Israeli General Election 2013
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Author Topic: Israeli General Election 2013  (Read 70944 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #450 on: January 25, 2013, 09:57:38 PM »

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.
Of course, that sort of party would get about 5 votes nationwide.

Actually that party was called Hope for Change and it got 650 votes. It came in second to last although it did manage to beat Moreshet Avot, a fake party set up to steal votes from UTJ.
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danny
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« Reply #451 on: January 25, 2013, 10:22:05 PM »

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.

I'm shocked Balad got .66% of those votes. Trollin'?

Double envelope is not only soldiers, it includes diplomats, hospital patients, and probably most important in this case, prisoners.
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jaichind
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« Reply #452 on: January 26, 2013, 02:17:55 PM »

One thing about the Israel system that does not make sense to me is the issue of party splits.  It is interesting that parties like Hatnuah can be split from Kadima, Am Shalem from Shahs, and Otzma LeYisrael from National Union and yet still retain MKs that joined the split.  It seems to be if the vote is for the Party/List and not the individual members, in a split or conflict, the Party/List leadership should be able to replace a MK from the next available person from the list.  If the vote is for the candidate then one can said that the mandate is for the person and if that person breaks with the party he or she belonged to then they still can stay as MK but be part of a new or different party.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #453 on: January 27, 2013, 04:21:42 AM »

Danny, do you know if Tzipi Hotovely supports civil marriage?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #454 on: January 27, 2013, 08:26:28 AM »



Errors possible and will be happily corrected if pointed out. Colours are usually close-ish to official ones, but semi-random in a couple of cases. You can see a bigger version on the gallery (or simply via the known magic of right-click).
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danny
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« Reply #455 on: January 27, 2013, 09:06:52 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 09:09:55 AM by danny »

Danny, do you know if Tzipi Hotovely supports civil marriage?

She is against, but isn't opposed to Israel's domestic partnership equivalent (which includes gays).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #456 on: January 27, 2013, 09:15:12 AM »

One thing about the Israel system that does not make sense to me is the issue of party splits.  It is interesting that parties like Hatnuah can be split from Kadima, Am Shalem from Shahs, and Otzma LeYisrael from National Union and yet still retain MKs that joined the split.  It seems to be if the vote is for the Party/List and not the individual members, in a split or conflict, the Party/List leadership should be able to replace a MK from the next available person from the list.  If the vote is for the candidate then one can said that the mandate is for the person and if that person breaks with the party he or she belonged to then they still can stay as MK but be part of a new or different party.
A list is an alliance of people. The people get voted for, as a package. If you can't keep that alliance together, why should some random faction that happens to be the majority keep all the seats?

This is not to say that that kind of talking point doesn't get wheeled out every other time an MP elected through a list system switches parties,  but it's still bogus.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #457 on: January 27, 2013, 02:21:18 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 02:23:20 PM by Comrade Sibboleth »

Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #458 on: January 27, 2013, 02:35:32 PM »

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Drop Ale Yarok.
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Yeah, this grouping doesn't make sense. UTJ is an Ashkenazi party, Shas is the Mizrahi party (and in terms of where the vote comes from, not exclusively a Haredi party either.)
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danny
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« Reply #459 on: January 27, 2013, 02:45:58 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 02:54:06 PM by danny »

Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.

Ale Yarok is fine in the sense that it is normal for parties without much of an opinion on left/right issues to be considered centre.

You could also add Eretz Hadasha to the Left and Koach Lehashpia to the Haredi.

Also, while I don't have a problem with this, Shelly and Livni would disagree, as they don't like being called left.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #460 on: January 28, 2013, 01:37:05 PM »

Yeah, this grouping doesn't make sense. UTJ is an Ashkenazi party, Shas is the Mizrahi party (and in terms of where the vote comes from, not exclusively a Haredi party either.)

Damn you Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #461 on: January 28, 2013, 01:38:15 PM »

Also, while I don't have a problem with this, Shelly and Livni would disagree, as they don't like being called left.

I suppose I could always add another disclaimer, this one about the odd use of political labels...
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RodPresident
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« Reply #462 on: January 28, 2013, 03:46:00 PM »

Lapid has to choice to become Israeli Jack Layton or Israeli Nick Clegg...
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #463 on: January 29, 2013, 06:51:51 AM »

If Labor doesn't join the government, they have to have a new leadership election within 14 months.

Awkwardly for Yacimovich, that means by advocating they stay in opposition, she's setting herself up for a leadership challenge.

