Israeli General Election 2013

[jaichind]

Israel's Likud rattled by centrist, far-right surge: radio
Jan. 22 (AFP) -- Less than an hour before polls closed in Israel's election on Tuesday, indicators showed strong support for the centrist Yesh Atid and the far-right Jewish Home parties, with the ruling Likud struggling, army radio said Tuesday.
Ahead of exit polls due to be published shortly after 10 pm (2000 GMT), the radio said Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Naftali Bennett's Jewish Home had turned into "the big surprise" of the election campaign.
Although Likud head Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was likely to be easily re-elected, this would complicate his task of forming the next coalition government, it said.
Polling ahead of the vote had projected an easy win for the joint list fusing Netanyahu's Likud with the hardline nationalist Yisrael Beitenu, although they are only expected to win about 32 mandates, just over a quarter of the 120 seats in parliament.
As voting entered the final stretch, Netanyahu posted a worried-sounding message on his official Facebook page, although it was not clear whether it was a case of last-minute electioneering.
"The Likud's rule is in danger. I ask that you leave everything and go out to vote (Likud) now. This is very important, to ensure Israel's future," he wrote.

[Famous Mortimer]

I was just thinking that since Kadima and Whole Nation have a voter surplus agreement, and both are so close to the threshold, it's actually almost certain that at least one of them will make it (if I'm understanding the election system right).

At the moment, Kadima has the more momentum between the two, so it's very likely Shaul Mofaz and probably Yisrael Hasson will make it back into the Knesset.

[danny]

I was just thinking that since Kadima and Whole Nation have a voter surplus agreement, and both are so close to the threshold, it's actually almost certain that at least one of them will make it (if I'm understanding the election system right).

At the moment, Kadima has the more momentum between the two, so it's very likely Shaul Mofaz and probably Yisrael Hasson will make it back into the Knesset.

It doesn't work that way, a voter surplus agreement only counts if both parties pass the threshold.

[Insula Dei]

By the by, if anyone were inclined to discuss results in our mibbit chat room (#atlasforum), who am I to stop you?

[danny]

Journalists are hinting at a surprisingly good result for Lapid.

[jaichind]

Journalists are hinting at a surprisingly good result for Lapid.

I have frieds from work that now work in our Israeli office.  All of them are Labor supporters but all of them it seems voted for Lapid so what you say aboue does not surprise me.

[jaichind]

Looks like it is Likud first and Yesh Atid second.

[jaichind]

Exit poll, Likud 31, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17

[Dereich]

First exit polls: Likud 31, Lapid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 12, Hatuna 7, Meretz 7

I think its from Channel 2

[jaichind]

If Labor and Yish Atid did that well, then it must be a bad night for Kadima and Hatnuah

[minionofmidas]

So I take it Israeli exit polls are all over the place?

How long til we get somewhat dependable results?

[Dereich]

If Labor and Yish Atid did that well, then it must be a bad night for Kadima and Hatnuah

Apparently Hatunah is at around 6 mandates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Channel 2 exit poll: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Shas 12, JH-NU 12, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2

[jaichind]

Channel 2 exit poll: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Shas 12, JH-NU 12, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2

Wow, that would make it Right-Religious 61, Center-Left-Arab 59. 

[Dereich]

New one! Channel 10 exit poll: Likud gets 31 seats, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 13, Hatnuah 6, Meretz 6.

So much for that JH surge.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

[Dereich]

Ooh! This is new! Labor officials: we're not ruling out endorsing Lapid for PM

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Channel 1: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, JH-NU 12, Shas 11, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2, Strong Israel 2

[minionofmidas]

Ooh! This is new! Labor officials: we're not ruling out endorsing Lapid for PM

How's that going to go, Lapid-Labor-Shas-Meretz-Hatnuah?
Looks a little unworkable to me.

[jaichind]

And I do not think they have the numbers.

Ooh! This is new! Labor officials: we're not ruling out endorsing Lapid for PM

How's that going to go, Lapid-Labor-Shas-Meretz-Hatnuah?
Looks a little unworkable to me.

[Insula Dei]

Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

The international media will be just fine. Never let reality affect the narrative.

[jaichind]

Summery of exit polls

Vhannel Two exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats in 120-member parliament, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 12, Livni’s Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 61

 Channel 1 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 11, Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 60

 Channel 10 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31, seats, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 13, Hatenuah 6, Meretz 6, UTJ 6, Hadash 5, Ra’am-Ta’al 4, Balad 2 ... Right-Relgious 62

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

The international media will be just fine. Never let reality affect the narrative.

True, true. Though I meant the coverage before the election.

[Kitteh]

Summery of exit polls

Vhannel Two exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats in 120-member parliament, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 12, Livni’s Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 61

 Channel 1 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 11, Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 60

 Channel 10 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31, seats, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 13, Hatenuah 6, Meretz 6, UTJ 6, Hadash 5, Ra’am-Ta’al 4, Balad 2 ... Right-Relgious 62

So from the exit polls, coalition numbers:

Likud-Lapid-JH (center-right)
Channel 2: 62
Channel 1: 62
Channel 10: 61

Likud-Shas-JH-UTJ (right-religious)
Channel 2: 61
Channel 1: 60
Channel 10: 62

Lapid-Labor-Shas-Meretz-Hatnuah (center-left-religious, or anti-Bibi)
Channel 2: 62
Channel 1: 61
Channel 10: 60

(Majority in bold)

[jaichind]

It is 9:46PM in Tel Aviv now.  Will they finish the count tonight or will this drag out to tomorrow?