHashpi'a 9 (+9)
Green Leaf 6 (+6)
Otzma leIsrael 3 (+1)
Hatnuah 0 (-8)
United Torah Judaism 0 (-5)
Kadima 0 (-2)
Arab parties 0 (-8)

(gave Shas an extra seat so it would add up to 120, as they were closest)

So...(before anyone asks, since KLH is a religious party, this is a right-religious majority over center-left 69-51, but it's dependent on KLH and OLI, both of which Netanyahu would be unlikely to invite into his coalition)...is turnout particularly low among Arab youth? Could some of the more unusual trends (I want to list some, but...really there's nothing not notable in that poll) be explained?

[BigSkyBob]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

Wow, that is racist.

If you are willing to move to a tribal state, you should be expecting that your tribal membership might be questioned. I would have been enraged if this were happening in any civilized country, but here it seems hilariously appropriate.

Then again, there are these folks:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/24/bnei-menashe-move-to-israel-indian-jews-from-lost-tribe-arrive-in-holy-land-photos_n_2359086.html

Compared to these folks the Russian emigrants are more Semitic by blood, and have practitioners of Judaism much further down the family tree. Seems the Shas stood in the government that admitted them.

[danny]

So...(before anyone asks, since KLH is a religious party, this is a right-religious majority over center-left 69-51, but it's dependent on KLH and OLI, both of which Netanyahu would be unlikely to invite into his coalition)...is turnout particularly low among Arab youth? Could some of the more unusual trends (I want to list some, but...really there's nothing not notable in that poll) be explained?

I don't think these polls are good predictors of the future, also, Green Leaf is not left wing, they are libertarian, and would be easily the most right wing economically were they to enter the knesset. Regarding peace/security issues they support a referendum before agreeing to any peace deal.

Here is their platform, it doesn't look left wing at all.

[danny]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

Wow, that is racist.

If you are willing to move to a tribal state, you should be expecting that your tribal membership might be questioned. I would have been enraged if this were happening in any civilized country, but here it seems hilariously appropriate.

Then again, there are these folks:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/24/bnei-menashe-move-to-israel-indian-jews-from-lost-tribe-arrive-in-holy-land-photos_n_2359086.html

Compared to these folks the Russian emigrants are more Semitic by blood, and have practitioners of Judaism much further down the family tree. Seems the Shas stood in the government that admitted them.

The whole point of Shas is to represent the non-white(Ashkenazi) religious people. Naturally, they would have more problem with secular white (and possibly non-Jewish) Russians than the non-askenazi more dark skinned and religious groups you mentioned.

[minionofmidas]

Wait... I'm aware of a rather divergent but nonetheless clearly "Jewish" people in India... the opposite end of India.

These people are news to me.

[Hnv1]

So...(before anyone asks, since KLH is a religious party, this is a right-religious majority over center-left 69-51, but it's dependent on KLH and OLI, both of which Netanyahu would be unlikely to invite into his coalition)...is turnout particularly low among Arab youth? Could some of the more unusual trends (I want to list some, but...really there's nothing not notable in that poll) be explained?

I don't think these polls are good predictors of the future, also, Green Leaf is not left wing, they are libertarian, and would be easily the most right wing economically were they to enter the knesset. Regarding peace/security issues they support a referendum before agreeing to any peace deal.

Here is their platform, it doesn't look left wing at all.

Green Leaf are an interesting set of people they metamorphose every election. Now it's ultra libertarianism once it was social democracy (and let's not forget the joint effort with the holocaust survivors party).

There 40Kish voters are usually first time voters who end up deserting them completely as they mature, GL are a bunch of buffoons (from personal acquaintance I state this)

[Benj]

Wait... I'm aware of a rather divergent but nonetheless clearly "Jewish" people in India... the opposite end of India.

These people are news to me.

Funny story... I once dated a Bnei Menashe Jew, a Chin. His family must have been close to the only Bnei Menashe in the United States. He was from Burma, not India, though. He was nonreligious, essentially atheist, but his family were deeply religious. They're clearly not of Jewish descent, but there's a sizeable Jewish community anyway. I think there's a similar group somewhere in central Africa that claims Jewish ancestry but is clearly not ancestrally Jewish.