Aside from Yacimovich, obvious candidates are Isaac Herzog, a terrible centrist third wayer, and Eitan Cabel, the party's top former Peretzite.

The Times of Israel also mentioned Gabi Ashkenazi, former IDF chief of staff closely linked to Livni, as a possible dark horse. (Also, despite the name he's only half Ashkenazi and half Syrian)
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Vosem
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« Reply #464 on: January 29, 2013, 06:57:39 AM »

Lapid has to choice to become Israeli Jack Layton or Israeli Nick Clegg...

If that's the analogy you're going to use, then he's made it perfectly clear since the elections he would Clegg (and beforehand a reasonably perceptive voter could also have understood this).

Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.

I think you should include either all parties (but that would be a true pain in the ass) or just the parties which passed the Knesset threshold (all the other parties got thrown out, after all). In which case I might use the Haaretz 'groups' -- have right be Likud Beiteinu+Jewish Home; have religious be Shas+UTJ, even though they have very different voter blocs; Arab is obvious; and then I would combine left and center into one grand 'left-center' group, Labor+Meretz+Hatnuah+Yesh Atid+Kadima; while it's clear Meretz is decisively left and the latter two are decisively center arguments could be made for both on Labor and Hatnuah. (If you really want to break it up, Labor and Meretz outright said before the elections they wouldn't join Netanyahu and the other parties didn't, so you could use that as a faultline if you want to separate left and center; left could be Labor+Meretz and center could be Yesh Atid+Hatnuah+Kadima).
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #465 on: January 30, 2013, 01:11:05 PM »

So Likud, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kadima have all recommended to President Peres that he give Netanyahu the task of negotiating a government.

Not an official coalition agreement but a pretty obvious foreshadowing.
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Donerail
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« Reply #466 on: January 30, 2013, 01:47:22 PM »

So Likud, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kadima have all recommended to President Peres that he give Netanyahu the task of negotiating a government.

Not an official coalition agreement but a pretty obvious foreshadowing.

Then here's hoping for Likud-Yesh Atid-JH-Kadima.
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Vosem
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« Reply #467 on: January 30, 2013, 09:01:05 PM »

So Likud, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kadima have all recommended to President Peres that he give Netanyahu the task of negotiating a government.

Not an official coalition agreement but a pretty obvious foreshadowing.

Then here's hoping for Likud-Yesh Atid-JH-Kadima.

That's a very broad coalition. I would ask how Yesh Atid and Shas will both manage to sit in it, but in 2009 I would've asked the same question about Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas and they managed to figure that out. Ultimately I do think this will be the 'real' government; Netanyahu just doesn't want to start at 64, where each party (except Kadima, but apparently they will be part of Yesh Atid soon) understands they can overthrow him. So when will we know about cabinet posts and jazz like that?
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danny
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« Reply #468 on: January 31, 2013, 09:52:43 AM »


So when will we know about cabinet posts and jazz like that?

Theoretically, the deadline for the formation of a new government is 20/3, but it will probably take less than that.

And here is the first post election poll from mako:

Yesh Atid - 27
Likud Beitenu- 25
JH-NU - 15
Labour - 12
Shas - 9
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 7
The Movement - 4
Hadash - 4
Raam-Taal - 2
Balad -2
Otzma- 2
Kadima - 2
Am Shalem - 2

If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #469 on: January 31, 2013, 10:02:05 AM »

Yesh Atid's only hope for winning the next election is to bring down the government in the next year.

If the government doesn't draft the ultra-Orthodox and Yesh Atid props them up anyway for something approaching a full term, they won't even be competing in the next election as they will have split into at least 3 different factions.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #470 on: February 02, 2013, 08:48:32 AM »

If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.
He has no choice but to join the government in a subordinate position, and therefore no chance to do that.
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ag
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« Reply #471 on: February 02, 2013, 11:19:39 PM »

If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.
He has no choice but to join the government in a subordinate position, and therefore no chance to do that.

Well, he could support the government from the outside, for the moment, and then bring it down on some principle at a suitable moment.  This would be the smartest thing to do, probably.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #472 on: February 02, 2013, 11:20:14 PM »

Netanyahu got the commission today.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #473 on: February 03, 2013, 06:19:11 PM »



Results by municipality in the Tel Aviv District.
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danny
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« Reply #474 on: February 05, 2013, 05:54:52 PM »

Interesting, are you planning on doing any more of these maps?
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