This is ridiculous

[Antonio the Sixth]

So a decent debate performance for Romney and a mediocre one for Obama turned the race upside down. A 7-point shift, at least. More than any other event in the whole campaign.

Anyone else objectively think it's just plain stupid?

(yeah, troll thread, I know)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah, but it was obvious the media was dying to start a new narrative. The "Obama's Got It Locked Up" thing was getting stale.

[Oakvale]

It's more the masturbatory media narrative than the actual debate.

[opebo]

So a decent debate performance for Romney and a mediocre one for Obama turned the race upside down. A 7-point shift, at least. More than any other event in the whole campaign.

Anyone else objectively think it's just plain stupid?

No, I've been explaining this for years - racism rules america.

[King]

As the forum's representative of the moderate swing voter, do not fear.  Obama will still win.  Romney showed to be less spineless because of the debate and I don't find him as repulsive so I won't care as much if he won, but at the same time, I still don't dislike Obama.

His approval rating is still net positive.  In the end, we won't vote against him.

[後援会]

As the forum's representative of the moderate swing voter, do not fear.

You're about as representative as I am. Not very.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's more the masturbatory media narrative than the actual debate.

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance? Because I can't otherwise explain a 7-point shift in a race that has otherwise been unmovable all along.

[tmthforu94]

The reaction Democrats have had on here the past few days, especially those who attempt to dismiss every single poll that has Romney doing well, is just priceless.

At this point, gun to my head, I'd still say Obama would win, and I'm about as big of a Romney supporter so you can be.

[opebo]

It's more the masturbatory media narrative than the actual debate.

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance? Because I can't otherwise explain a 7-point shift in a race that has otherwise been unmovable all along.

The explanation is white swing voters desperately wanted to shift, and were looking for a reason, any reason. Or to put it another way, they were looking for any reason to excuse Romney's obvious negatives (class enemy, etc).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The reaction Democrats have had on here the past few days, especially those who attempt to dismiss every single poll that has Romney doing well, is just priceless.

Too bad you completely missed my point.


Opebo, I won't convince you to think otherwise, but allow me to disagree. While racism certainly plays a role in the campaign, as always, I highly doubt it has anything to do with short term shifts like that.

[AmericanNation]

It's more the masturbatory media narrative than the actual debate.

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance? Because I can't otherwise explain a 7-point shift in a race that has otherwise been unmovable all along.

The explanation is white swing voters desperately wanted to shift, and were looking for a reason, any reason. Or to put it another way, they were looking for any reason to excuse Romney's obvious negatives (class enemy, etc).

Or this is the first unfiltered look the American public has had at Romney since he became the nominee and they liked what they saw.  
The Obama Campaign had a $100 million dollar free run at knocking Romney down and all they have left is "Lying liar who lies... what? why would you ask me for an example" and "Big Bird".  
The media will do all they can to prop up Obama, but their are limits.  They can't risk the complete destruction of their credibility.  Amazing what a little fair coverage will do to perception.  These shifts were predictable and many saw them coming.  If anything the question is:
How did Obama stay propped up this long?
not,
This is ridiculous, what happened?      

[opebo]

The media will do all they can to prop up Obama.

To the contrary!

[Insula Dei]

If Romney wins this thing on the strength of that debate, I think the ability to always be able to resort to US-bashing when a conversation is getting difficult would sort of balance out the absolute awfulness of having a Romney administration in Washington.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think EVERYBODY needs to get a f***ing grip!

Now, I, as much as the next Obama supporter, was surprised by his debate performance... but it seems I was in a minority that expected Romney to win and get a bounce. But the bounce was bigger, and considering the nature of multi-day polling, we've got only some idea as to the extent of it that remains.

I'll admit picking on some of those polls where Romney is doing well, not because he's doing well, but because a lot of the underlying numbers don't make sense, or suggest the prevailing background narrative that Romney surged on Thurs and especially Friday, but started to tail-off towards the previous status quo over the weekend. Having said that, I also picked on polls where Obama was inexpliably leading or the numbers behind them made little sense.

