Israeli General Election 2013

[Hnv1]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

[Hnv1]

Why thank you, I was in bed with high fever when I came across this site and gorged on it for hours. There is so much to learn about a culture or an area from it's voting pattern, indeed fascinating.

October 18th poll Haaretz/dialogue group:
If elections were held today whom would you cast your vote for (poll figure, shift from standing figure):
Likud: 29, +2; Labour: 20, +12[8]; IB (Liberman): 13, -2; Yair Lapid: 11, +11; Shas: 11, 0; Kadima: 9, -19; Jewish home: 6, -1; Haredim: 6, +1; Meretz: 5, +2; Hadash-CPI: 4, 0; both balad and ma'am remained without a shift
results of course in manadates not percentage of votes.  

A focus poll was conducted regarding whom will you vote if Livni, former head of kadima joins Labour as num. 2 (number of mandates):
Likud - 27; Labour - 24; IB - 13; Shas - 11; Lapid - 10; Kadima - 7; Meretz - 5.

A new centre party headed by Lapid-Livni-Olmert:
New party - 25; Likud - 24; Labour - 17; Shas - 14; IB - 13; Meretz - 4.

This poll demonstrates the ability of a unified centre party to win the mandates figure (like 2009) but on the overall the Right wing-religious block still remains the largest. The return of Deri'i will probably not change that and the days of a joint left-religious governments like of old days are long gone. For now the only option (very unlikely) for a centre-left victory is a reunification of centre parties, with united moderate arab factions party (who will raise voting ratios), and a creation of a coalition government with the Arabic parties. This is very unlikely due to the structured inequality in our political system and internal Aran issues.

[Hnv1]

As part of this new troika they have in Shas, Yishay is charged with government activity and there is no way he will recommend a left party with these small margins, and why should he? Bibi will be way more appeasing for their liking. If Deri'i was sole leader it would have been different. UTJ will go where the money is.

Livni was not unpopular, maybe mildly appreciated. But the left will take her as a leader over Bibi anyday. In Israeli political culture Bibi is hailed as either a genius by some or utterly despised by others. But among is political block he rules supreme which in turn turn him into the frontrunner in light of the factionous centre-left

Poor Ehud Barak loathed by both right and left wingers.

[Hnv1]

I actually think that together they'll gather less mandates then together. Shas is going to bite very hard on the safric base of the Likud, bibi shouldn't under estimate the fact that 80% of Likud voters are safric.

The centre-left block is unable to unify too many egos with too little in common

[Hnv1]

Yesterday was the leadership election for the Jewish Home, in which Naftali Bennet (23,645 votes) beat Zevulun Orlev (11,501 votes) handily

All the remaining primaries are for the list and not the leader.

remaining election dates:

November 11: Meretz primaries
November 13: Jewish Home primaries
November 25: Likud primaries
November 29: Labour primaries
December 5: Yisrael Beitenu publishes list thus completing the Likud Beitenu list.
December 6: Last day to submit the candidate lists
January 22: general election

So, the Meretz primaries are today...what happened? And what's the prognosis for all these other pre-election events?

Meretz primaries are a bit different as the voting is conducted by the meretz convention rather than the general members population.
The primaries were not for the chairman position but only for compiling the list we'll be running with to the Knesset. unlike previous primaries no spot was reserved for arabs (and one was elected 4th nonetheless), and this time equal gender representation was assured, meaning for every man on the list there will be a woman.
The list according to yesterday
1. Mk Zehava Galon -chairman
2. MK Ilan Gilon - first in primaries a more traditional socialist
3. MK Nitzan Horovitz
4. Michal Rozin - chairwoman of the aid center for the sexually assaulted
5. Issawi Farig - the Arab rep.
6. Tamar Zandberg - member of Tel Aviv city council
7. Former MK Avshalom Vilan - the kibbutzs' rep.
8. Former MK Mossi Raz

My personal vote was Gilon-Horovitz-Farig-Vilan-Zandberg

[Hnv1]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

Are they likely to get seats in the Knesset? Certainly hope not.

