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| | |-+  What will and should happen with an electoral college tie?
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Question: What will and should happen with a 269-269 tie in the electoral college?
If Obama wins popular vote, House should AND will select him.   -1 (2.4%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD and WILL NOT select him   -25 (59.5%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT but WILL select him   -2 (4.8%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT and WILL NOT select him   -14 (33.3%)
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: What will and should happen with an electoral college tie?  (Read 816 times)
Jacob
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« on: October 11, 2012, 10:42:18 am »
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I know that this outcome is virtually impossible, because states move in waves. The precise state breakdown to give each candidate 269 is hard to imagine, due to the fact that states vote in waves. A candidate who wins a less Democratic leaning state is almost certain to win states that lean more in his favor. But let's discuss.

Give Obama NH, OH and WI. Give Romney FL, NC, VA, IA, NV and CO. 269-269 tie in electoral college. This throws the election into the new House of Representatives, where Republicans control the show and could have majorities in 26 states after the election. For purposes of this thread/poll, ignore the possibility that neither party has a majority of state delegations, because that gets too messy. Assume Republicans control at least 26, because otherwise the most likely outcome is a President Biden until a midterm election can be held. And don't tell me this wont happen. Assume it will be selecting between Romney and Obama and no compromise candidate emerges.

So we know that the House will select Romney if he wins the popular vote, which is only fair. In the case of an electoral college tie, the tie should go to the popular vote winner. Here's the money question: assume Obama wins the popular vote in a 269-269 tie. Would the Republicans put party above country and select Romney, knowing the unrest this would create? Should they?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 10:46:35 am by Jacob »Logged

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Jacob
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2012, 10:55:54 am »
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You guys who believe that the House should not select Obama... have the guts to state your reasons publicly in this thread.
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2012, 11:00:43 am »
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I suspect the white majority will find a way for the white candidate to win. 
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Sol
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2012, 11:04:15 am »
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The house will elect Romney.
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Jacob
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2012, 11:26:09 am »
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I suspect the white majority will find a way for the white candidate to win. 

Stop trolling. You're a Republican and a Romney supporter so the only reason you post this bilge is to paint a caricature of a black Democrat who sees racism behind everything. If the presidential candidates were Hillary and Cain, do you think the white majority in the Republican house would find a way for the white candidate to win?

Come off it, it's disgusting. Your posts joking about racism being behind potential decisions/outcomes we part of a long Republican trend. Limbaugh jokes in this way all the time, and the purpose of it is to desensitize Americans to real racism when and where it occurs. It's the boy crying wolf, except the wolf is jocularly calling it on himself.

It isn't funny. When Republicans wonder why they can't manage more than 11% of the black vote, posts like yours should be part of their introspective analysis.
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2012, 11:28:35 am »
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There's no way the House will select Obama. Come on...
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2012, 11:44:02 am »
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Of course the house will elect Romney. Apart from everything else, any Republican who dares to vote for Obama, will be an easy target for a primary challenger. The only possible exceptions are some Republicans voting for Obama because he won their districts but I doubt that even that would be widespread.
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angus
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2012, 11:58:48 am »
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I don't really find any of your options that fit, so I didn't vote, but here's what I think should happen.  Each delegation gets one vote, and each delegation should vote for the candidate winning a plurality in their home state.  This should be the case regardless of whether the majority of the state delegation is Republican or Democrat.  If they do it this way, here's my prediction:

Obama 25
Romney 25

I'm basing this on the fact that in 25 states Romney is polling ahead, and in 25 states Obama is polling ahead.  Does DC's delegation get a vote?  If so, then Obama wins.  I don't think it does, though.

By the way, the actual Electors meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December (December 17, 2012) to cast their votes.  Only about half the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner, so just because the networks call it 269-269 on election night doesn't really mean that it will be a tie.  Lots of deals can be struck in the six weeks between popular election day and the day the Electors meet to choose a president.

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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2012, 12:03:15 pm »
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Option 2.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2012, 12:05:14 pm »
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There's no way the House will select Obama. Come on...
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2012, 12:11:49 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2012, 12:14:43 pm »
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There's no way the House will select Obama. Come on...

Most speculative pieces I've read on this subject don't predict that what I said should happen will actually happen.  The assumption has been that each delegation would go with a delegation party majority, rather than a statewide plurality.  If this assumption is true, then the House might pick Obama, right?  We can't predict what the congress that is sworn in on January 3 will look like, but there's a good chance that the Democrats will control 26 delegations.  I hope they don't do it that way, not because of any particular candidate or party, but I think that a delegation should respect the wishes of its constituents.  That would lead to the 25 to 25 tie.  That is not necessarily a problem, because the Senate would be meeting on January 6 to pick a Vice President, and that Vice President would be sworn in on January 20 as President if the House cannot pick a President in the 2-week period leading up to January 20.  Now, it's possible that we could have a 50-50 vote in the Senate.  That would be interesting.  I'd love to see it.  A 25-25 House and a 50-50 senate.  Imagine all the threads and bickering and excitement that would ensue in this forum.  Especially when President Boehner is sworn in on January 20.  Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2012, 12:35:23 pm »
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The House is voting per state delegations, essentially representing the states. Therefore, the House should most definitely not select Obama.
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2012, 12:38:09 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.

