Israeli General Election 2013

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The posts about polling should be moved here, now that the elections are on (or the threads merged).

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Also, do not underestimate within-comunal tensions. There are Russians out there, who've been planning all along voting for Likud in large part because they can't stand Lieberman personally (he does have quite a few enemies within the community). For them it will make their choice tough. At least a few will vote something else - whatever there is, just not Lieberman. And, to the best of my knowledge, there is no other secular right-wing party to vote for - so they will be pushed towards the center, whatever the center is now. Not because they like the center - they don't - but because they hate Lieberman. It won't be a lot, but it will easily make a difference of a couple of seats.

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BTW, I don't know enough of the feelings in the Russian communities within Israel, but it would, definitely, be worth checking how they split by origin back home. Lieberman is a provincial. I am certain he must severely annoy many of those who came from Moscow/Leningrad - even if their families had only spent there a generation or two. If I were Lapid, I'd strongly concentrate on the "capital city" crowd. Get a few "intellectual" Russian faces originally from the big cities. Talk science/technology. Comiserate w/ their difficulty of integrating into the local academic community (that guy was a professor in Moscow - he is now a chef in Ashdod). Won't give him most Russians - but would give him some.

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Actually, just taking a quick look at some Russian-Israeli blogging sites confirms my initial hunch. In many quarters the reaction is reduced to a flood of obscenities. Some people say that they are now, for the first time in their lives, considering Labor. And, predictably, these seem to be "capital-city" types.

More or less in these terms: "and the unf.cked f.cker-up is dearer to me than a scoundrel"

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Of the Kadima ex-Soviets, Shamalova-Berkovich joined Likud and Abesadze goes to Avoda.

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Are the non-Russians aware of internal splits withing the ex-Soviet comminty, or is it viewed, generally, as homogenous?

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A wonderful government it will be LB-JH/NU-Shas-UTJ (or AS? would that work?). I don't envy the finance minister

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Any chance of a Likud Beitenu-Labor-Yesh Atid coalition? By that I mean, any chance of a government formed without an ultra-orthodox party in the coalition?

Why would Labor want to commit a post-resurrection suicide?

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Kinda funny to see union support being pivotal in a primary for the largest centre-right party . But of course class voting patterns in Israel are totally different from the rest of the western world.

Corrected

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Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Considering that at the last election Likud and YB together had 42 seats, it was 40 smthg where they started. Having 32 seats between the two is pretty damn bad.

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Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

Wow, that is racist.

If you are willing to move to a tribal state, you should be expecting that your tribal membership might be questioned. I would have been enraged if this were happening in any civilized country, but here it seems hilariously appropriate.

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Just the endorsement Bibi needed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm5Je73bYOY

Especially, post-election, when he needs to deal with the US administration

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If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.

He has no choice but to join the government in a subordinate position, and therefore no chance to do that.

Well, he could support the government from the outside, for the moment, and then bring it down on some principle at a suitable moment.  This would be the smartest thing to do, probably.

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Considering that "peace" is a dirty word for his electorate, "magically creating peace" would be more than magic - it would be political suicide.

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On the other hand, let's not forget that Livni was born into Likud - it's not such a big ideological leap.

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Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.

That would be easy to achieve.  Even if somehow she winds up in charge of some negotiations (not likely in the first place), a determined boss doesn't have to do much to ensure that the subordinate fails miserably (it would be enough to intimate to the other side, in private, that Livni is not authorized to represent anyone, but herself - and doing it without providing anyone with the smoking gun isn't hard either). Push comes to shove, a "targeted" bombing of somebody somewhere, or a few new houses on the territories, will do the trick admirably.0

In any case. That Netaniyahu would rather hang himself (and so would most of his voters), than conclude a peace agreement, is too much of a common knowledge.  Livni can't be such an idiot to even try. If she goes into this government, it is not to do miracles.

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Livni being in charge of negotiations was part of the agreement.

Yeah, missed that. Unless this is done purely for the purpose of calming down her supporters with a fake effort, she IS an idiot.

As for Netaniyahu wanting an agreement... I don't know. May be, now, that his father is no longer around, it might be different.  Up until now, judging by his entire political career, it would seem that an agreement is what he abhors and fears most (perhaps, what he did fear most was having to justify it to Daddy). Unless, of course, that "agreement" ammounts to an unconditional capitulation by the other side.