Passing the bar with 2 will be difficult for them espcially with the coming unification of far-right National Union and the nationalist-religious Jewish Home that will probably sweep all the ballots in their anticipated powerhouses in the west bank

They'll get the the super fringe settlers like the Hebron ones and all sort of Khanists (and let us not forget dumb 18 year olds within Israeli borders), yet all those combined will not get them in.

My greatest fear as a left voter is how many votes the buffoon lapid is going to 'rob' from Labour and MeretZ

[Hnv1]

New poll from

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 15
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Independence: 2

Which of the following would you like to see as minister of defence:

Bogie Ya'alon- 33%
Ehud Barak- 22%
Shaul Mofaz- 8%
Amir Peretz- 2
None of them- 27%
Don't know- 8% 

we're steadily climbing, from 3 to 4 and now 5 and I can see us scoring 6-7. on the other hand Labour are alienating voters lately with Shelly's actions.

now we see Israel election politics at best, Barak & Bibi brewed us a war

[Hnv1]

Results are in, and the the more left wing of the Likud MK's are out, while Feiglin is in. of the Kadima refugees, only Hanegbi made it. Of the ministers, Meridor, Eitan, Begin and Dichter are out.

One of the big stories was the large union influence on the vote, and everyone was trying to get on the lists of the unions, and specifically the aeronautics workers union, led by MK Katz, and their thousands of votes.

They are not the more left wing (part for Meridor and I would use the term moderate) as Begin can probably teach all those abrupt jokers like Regev, Dannon and the rest a lesson about what the Israeli Right is.

they are just more right is the classic term, liberal (not the American term), pro civil rights and respective toward the law and courts.

The Likud members had picked a nationalist-extremist line-up for this election, Begin senior would have probably been left out in today's Likud.

The situation 4 years from now would be interesting as Sa'ar, Ya'alon, and Lieberman would mosh up to be the next Likud leaders

[Hnv1]

Results are in, and the the more left wing of the Likud MK's are out, while Feiglin is in. of the Kadima refugees, only Hanegbi made it. Of the ministers, Meridor, Eitan, Begin and Dichter are out.

One of the big stories was the large union influence on the vote, and everyone was trying to get on the lists of the unions, and specifically the aeronautics workers union, led by MK Katz, and their thousands of votes.

They are not the more left wing (part for Meridor and I would use the term moderate) as Begin can probably teach all those abrupt jokers like Regev, Dannon and the rest a lesson about what the Israeli Right is.

they are just more right is the classic term, liberal (not the American term), pro civil rights and respective toward the law and courts.

The Likud members had picked a nationalist-extremist line-up for this election, Begin senior would have probably been left out in today's Likud.

The situation 4 years from now would be interesting as Sa'ar, Ya'alon, and Lieberman would mosh up to be the next Likud leaders

I use the term "more left wing" as a relative term, in the same way Zehava Gal-on is to the right of Dov Khenin, and Naftali Bennet is to the left of Michael Ben-Ari.

As for Benny Begin, he has definitely changed to the left, the Begin of the 90's would not have agreed to the settlement freeze. Begin was expected to represent the a strong right winger and supporter of the settlements in when he was elected in 2009 in a high spot. He didn't deliver on that, and was voted out

If by failing to deliver you mean not opposing a peremptory verdict by the supreme court then anyone who advocated ignoring it is abolishing democracy in the way we know it, and that Begin can not agree to.

The Begin of the 90s same as the Begin of present days would both oppose a construction freeze directed by the government, a court rulling is quite different.