That being said, there have been good polls for Romney and I expect we'll continue to see them, although I honestly expect them shift towards Obama after the second debate.

Two things I'd say...

* Democrats have got to stop cannibalising someone because they screwed up, so many have a strong "OMG... they'll steal it again, I know it" mentality that it doesn't take much to send him into a catatonic state... how do you think the forum Republicans have managed to have to deal with the last two months of the Romney campaign? This is all fixable, but heads need to be pulled out of collective arses... I like MSNBC (well some of them), but their reaction was just, well much of the media, hysterical. The Conservative whining about media is kind of moot... they smelled a story and went for it...

* If Obama's approval rating stays high through this period, then my feeling this the polls will move back to him, but I expect the margin to not shift much beyond +2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember having similar feelings during the 2010 General Election. Of course I also remember thinking - though only after taking the trouble to go through the Nuffield studies for 1974, 1983 and 1987 - that the madness was probably partly the result of incompetence on behalf of the polling companies, and so it proved.

[afleitch]

I remember having similar feelings during the 2010 General Election. Of course I also remember thinking - though only after taking the trouble to go through the Nuffield studies for 1974, 1983 and 1987 - that the madness was probably partly the result of incompetence on behalf of the polling companies, and so it proved.

That was a fun time. In the end the election result wasn't too different from where things stood at the start of the campaign. We are used to 'look I'm on the telly!' conference bounces that screw October polling, cause the sky to fall in and then things settle by the end of the season.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance?

Yes. The entire aftermath of the debate was created by The Media with the intent of electing Romney. That is a fact.

[J. J.]

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance?

Yes. The entire aftermath of the debate was created by The Media with the intent of electing Romney. That is a fact.

The people that watched the debate disagree.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is the media really talking all the day about Romney's amazing energy, charisma and presidentiality, while rambling on Obama's utter ineptitude, emptiness and arrogance?

Yes. The entire aftermath of the debate was created by The Media with the intent of electing Romney. That is a fact.

The people that watched the debate disagree.

Uh, I watched the debate.

[cinyc]

So a decent debate performance for Romney and a mediocre one for Obama turned the race upside down. A 7-point shift, at least. More than any other event in the whole campaign.

Anyone else objectively think it's just plain stupid?

(yeah, troll thread, I know)

What is so ridiculous about a debate watched by 70 million Americans leading to a shift in the polls?  A completely staged convention watched by less than half of that lead to a shift in the polls, too.  If a Bill Clinton speech can move numbers, why shouldn't a good debate performance by Romney and poor performance by Obama do so, too?  For many, this was their first real opportunity to see the unfiltered Romney.  Most people don't bother to watch the snoozefest conventions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That was a fun time. In the end the election result wasn't too different from where things stood at the start of the campaign. We are used to 'look I'm on the telly!' conference bounces that screw October polling, cause the sky to fall in and then things settle by the end of the season.

And, of course, 1974, 1983 and 1987 all saw Centre surges that probably didn't actually happen. Which makes me think: what's the usual pattern for post-debate polls in the U.S? Given that usual patterns are usual for a reason.

[Franzl]

Yes.

[Torie]

Ah, I am tempted to comment, but am unable to think of a way to phrase it without seeming hackish. Let us just say everybody got to know both candidates a bit better. Knowledge is power!  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That expression always reminds me of the coat of arms of the former Metropolitan Borough of Shoreditch:

[Reaganfan]

Ah, I am tempted to comment, but am unable to think of a way to phrase it without seeming hackish. Let us just say everybody got to know both candidates a bit better. Knowledge is power!  

I think I've literally made 2 posts or so since the debate on this forum. I try not to gloat, but it's looking really good for Governor Romney.

I do enjoy watching democrats squirm like a head cut off a chicken.