It wouldn't, because the House will be divided in state delegations and then each state delegation will have one voice. The State delegations should follow the popular vote decision in their states.
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angus
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2012, 12:42:53 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.

It wouldn't, because the House will be divided in state delegations and then each state delegation will have one voice. The State delegations should follow the popular vote decision in their states.


They should, but almost all the paid talking heads say that instead they'll go with the delegation majority.  Of course, paid talking heads make lots of predictions that don't come true.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2012, 12:51:46 pm »
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If the Dems keep the Senate, it's plausible that there could be some sort of absurd Romney-Biden Administration in this situation.
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2012, 12:57:10 pm »
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This is a reason why the Constitution should be amended to revoke Congress's power to break an Electoral College deadlock.

Congress needs to learn to shut its yip when we say so.
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Jacob
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2012, 12:57:49 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.

It wouldn't, because the House will be divided in state delegations and then each state delegation will have one voice. The State delegations should follow the popular vote decision in their states.


Fine. Give Obama all swing states except for FL and NC. Give those to Romney. Obama wins 26 states to Romney's 24. What then? You know the Republicans would still deny Obama a second term.
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2012, 12:59:40 pm »
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If the Dems keep the Senate, it's plausible that there could be some sort of absurd Romney-Biden Administration in this situation.
The worst gridlock ever.
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2012, 01:01:48 pm »
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Assuming that the vote is strictly party-line, how would this end up looking?

Using Larry Sabato's ratings for House races (probably not the best, but the most amenable for a quick analysis of this sort of thing as he actually lists the safe districts):

Romney appears to have 24 states in the bag already, to Obama's 11:



Some of these "tossups" lean heavily in one direction, however.  Kristi Noem (SD-AL) won narrowly over Herseth-Sandlin last time around, but is not facing her again and has the advantage of incumbency; other sites list Noem as safe.  If we give SD to Romney, that puts him at 25 states, one state away from victory.  North Dakota's and Montana's current Congressmen are both retiring to run for Senate, but their seats are likely to remain Republican.  If just one of them remains Republican, Romney has 26 states and the Presidency.

Other possible Romney states from the remaining `tossups' are Michigan (they would need to retain MI-3 and MI-11) and Wisconsin (they would need to retain WI-7 and WI-8), probably followed by New Hampshire (where they would have to win both seats).

All in all, the House is basically Safe Romney assuming no defections.  Considering the only strongly Obama state in the above is Pennsylvania (which Romney doesn't even need should the Republicans hold onto Montana and the Dakotas), such a possibility seems remote.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 01:04:03 pm by Erc »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2012, 01:10:08 pm »
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The House will boot obama. Doh.
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Maxy
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2012, 01:21:46 pm »
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President Romney and Vice President Joe Biden
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2012, 01:23:02 pm »
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President Romney and Vice President Joe Biden

I smell a sitcom! 

In all seriousness, yeah, this would be the result of an electoral college tie.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 01:29:20 pm by Shadowlord88 »Logged
Erc
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2012, 01:38:52 pm »
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Partially-related and extremely far-fetched Constitutional question:

What if there is no majority in the Electoral College for either President or Vice-President, and a single person happens to be eligible for election by the Senate to the Vice-Presidency and by the House to the Presidency?

I'm imagining a rather outlandish scenario where there is a 269-269 tie and one elector decides to go faithless and flips the ticket, voting Ryan/Romney instead of Romney/Ryan.  The Senate then has to decide between Ryan and Biden (the two top-placing candidates), while the House has to decide between Obama, Romney, and Ryan (the three top-placing candidates).  Is there some ludicrous scenario in which Ryan gets elected both Vice-President (by a Republican Senate, say) and President (there is a deadlocked House that somehow finds Ryan preferable to either candidate, or is deadlocked for so long Vice-President elect Ryan serves as Acting President and the House eventually decides to formalize the arrangement by electing him President)?
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Andrew1
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2012, 02:07:20 pm »
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The Republicans have a built in advantage in the House, largely due to more states being gerrymandered in their favour than the Democrats.

In the incoming House, the Republicans will control probably 28-30 state delegations. No one would dare not vote the party line, so a 269-269 tie is a certain Romney win.

For the House to elect Obama would require some very unlikely Democratic pickups, the sort of wave that would see them retake the House and there's no evidence of that.
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