Labour primaries tomorrow, their 8 MKs will probably all get in but the question is who of the newcommers is going to stay outside (estimating labour will not pass the 22 MK bar)

[Hnv1]

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 18
Shas: 10
JH-NU: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
The Movement: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3

Likud carries on with a solid lead (yet not as strong it would have expected), Livni robbs Labour and Yesh Atid but for now it seems Meretz solidify around 5-6 mandates. Eldad for now passes the bar but I'm pretty sure that on election most of his now supporters would vote JH

[Hnv1]

Results are in from the Labour primaries:
1. Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich
2. MK Herzog - son of former President Herzog
3. MK Amir Peretz - former chairman and MoD
4. MK Eitan Cabel
5. Meirav Michaeli - journalist and the new left marker for the party, against Shelly's will
6. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer - former chairman, MoD, party veteran and Brig. Gen. in the IDF
7. Hilik Bar- Labour CEO
8. Omer Bar-Lev - Son of former IDF CoGS, COL in reserve and former CO Sayeret Matkal
9. Stav Shafir - the youngster from the leaders of July 2011 protests
10. MK Avishay Braverman
11. Arel Margalit
12. Itzik Shmoli - head of the Student's Union and one of the leaders of July 2011
13. Miki Rosenthal - journalist, famous for his anti-corruption anti-centralization positions
14. Michal Biran - head of the Young Labour
15. MK Nahman Shai - defected from Kadima
16. Moshe Mizrachi - Maj. Gen. of the Israeli Police, anti-corruption
17. Danny Atar
18. MK Raleb Majadele - minorities rep.
19. Nadia Hilo
20. MK Nino Abesadze - defected from Kadima
21. Prof. Yossi Yona - 'spiritual leader' for the July 2011 protests
22. MK Daniel Ben-Simon - rather disappointing
23-30 nothing of much interest and by most positive polls improbable anyway

Personally I'm not a part from Labour for years now but this is a great list (despite Shelly's attempts to put in her people) fairly moderate but solid. n.b. Shelly's attempt to exclude Michaeli failed but Yariv Offenheimer the head of Peace Now did not make it in; Peretz's recovery is impressive and generally speaking Labour voters can take pride in their list compared to what Likud would be fielding

[Hnv1]

Amir Peretz in a shock move decides to leave Labour and join Livni, Peretz was leader of the more left section of the party (same as Mitzna who left a week ago) his decision to join Livni was Shelly's refusal to discuss the conflict and the occupation in her campaign while deserting the Labour's traditional role.

good luck to him would love to have seen him with other good MKs from Labour join Meretz
but that is probably too much to ask

[Hnv1]

Due to the polarization and demographics in Israel, Peretz is probably one the very few individuals on the left that are able to swing so safric votes from the right. but again, with some many parties there is simply no way Likud are not going to win.

I believe there is a need for a strong opposition that will able to inherit the next Likud government which I predict is going to crumble before 2017

[Hnv1]

Do you think the Peretz defection is likely to move the polls much in any direction?

slightly, he may gain some votes for Livni from the right side of the map but Labour in general will be untouched. Yesh Atid's decadence is a beauty to behold, I sure hope that on January 23 he will be with 5 or less MKs in and a disgraceful end to his political career.

[Hnv1]

Hey France is nice but we prefer Israel to be more like Scandinavia! nice chart, rubbish for real diagnosis but amusing

[Hnv1]

It's interesting that Livni is viewed as a likelier winner than Yachimovich...I really think with a good campaign Hatnuah could place second, ahead of Labour.

Currently, Labour are getting a lot of stick from both labour memebers and general Left voters for Shelly's refusal to discuss the Palestinian issue (Labour are declining in polls).
Sadly, Livni is ripping 2 mandates of 'Security-Leftists' from Meretz (like in 2009), that's a shame as initial polls predicted Meretz with around 5-6 mandates 

[Hnv1]

All the data consolidated in a single page
http://go.ynet.co.il/long/content/xml/SearchMap_2.html

It's in Hebrew but I'm sure members will be able to translate cities into hebrew using google

[Hnv1]

The plot thickens, Israeli Attorney General notified Liberman of his intention to trial him on the Belarus ambassador scandal, though he neglected to do so regarding the front organizations affair.

Now I'm sure his legal advisers and lobbyists are trying to work out a magic formula that will enable him to run in this elections 

[Hnv1]

New poll from Ynet http://www.ynet.co.il/PicServer3/2012/12/14/4335835/untitled.jpg

Likud - 35
Labour - 19
Shas - 11
JH - 11
Livni - 11
Lapid - 8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 4
Hadas- 4
Ra'am-Ta'al - 4
Balad - 3
Otzma LeIsrael - 2
The Israelis - 2
Kadima\Am Shalem - under bar

[Hnv1]

Big news with Lieberman resigning after the decision to indict him on corruption related  charges.

