Israeli General Election 2013

[jaichind]

I am very surprised by the revival of the Labor party in Irsael looking at the latest polls.  Equally surprising is the fall of Kadima

[jaichind]

While I do not claim to know a lot about Israeli politics but my came out to Hatnuah or The Movement which just got formed by Tzipi Livni.  Not a huge surprise.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that all media seems to report that this is a lackluster campaign with low enthusiasm.  But turnout seems to be significantly higher than 2009.

[jaichind]

Likud fears it may score only 31 seats in light of party's low voter turnout. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Haaretz late Tuesday afternoon that voter turnout in Likud strongholds around Israel were low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it may be crashing in the election. As the evening wore on, Netanyahu was continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.
Could be a ploy to get Likud voters to come out.

[jaichind]

Israel's Likud rattled by centrist, far-right surge: radio
Jan. 22 (AFP) -- Less than an hour before polls closed in Israel's election on Tuesday, indicators showed strong support for the centrist Yesh Atid and the far-right Jewish Home parties, with the ruling Likud struggling, army radio said Tuesday.
Ahead of exit polls due to be published shortly after 10 pm (2000 GMT), the radio said Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Naftali Bennett's Jewish Home had turned into "the big surprise" of the election campaign.
Although Likud head Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was likely to be easily re-elected, this would complicate his task of forming the next coalition government, it said.
Polling ahead of the vote had projected an easy win for the joint list fusing Netanyahu's Likud with the hardline nationalist Yisrael Beitenu, although they are only expected to win about 32 mandates, just over a quarter of the 120 seats in parliament.
As voting entered the final stretch, Netanyahu posted a worried-sounding message on his official Facebook page, although it was not clear whether it was a case of last-minute electioneering.
"The Likud's rule is in danger. I ask that you leave everything and go out to vote (Likud) now. This is very important, to ensure Israel's future," he wrote.

[jaichind]

Journalists are hinting at a surprisingly good result for Lapid.

I have frieds from work that now work in our Israeli office.  All of them are Labor supporters but all of them it seems voted for Lapid so what you say aboue does not surprise me.

[jaichind]

Looks like it is Likud first and Yesh Atid second.

[jaichind]

Exit poll, Likud 31, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17

[jaichind]

If Labor and Yish Atid did that well, then it must be a bad night for Kadima and Hatnuah

[jaichind]

Channel 2 exit poll: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Shas 12, JH-NU 12, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2

Wow, that would make it Right-Religious 61, Center-Left-Arab 59. 

[jaichind]

And I do not think they have the numbers.

Ooh! This is new! Labor officials: we're not ruling out endorsing Lapid for PM

How's that going to go, Lapid-Labor-Shas-Meretz-Hatnuah?
Looks a little unworkable to me.

[jaichind]

Summery of exit polls

Vhannel Two exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats in 120-member parliament, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 12, Livni’s Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 61

 Channel 1 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 11, Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 60

 Channel 10 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31, seats, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 13, Hatenuah 6, Meretz 6, UTJ 6, Hadash 5, Ra’am-Ta’al 4, Balad 2 ... Right-Relgious 62

[jaichind]

It is 9:46PM in Tel Aviv now.  Will they finish the count tonight or will this drag out to tomorrow?

[jaichind]

It is 9:46PM in Tel Aviv now.  Will they finish the count tonight or will this drag out to tomorrow?

Yes, they will finish counting almost all the votes (except for soldiers votes) tonight, although it's an hour later than you think.

Oops.  You are right.  Typo.

[jaichind]

Sorry to jump on this old post, but I just learned from my friends in my company's Tel Aviv office that today is actually a holiday for the elections.  So there is no issue of people voting after work.  Right ?

55.5% voted until 18:00, 5.2% more than 2009.

Looking at the turnout chart on the previous page, it really depends how many people vote after work.

Turnout could be anywhere between 69% and 79%.

[jaichind]

This link has results which are tiny compared to the number of votes cast.  Is this slow on purpose?

Live election results in Hebrew, I'll update an English link if I find one.

[jaichind]

Kadima seems to be doing better than exit polls suggest.  They might actually cross 2%

[jaichind]

I think vote is mostly counted.  By my calculations the seat distribution should be

likud - Israel Beitenu   31
Yesh Atid                  18
Haavoda (Labor)   15
Shas                  11
Jewish Home   11
UTJ                         7
HaTnua                   7
Meretz                   6
Untied Arabs    4
Hadash                   4
Balad                   3
Kadima                   3

[jaichind]

Some more votes counted.  Likud lost another seat.  Right-Religous now down to 59.  Arab parties up to 12 seats.  One thing the media talked about before the election was the apathy of Arab voters and that the Arab parties will lose seats.  Did not seem to have happen either, along with a bunch of other predictions.

Likud - Israel Beitenu   30
Yesh Atid                                 18
Labor                                 15
Shas                                 11
Jewish Home                  11
UTJ                                           7
HaTnua                                   7
Meretz                                   6
Untied Arabs                    5
Hadash                                   4
Balad                                    3
Kadima                                   3

[jaichind]

One thing about the Israel system that does not make sense to me is the issue of party splits.  It is interesting that parties like Hatnuah can be split from Kadima, Am Shalem from Shahs, and Otzma LeYisrael from National Union and yet still retain MKs that joined the split.  It seems to be if the vote is for the Party/List and not the individual members, in a split or conflict, the Party/List leadership should be able to replace a MK from the next available person from the list.  If the vote is for the candidate then one can said that the mandate is for the person and if that person breaks with the party he or she belonged to then they still can stay as MK but be part of a new or different party.