Israeli General Election 2013

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Bibi has called a snap election

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Read the older polls thread linked to in danny's sig: it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

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Bizarre, but the bizarre is always expected so, you know.

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Do you think the Peretz defection is likely to move the polls much in any direction?

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Why such divergent figures for JH-NU from the various polling outfits?

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'Left' and 'Right', of course, meaning something utterly different in Israel to most other places. Somewhat inevitably the only thing that seems directly comparable is the way internal Unionist divisons were sometimes talked about during the Troubles, and even then not exactly.

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It's part of the political culture, isn't it. Hey, even David Ben-Gurion famously left the party that he'd led for something like thirty years...

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I suppose the big difference is that Hadash is a Communist party, while Balad represents a certain sort of secular Arab Nationalism that is very different, even if the rhetoric might sometimes look similar.

Also, there's at least something of a confessional element isn't there; obviously they're a minority within a minority, but most Christians seem to vote Hadash.

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Message to Vosem: being fifteen is no excuse for being a twat.

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No. The point of archiving old threads (a thread from 2009 is not 'very old') is to archive old threads. Bumping old threads to giggle at inaccurate predictions is dickish at the best of times, and is actively obnoxious when the dickish person in question had yet to hit puberty when the thread was active.

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I think it is just about possible that the risible shenanigans of the past four years had made that fact reasonably obvious. After all, everything is obvious in hindsight. But when people make predictions, they don't do so with the benefit of hindsight; instead, they rely on assumptions, which are generally based on past patterns and known facts. This has obvious limitations. You'll understand the implications of all of this a little better when you are a little older, hopefully.

In the meanwhile, try not to be quite such a knowingly precocious child.

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Reports (lots of them) that turnout is lower in Likud strongholds.

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Twitterland is going crazy for Lapid.

Also, apparently:

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About an hour and a quarter, I think.

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I don't know; large parts of the Israeli electorate are quite astonishingly volatile. Where is Kadima now?

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Channel 2 exit poll: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Shas 12, JH-NU 12, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2

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Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

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Channel 1: Likud-Beiteinu 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, JH-NU 12, Shas 11, Meretz 7, Hatnuah 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, UAL-Ta'al 3, Balad 2, Strong Israel 2

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Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

The international media will be just fine. Never let reality affect the narrative.

True, true. Though I meant the coverage before the election.

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Assuming accurate exit polls (heh) and using an average of them, seat changes on 2009:

Likud-Beiteinu -11
Yesh Atid n/a
Labor +4
JH-NU +5
Shas +1
Meretz +4
Hatnuah n/a
UTJ +1
Hadash =
UAL-Ta'al - 1
Balad - 1
Kadima -28

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Yes, gaining seats: how completely disastrous.

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To be fair to the media, if the exit polls are correct, the pre-election polling was poor, and the media's narrative was mostly based on the polls.

Kind of, but it was still based on a fairly obvious misreading of them...

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They did pretty well this election (within their usual range of surreal-for-Israel electoral stability), so it wouldn't come as a great shock.

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The issue is that they aren't Zionist parties. Which is why no government would ever offer them cabinet posts and why they would never accept them if offered. Some things really are that basic.

Of course they aren't really any kind of united block anyway; UAL is conservative and Islamist, Hadash are commies, Balad are a Syrian fifth column (or close enough to one that you can say that without risking much absurdity).

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Results for the ten largest cities:

Jerusalem - UTJ 22%, L-B 21%, Shas 16%, HH 12%, YA 7%, Labor 7%, Meretz 4%, OL 3%
Tel Aviv - YA 21%, L-B 18%, Labor 17%, Meretz 14%, H 7%, Shas 6%, HH 4%
Haifa - L-B 26%, YA 18%, Labor 15%, H 7%, HH 6%, Meretz 5%, Hadash 5%, Shas 3%, UTJ 5%
Rishon LeZion - L-B 31%, YA 23%, Labor 14%, H 7%, HH 7%, Shas 5%, Kadima 3%
Petah Tikvah - L-B 29%, YA 18%, HH 13%, Labor 11%, Shas 7%, H 5%, UTJ 4%
Ashdod - L-B 36%, Shas 17%, UTJ 10%, YA 10%, HH 7%, Labor 6%, H 4%
Beersheba - L-B 38%, Shas 13%, HH 12%, YA 11%, Labor 8%, H 5%
Holon - L-B 31%, YA 20%, Labor 13%, Shas 11%, H 6%, HH 6%, Kadima 3%, Meretz 3%
Netanya - L-B 34%, YA 16%, Shas 11%, HH 11%, Labor 9% H 4%, UTJ 3%
Bnei Brak - UTJ 60%, Shas 25%, L-B 4%, HH 4%

Probably a load of errors there, but, you know.