Israeli General Election 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Balad is more militant and extreme in advocating for the Palestinian cause. That might be why they put them to the left of Hadash.

A better explanation though, would just be that they're wrong.

A couple years ago, Balad was actually trying to establish itself as a free market liberal party. They even had membership in the Liberal International for a while.

They've abandoned that though. Now their only ideology is anti-Zionism.

[Famous Mortimer]

Netanyahu will probably aim to have the current coalition plus Labor. Conventional wisdom says he would give Yachimovich the post of Finance Minister. I doubt that though, he's too much of a free market dogmatist to do that. He'll probably try to give her Defense or Foreign Affairs instead (in a way, Liberman being indited has helped Netanyahu by freeing up a big ministry he can use to court the left) In recent days there's also been talk of him giving Livni the Foreign Ministry. I don't think this is too likely though but presumably the idea is he would focus on domestic and economic issues while giving Livni free reign to negotiate with the Palestinians.

[Famous Mortimer]

Brainfart. Although Netanyahu would like to get Labor on board (after all, that was the exact coalition he formed after the previous election), his first obvious choice for expanding his majority would be Yesh Atid. Lapid would be absolutely willing to serve in a Likud-Jewish Home-Shas government. He's said as much before and he hasn't been nearly as militantly secular as people expected in general, with the appointment of various liberal and not so liberal rabbis to his list. Additionally, let's not forget the historical Shinui's free market bent and the fact that they sat in Sharon's government alongside the NRP and Agudat Yisrael.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni isn't going to join Netanyahu. Nor is Lapid going to base his decision on Livni. There's no love lost between them. If there was. He would have joined her list as her number 2. Netanyahu doesn't want a coalition as narrow as Likud-Jewish Home-Shas-UTJ, nor does he want a coalition as narrow as Likud-Jewish Home-Yesh Atid. The final coalition will be Likud-Jewish Home-Shas-Yesh Atid. Lapid's statement that he wouldn't sit with Shas was full of weasel words. He'll end up sitting with such a far right government by claiming his own presence stops it from being far right.

[Famous Mortimer]

Question regarding Haaretz interview with Dov Khenin:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israeli-elections-2013/israeli-elections-news-features/mk-dov-khenin-netanyahu-government-is-dangerous-for-israel-1.494332

"Do you support mandatory civil service for those who do not serve in the army? Hadash supports the mandatory draft law for the Druze but if the law is canceled, is not also legitimate for the ultra-Orthodox not to join the army? (Dalia and Eilon)"

What? Hadash supports forcing Druze to serve in the army?

[Famous Mortimer]

That makes more sense. Thanks.

[Famous Mortimer]

I was just thinking that since Kadima and Whole Nation have a voter surplus agreement, and both are so close to the threshold, it's actually almost certain that at least one of them will make it (if I'm understanding the election system right).

At the moment, Kadima has the more momentum between the two, so it's very likely Shaul Mofaz and probably Yisrael Hasson will make it back into the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

A 62 seat coalition is not a realistic possibility. Too many worries about defections (from crazy right-wings in JH and left-wings in Yesh).

Even if it was a stable, guaranteed 62 though, Netanyahu wouldn't go for it. He has a boner for broad coalitions.

[Famous Mortimer]

Likud-Yesh-JH-Shas seems like the most obvious.

That's been complicated by Yesh coming in ahead of Shas though.

Had it been the other way around, Lapid could have just shrugged his shoulders and let Shas had their way based on them having more seats.

Now people will actually expect him to get his platform implemented.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni's not joining this government. She wouldn't do it for anything less than the Foreign Ministry and Netanyahu can't really justify giving that to her based on just 7 seats (actually more like 5 as I doubt Peretz and Mitzna would go along).

[Famous Mortimer]

Kadima's going to be relevant again.

Oh, Israel!

[Famous Mortimer]

With 99% of the vote counted, Haaretz is giving "final" numbers:

Likud 31 (poor)
Yesh Atid 19 (mind blowing, the story of the election)
Labor 15 (piss poor)
Shas 11 (same as last time but kind of sucky when you consider the fuss they made about the return of Aryeh Deri)
Jewish Home 11 (would have been considered an insanely good showing a year ago but not so much after all the media coverage and the polls showing them in at least 3rd)
United Torah Judaism 7 (I'll believe this when I see it. If it is true I'll chalk it up to increased turnout due to fear of the draft)
Tzipi Livni Party 6 (terrible showing but at least she got more votes than Meretz, that would have been truly embarrassing if she hadn't)
Meretz 6 (doubling their seats from last time. Also getting their Arab candidate elected)
United Arab List 5 (Amazing showing as demonstrated by Taleb el-Sana squeaking to re-election despite being demoted on the list)
Hadash 4 (Exact same as last time, same number of seats, same MKs filing them. Success for Hadash would have been winning at least 5 and getting their Christian lady candidate, Nabila Espanioly, elected)
Balad 3 (same number of seats as last time. Nice to see them come in last among the Arab parties I guess)
Kadima 2 (winning any seats was a victory. Shaul Mofaz becomes a potential king maker in a tightly contested Knesset. Defense Minister becomes a remote possibility.)

[Famous Mortimer]

I wonder who will take over the Labor Party now. Peretz would have been the obvious choice but he ed himself out of that. Isaac Herzog is sure to run as a boring Third Wayer again. Avishay Braverman will probably run as the economically left-wing candidate. Maybe Ophir Pines-Paz as the peace candidate?

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni can't be considered left? The number 2 and 3 on her list are former Labor Party leaders.

Livni goes in the left-wing bloc without a moments thought.

She's certainly more to the left than Yesh Atid.