The Israelis - 2

I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

A new Russian immigrant party.

Lieberman in no way specified that he is not running in this election, he simply quit his job as MoFA

[Hnv1]

Polling must show the "left" as a brand as being toxic, as only Meretz and Hadash call themselves that. Shelly gave an interview today in which she said that "Labour is not a left wing party and never has been a left wing party... Yitzhak Rabin was a hawk in his views." Livni and Lapid call their parties centre.

That's her bad campaign director speaking. If she honestly believes she can sway Likud voters that way she is gravely mistaken. The Maroccans in Kiryat Shmone aren't going to vote for an Ashkenaz female-led Labour because she's advocating social-democracy. To top that her own constituency hasn't that many reservations regarding their tag as leftists (as shown in Labour's lineup for this election). This might actually cost her votes to Meretz and for some reason Livni

[Hnv1]

There seems to be a ridiculous amount of party switching and floor-crossing in Israel - more than in just about any other country i know of. I usually associate constant party switching with newly democratized countries in the developing world where there is no mature political culture and parties tend to be just temporary "flags of convenience"

Isn't there any loyalty in Israel? Doesn't anyone believe in anything?

Well the exact opposite happened in Israel, as the state was formed by hard ideologists but with the years the ideologies died 

A funny event today in the knesset. Because of the resignation of Amir Peretz from the knesset, the next person on Labour's list was sworn in. This person happenned to be Yoram Marziano, a Labour MK until 2009. But in a twist, Marziano used his swearing in to announce his resignation from the party and support for Bibi in the elections.

Marziano was fairly hated in Labour, and he wants to be Lod's mayor so he needs Bibi

[Hnv1]

New poll from Ma'ariv:



Religion: secular 54%, traditionalist 27%, national religious 11%, national haredi or haredi 8%.

I have a hard time accepting that 54% of right wing voters are secular (unless this figure is overwhelmingly Russian) or at least this is not secular as you refer to the secular sector in Israel.
Secular sector in Israel is estimated at 2.5 millions which translates almost completely to the 45 MKs figure by centre-left parties. The poll's demographic cut would be extremely different if it was conducted with Likud voters only (which by my experience are overwhelmingly traditionalists to religious)

[Hnv1]

Interesting chart for those who are not so familiar with Israeli parties (like me):

It's interesting but I wouldn't really agree with everything there.

For instance, I don't see why The Movement (Hatnuah) is more secular than Yesh Atid or more right wing than Labour (Peretz defected from Labour to The Movement because Labour wasn't talking enough about peace). Also the entire campaign of Am Shalem is attacking Shas (and even Likud) from a more "secular" standpoint. Also The Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) is definitely more right wing than Likud, certainly as long as Bibi is in charge, even though some of the Likud's members are similar to the Jewish home's opinions.

Balad is right wing (Arab right wing...Baathism) and secular, they promote Pan-Arabism whilst HADASH (or more accurately the ICP in it) should be in the bottom left corner

[Hnv1]

Balad and Hadash have identical or very close positions on nearly all issues. For what reasons Arab voters support Hadash? Two parties have the same ideology (socialism, secularism) but Balad is obviously preferable for Arabs due to its more clear pro-Palestinian stance.

I'm pretty sure more Hadash voters are Jews than Muslims, though they're the only party with significant cross-community support, thus being labeled as an Arab party. They are also the party for those Muslims who see cooperation with (pro-peace) Jews as essential--basically, less radical, for voters who don't harbor a real hatred of Israel as a concept.

Anyway, I landed about equidistant from Ta'al, Labor and Hatnu'a.

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.

you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.

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From many years of living by Druze and getting to know them, the Druze vote is by far the least ideologically driven I've seen. They mainly vote for whoever reward them money-wise