Israeli General Election 2013

[DL]

Are there any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by there being a higher turnout?

[Tender Branson]

Judging by the trend of the last polls on Wikipedia, I expect some sort of debacle for Likud.

Maybe only 25-30 seats, instead of the 35 that were projected a few weeks before.

But still well enough to come in first.

[minionofmidas]

But still well enough to come in first.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that not happening can be safely ruled out.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that all media seems to report that this is a lackluster campaign with low enthusiasm.  But turnout seems to be significantly higher than 2009.

[danny]

It is interesting that all media seems to report that this is a lackluster campaign with low enthusiasm.  But turnout seems to be significantly higher than 2009.

Yeah, the media doesn't seem to know these kinds of things.

[Tender Branson]

Thing I noticed:

Naftali Bennett has some kind of hot wife.

[danny]

46.6% voted until 16:00, 4.7% more than 2009.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reports (lots of them) that turnout is lower in Likud strongholds.

[danny]

55.5% voted until 18:00, 5.2% more than 2009.

[Tender Branson]

55.5% voted until 18:00, 5.2% more than 2009.

Looking at the turnout chart on the previous page, it really depends how many people vote after work.

Turnout could be anywhere between 69% and 79%.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: Danny, who did you vote for ?

[danny]

BTW: Danny, who did you vote for ?

Jewish Home, but my family voted Lapid.

[jaichind]

Likud fears it may score only 31 seats in light of party's low voter turnout. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Haaretz late Tuesday afternoon that voter turnout in Likud strongholds around Israel were low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it may be crashing in the election. As the evening wore on, Netanyahu was continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.
Could be a ploy to get Likud voters to come out.

[danny]

Likud fears it may score only 31 seats in light of party's low voter turnout. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Haaretz late Tuesday afternoon that voter turnout in Likud strongholds around Israel were low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it may be crashing in the election. As the evening wore on, Netanyahu was continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.
Could be a ploy to get Likud voters to come out.

It is a ploy, but it may be true anyway. Bibi spent a lot of the elections trying to convince people that he hasn't won yet.

[Kitteh]

Thing I noticed:

Naftali Bennett has some kind of hot wife.

In other news, Naftali Bennett looks like a naked mole rat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Twitterland is going crazy for Lapid.

Also, apparently:

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[danny]

63.7% voted until 20:00, 4% more than 2009:

[minionofmidas]

How long til polls close?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About an hour and a quarter, I think.

[danny]

Yes, an hour and 10 minutes from now.

[Dereich]

Apparently Likud internals show the situation as being: Likud 30, Lapid 20, Jewish Home 15. But that's from twitter and who knows if you can trust it.

[Kitteh]

Those Lapid numbers seem impossible.

[Dereich]

The Jewish Home people apparently say their internals have Likud at 35 and themselves fighting with Lapid for 2nd place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know; large parts of the Israeli electorate are quite astonishingly volatile. Where is Kadima now?

[Insula Dei]

If Likud-Beiteynu is really down to 30 or so seats, where did those votes go?