[Famous Mortimer]

I guess that Netanyahu making a coalition with all three religious parties Shas, Jewish Home and UTJ, possibly adding Kadima or, what the hell, Labour or Livni, would piss off the US, am I right ?

He would add Yesh Atid before he added Labor and Labor before he added Livni. Yesh Atid is the most right-wing of those 3 groups.

Yes, Yesh Atid is secularist (although not nearly as much as people think) and the religious parties are religious but you have to remember Yisrael Beytenu was hardcore secularist and they sat in government with Shas.

It seems the only plausible coalition would be a center one like : Likud-IB, Yesh Atid, Livni, Labor. Is that possible ?

No. Not possible at all. Netanyahu would be removed as party leader if he tried to do that.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also somewhat interesting, based on Haaretz numbers:

Number of Arabs in the new Knesset: 5 UAL members + 3 Balad members + 3 out of 4 Hadash members + one Druze from Likud Beytenu + one Muslim from Meretz = 13 Arab Members (including 1 Druze and 1 Christian)

That's down from 17 in the outgoing Knesset (which included 1 Christian and 6 Druze)

So the number of Arabs (using a broad definition that includes the Druze) went down 7

but the number of Muslims went up 1 (Assuming that Barakeh and Agbaria of Hadash are nominal Muslims despite their membership in a Communist Party).

[Famous Mortimer]

Big surprise. Apparently Netanyahu is now trying to negotiate a coalition WITHOUT JEWISH HOME.

Likud/Yesh Atid/Shas would have exactly 61 seats.

Such a narrow government is simply not realistic though. It would seriously last less than a year before Yesh Atid inevitably splinters or some Likud backbencher tries to bring down the government for not being right-wing enough.

Bibi would like to pad out those numbers with Labor but for the moment they're standing firm on remaining in the opposition. Of course, that was the line they took after the last election as well.

I could see Labor cracking if Bibi convinces them he really does want to re-start peace talks but at that point, he has to really worry about being toppled as party leader.

Kadima seems like a potentially less offensive partner to rank and file Likudniks.

Still, that's only 63 seats.

I'm going to go ahead and keep my prediction that this ends up being Likud/Yesh Atid/Jewish Home/Shas.

[Famous Mortimer]

"A couple of months ago I was sipping lemonade on a Herzliya rooftop with a senior Israeli politician who offered me to join the “Center Party”. There was something about that idea. See, journalists dream about politics the way 16 year-olds dream about sex. After two hours of conversation there was one thing I just couldn’t understand: the center of what? That aforementioned centrist party is really just a codename for a group of people unwilling to take responsibility. It will be the Vague Party with a bunch of wily characters. Under the title “Center” they can run in the elections without committing to anything."

- Yair Lapid

16 October 1998

http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/122373/yesh-atid-is-the-new-kadima

Lulz.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are there any polls or other data as to what percentage of Israeli Arabs vote for non Arab parties?  Just curious if there are any cracks in the ethnic/religious curtain.

"Interestingly enough, some 21% of the Arab vote went to Jewish/Zionist parties, with more voting for the Likud and Shas (8%), than for Meretz and Labor (6.8%). Another 2.6% of the Arab vote went to Kadima."

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=300910

Unsure if those numbers are counting Druze as Arab though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)

Here are the actual double envelope results.

I'm shocked Balad got .66% of those votes. Trollin'?

[Famous Mortimer]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

The media didn't discount Arab parties taking part in a coalition. In fact, they did just the opposite. They hyped up the possibility of the Arabs supporting an anti-Netanyahu coalition from the outside. All that ridiculous 60-60 tie talk.

Of course, Lapid shot that all down when he said he supported Netanyahu and that he wouldn't join a government backed by Haneen Zoabi, the Balad member most hated by Jews.

In the past though, Arabs have propped up left-wing governments. Rabin's government famously received non-coalition support from Arab parties.

Back in Rabin's day, however, Arab parties were a lot more moderate. That was before Balad existed, before the Islamic Movement organized as United Arab List, before Ahmed Tibi formed Ta'al.

Back then the only two Arab parties with seats were Hadash and the Arab Democratic Party*, which was actually founded by a former Labor MK.

Hadash could hypothetically still be used to buffer a left-wing minority government in the future. They're the only ones though. UAL and Balad are too radical. Mainstream Zionist politicians wouldn't want the bad PR of being connected to them (as demonstrated by Lapid's comments) and a lot of them themselves are on record as saying Labor and Livni are just as bad as Likud and all fascists.

*The Arab Democratic Party is now part of United Arab List. They have have grown much more radical and there's no chance they would break away to back a left-wing government. It's a moot point though now because their only MK, Taleb el-Sana (number 5 on the UAL list) just lost his seat.

[Famous Mortimer]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.

Of course, that sort of party would get about 5 votes nationwide.

Actually that party was called Hope for Change and it got 650 votes. It came in second to last although it did manage to beat Moreshet Avot, a fake party set up to steal votes from UTJ.

[Famous Mortimer]

Danny, do you know if Tzipi Hotovely supports civil marriage?

[Famous Mortimer]

If Labor doesn't join the government, they have to have a new leadership election within 14 months.

Awkwardly for Yacimovich, that means by advocating they stay in opposition, she's setting herself up for a leadership challenge.

Aside from Yacimovich, obvious candidates are Isaac Herzog, a terrible centrist third wayer, and Eitan Cabel, the party's top former Peretzite.

The Times of Israel also mentioned Gabi Ashkenazi, former IDF chief of staff closely linked to Livni, as a possible dark horse. (Also, despite the name he's only half Ashkenazi and half Syrian)

[Famous Mortimer]

So Likud, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kadima have all recommended to President Peres that he give Netanyahu the task of negotiating a government.

Not an official coalition agreement but a pretty obvious foreshadowing.