So, Smith >>>> Santorum.
It isn't 2006 anymore and Casey has run a lackluster campaign/has been ineffective. Santorum would probably be running as well as Smith (except Smith isn't some well known polarizing figure even though Casey's campaign has tried to make him into that type).
Casey is basically not campaigning. Philadelphia TV has as many Bob Menendez ads as Casey ads, and Bob Menendez doesn't even really need South Jersey.
Even more hilariously, the NJ Republican nominee somehow has a good amount of money and has run several different ads. I've seen him more than anyone else.