On the youth poll, doesn't KLH represent the radically anti-Zionist Hasidim? Or some of them, anyway? I think they're led by the guy who said Theodor Herzl was worse than Hitler. Definitely not the sort of party that Likud or JH or anyone else, really, could work with. Of course, the poll looks flawed. No young Arab voters? Unlikely.

[BigSkyBob]

Wait... I'm aware of a rather divergent but nonetheless clearly "Jewish" people in India... the opposite end of India.

These people are news to me.

Funny story... I once dated a Bnei Menashe Jew, a Chin. His family must have been close to the only Bnei Menashe in the United States. He was from Burma, not India, though. He was nonreligious, essentially atheist, but his family were deeply religious. They're clearly not of Jewish descent, but there's a sizeable Jewish community anyway. I think there's a similar group somewhere in central Africa that claims Jewish ancestry but is clearly not ancestrally Jewish.

.

Genetic tests suggest otherwise.

[danny]

Just the endorsement Bibi needed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm5Je73bYOY

[ag]

Just the endorsement Bibi needed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm5Je73bYOY

Especially, post-election, when he needs to deal with the US administration

[Dereich]

This is one of the most shameless cases of the pot calling the kettle black I've seen in a while. Likud accuses Obama of trying to interfere in the Israeli election: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?ID=299709&R=R1&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Kitteh]

This is one of the most shameless cases of the pot calling the kettle black I've seen in a while. Likud accuses Obama of trying to interfere in the Israeli election: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?ID=299709&R=R1&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

lol

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, those 2 hate each other's guts. Old news.

New Yorker has a very lengthy (10pp) Bennett profile.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/01/21/130121fa_fact_remnick?currentPage=all

[Famous Mortimer]

Question regarding Haaretz interview with Dov Khenin:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israeli-elections-2013/israeli-elections-news-features/mk-dov-khenin-netanyahu-government-is-dangerous-for-israel-1.494332

"Do you support mandatory civil service for those who do not serve in the army? Hadash supports the mandatory draft law for the Druze but if the law is canceled, is not also legitimate for the ultra-Orthodox not to join the army? (Dalia and Eilon)"

What? Hadash supports forcing Druze to serve in the army?

[danny]

Question regarding Haaretz interview with Dov Khenin:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israeli-elections-2013/israeli-elections-news-features/mk-dov-khenin-netanyahu-government-is-dangerous-for-israel-1.494332

"Do you support mandatory civil service for those who do not serve in the army? Hadash supports the mandatory draft law for the Druze but if the law is canceled, is not also legitimate for the ultra-Orthodox not to join the army? (Dalia and Eilon)"

What? Hadash supports forcing Druze to serve in the army?

They don't, it's a fail translation from Haaretz, the Hebrew version says the opposite.

[Famous Mortimer]

That makes more sense. Thanks.

[danny]

The deadline for polls has passed, and there was a flood of polls, I don't have time to write them all here but here is someone who compiled most of them:
http://knessetjeremy.com/

[Vosem]

Final Vosem prediction, after spending way too much time trying to weight polls based on their accuracy in 2009 and coming up with something a simple average could've given you:

Likud Beiteinu 34
Labor 17
Jewish Home 14
Yesh Atid 12
Shas 11
The Movement 7
Meretz 6
United Torah Judaism 6
Hadash 4
United Arab List 4
Balad 3
Kadima 2

The right-religious bloc of LB/JH/Shas/UTJ has 65 seats, while the left-center bloc (not counting the Arabs) has 44, with 11 -- same as last time -- going to the Arabs. Not that the government-formation is going to be that simple, of course...

[danny]

Election day is finally here

Turnout is 11.4% until 10:00, the highest since 1999 and 1.1% higher than 2009:

[danny]

I'm back from voting, no line at all, so I went right in.

26.7% voted until 12:00, still highest since 1999, now 3.3% more than 2009.

[Hash]

Any place to follow the results when they come in, preferably in English?

[danny]

Any place to follow the results when they come in, preferably in English?

I imagine all the Israeli news sites will have a result page, bot they haven't posted them yet.

[danny]

38.3% voted until 14:00, 4.3% more than 2009.