Israeli General Election 2013

[Kitteh]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

Welcome to Atlas Forum, btw! I'd love to see more Israeli posters here (not that danny isn't awesome, but it's an interesting and important country). Happy that you're here

[Kitteh]

Those polls seem to show that Livni would generally be a boost for any party (Labour or a new centre party). Last I heard she was very unpopular. Has something changed?

[Kitteh]

Am Shalem: 4

What is this party?

[Kitteh]

What do you think the impact of Gaza will be on this? My guess would be that it's good for Bibi but I'm no expert.

[Kitteh]

another new poll:

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 22
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
"Arab parties": 10


Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the minimum threshold.

From government to literally nonexistent in 4 years. LOL.

Even the PCs in Canada did better. XD

[Kitteh]

Seems like Bibi has himself in a tough spot here. That 32% of Israelis who support the ceasefire are probably not ones who would ever vote Likud. Is there any chance that he loses the Likud primary now?

[Kitteh]

Kinda funny to see union support being pivotal in a primary for the largest centre-right party . But of course class voting patterns in Israel are totally different from the rest of the western world.

[Kitteh]

A poll was taken of first time voters only (people who were too young to vote in the last elections):

On the question of whether the consider themselves right/left:

49% right
20% centre leaning right
9% centre leaning left
5% left

[Kitteh]

A poll was taken of first time voters only (people who were too young to vote in the last elections):

On the question of whether the consider themselves right/left:

49% right
20% centre leaning right
9% centre leaning left
5% left

[image deleted]

Edit: On reflection, whilst completely agreeing with the emotion expressed, I can't in good conscience propagate images of such a monstrous tosser.

You're right. This better?

[Kitteh]

What is the Green Leaf-Israeli Freedom movement?

[Kitteh]

I got Meretz, followed by Labor, followed by Tzipi Livni Party. Seems about accurate.

[Kitteh]

Hey France is nice but we prefer Israel to be more like Scandinavia! nice chart, rubbish for real diagnosis but amusing

I was surprised they didn't say Sweden. That seems to be the go-to example for what every lefty party in the world wants to imitate.

[Kitteh]

All the data consolidated in a single page
http://go.ynet.co.il/long/content/xml/SearchMap_2.html

It's in Hebrew but I'm sure members will be able to translate cities into hebrew using google

This is very cool, thanks! Maps of Israeli elections are always really interesting to me, given how massively polarized everything is.

[Kitteh]

The Israelis - 2

I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

[Kitteh]

I suppose the big difference is that Hadash is a Communist party, while Balad represents a certain sort of secular Arab Nationalism that is very different, even if the rhetoric might sometimes look similar.

Yeah, as far as I understand it Balad's ideology is of the Nasserist/Ba'athist sort of Arab Nationalism which is definitely different from strict Marxism like Hadash believes in.

It also seems to me, just looking at the results, that Hadash tends to do better in the largest Arab towns (like Umm al-Fahm), while Balad tends to do better in the North, which would make some sense since that area is near Syria. I'm not sure if that's even true but just my impression from a brief look at various maps.
As for the quiz, I got right next to Balad, just a little down on the vertical axis. Similar to Meretz, which is who I'd actually vote for if I could. Labor was just barely in my circle.

[Kitteh]

Can danny or hnv (or anyone else who knows) explain the Israeli religious categories to me? Some like secular and haredi are obvious, but what do "national religious" and "traditionalist" mean?

[Kitteh]

Thanks for the explanation. Very interesting.

[Kitteh]

What would the cross-center coalition look like? Likud-Hatnuah-Yesh Atid-Kadima isn't a majority, they'd need either Labour or Shas/UTJ for a majority. Yesh Atid/Hatnuah and the Haredi parties seems like an odd match, and Labour seems unlikely to join a Bibi coalition. Idk.

[Kitteh]

If anyone wants, this person has a channel with ads from different parties subtitled in English:
http://www.youtube.com/user/IsraeliElections2013?feature=watch

Also, it's probably some Israeli thing I'm not aware of, but it looks like the girls at 1:23 in this Hatnuah ad are doing the Gangam Style dance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RGUE6yW9yjQ#t=82s
XD

[Kitteh]

This is one of the most shameless cases of the pot calling the kettle black I've seen in a while. Likud accuses Obama of trying to interfere in the Israeli election: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?ID=299709&R=R1&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

lol

[Kitteh]

Thing I noticed:

Naftali Bennett has some kind of hot wife.

In other news, Naftali Bennett looks like a naked mole rat.

[Kitteh]

Those Lapid numbers seem impossible.

[Kitteh]

Summery of exit polls

Vhannel Two exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats in 120-member parliament, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 12, Livni’s Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 61

 Channel 1 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 11, Hatenuah 7, Meretz 7, UTJ 6, Hadash 3, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Arab Democratic Party 2 ... Right-Relgious 60

 Channel 10 exit poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud 31, seats, Yesh Atid 18, Labor 17, Jewish Home 12, Shas 13, Hatenuah 6, Meretz 6, UTJ 6, Hadash 5, Ra’am-Ta’al 4, Balad 2 ... Right-Relgious 62

So from the exit polls, coalition numbers:

Likud-Lapid-JH (center-right)
Channel 2: 62
Channel 1: 62
Channel 10: 61

Likud-Shas-JH-UTJ (right-religious)
Channel 2: 61
Channel 1: 60
Channel 10: 62

Lapid-Labor-Shas-Meretz-Hatnuah (center-left-religious, or anti-Bibi)
Channel 2: 62
Channel 1: 61
Channel 10: 60

(Majority in bold)

[Kitteh]

A 62 seat coalition is not a realistic possibility. Too many worries about defections (from crazy right-wings in JH and left-wings in Yesh).

Even if it was a stable, guaranteed 62 though, Netanyahu wouldn't go for it. He has a boner for broad coalitions.

I didn't say that those would be the only parties.

Hatnuah or UTJ/Shas in addition?

[Kitteh]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?