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| | |-+  What will and should happen with an electoral college tie?
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Poll
Question: What will and should happen with a 269-269 tie in the electoral college?
If Obama wins popular vote, House should AND will select him.   -1 (2.4%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD and WILL NOT select him   -25 (59.5%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT but WILL select him   -2 (4.8%)
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT and WILL NOT select him   -14 (33.3%)
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: What will and should happen with an electoral college tie?  (Read 811 times)
Ljube
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« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2012, 02:13:48 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.

It wouldn't, because the House will be divided in state delegations and then each state delegation will have one voice. The State delegations should follow the popular vote decision in their states.


Fine. Give Obama all swing states except for FL and NC. Give those to Romney. Obama wins 26 states to Romney's 24. What then? You know the Republicans would still deny Obama a second term.

Obama wins the electoral college then.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2012, 02:16:11 pm »
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Even if just the GOP lead house delegations from states won by Romney voted for Romney he would still  win. Those folks can easily justify their votes by saying they are voting along with the will of their states (and likely their CDs).
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emailking
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« Reply #27 on: October 11, 2012, 02:47:03 pm »
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You guys who believe that the House should not select Obama... have the guts to state your reasons publicly in this thread.
Because the popular vote is irrelevant. If the election was about the popular vote then the campaign would be different and we don't know who would win it. It's an interesting but irrevlevant piece of data. The House should select who they think will be the best President. And I'm assuming a majority of delegations will think Romeny fits that bill, if a majority are Republican.
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Jacob
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« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2012, 05:01:01 pm »
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Option 2 because while the House won't select him, it would be the democratically proper thing to do.

It wouldn't, because the House will be divided in state delegations and then each state delegation will have one voice. The State delegations should follow the popular vote decision in their states.



Fine. Give Obama all swing states except for FL and NC. Give those to Romney. Obama wins 26 states to Romney's 24. What then? You know the Republicans would still deny Obama a second term.

Obama wins the electoral college then.

sh**t, you're right. Oops, miscounted.
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« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2012, 05:28:50 pm »
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The House would vote largely along strict party lines. That being said, many representatives would be under a lot of pressure from their constituents to vote the way their district or their state voted. Of course you would also hear the argument that the House should respect the national popular vote. Some Congressmen from swing states/ districts would certainly take their "country first" points even in the face of threats from the party leadership. Still, these defections would probably not be enough to change the result. Republicans will almost definitely still control the House AND a majority of state delegations. Yes, Democrats will gain some seats. It would take a while to figure out the exact configuration of seats D's would have to win to control a majority of state delegations or produce a deadlocked result, but I can't imagine its a very likely outcome. Also, all the plausible electoral college tie scenarios involve Romney winning more states, so even if every representative voted the way their state voted, Romney would still win.

If Romney won the popular vote, then this would be seen as a clean victory. If however Obama won the popular vote but House Republicans chose Romney, well there's just no way to disguise that as anything other than the blatant partisan power grab that much of the public would view it as. Sure, Boehner could give an effective speech on the House floor about congress doing its constitutional duty and explain why the popular vote is irrelevant in this scenario. That may be a defensible position, but consider this: In the two months between the election and the House vote, everyone's going to see a million variations of the following poll.
"What do you think your congressman should base their vote for President on: 1. Their party 2. The way their state voted, 3. The way their district voted, or 4. The national popular vote?"
What do you think the numbers would be on that question?

Republicans might need to cut some sort of deal to save face with the public. Maybe they would agree to hold a vote an an amendment abolishing the electoral college. Or maybe they'd agree to concede the Vice Presidency to Biden.

Which brings us to the Senate. Most projections now show Democrats narrowly holding the Senate. So we could potentially get a Romney/ Biden administration. But assuming the House has already elected Romney, how much popular support would there be for the idea of electing a Democratic VP just to screw with the President for the next four years. Again, this would probably depend on who won the popular vote. What if Romney won the popular vote? Depending on how close the Senate is, it might just take one or two Democrats playing the "Country first" card and defecting (*cough* Joe Manchin*cough*)to swing the vote to Ryan.

There's also room for shenanigans at other points in the process. For example, all it would take is one faithless Republican elector to throw Ron Paul's name into the ring.     
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Harry
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« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2012, 06:13:48 pm »
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Surely the party leaders would come together and make a compromise, something like a Romney/Biden administration, but Romney appoints several Democrats to the cabinet and agrees not to repeal Obamacare.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2012, 12:46:55 am »

Surely the party leaders would come together and make a compromise, something like a Romney/Biden administration, but Romney appoints several Democrats to the cabinet and agrees not to repeal Obamacare.

Why would the GOP compromise, if they have the numbers in the House to take the presidency?  They'd elect Romney in the House, and (if the Dems still have a majority in the Senate) the Senate would make Biden VP.  Biden would of course be shut out of Cabinet meetings and the like, and would spend all his days presiding over the Senate, and acting as the 101st Senator.

The aftermath of the election and the leadup to both the electoral vote and the vote in the House would be a huge media circus, akin to the 2000 election fiasco.  There would probably be some faithless electors (some Ron Paul ninjas, perhaps), but none who would crossover and vote for the other party, which means that there'd still be no EC majority, and it would still go to Romney in the House.  The National Popular Vote compact would gain some traction, and there'd be a renewed push to pass it in state legislatures around the country, but GOP opposition to it would harden.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2012, 06:55:17 am »
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The Constitution was set up with the understanding states should vote in their citizens interest, if a tie then states should vote along their state results.   I would expect Romney to win about 30 states, so the House, voting by state, would and should elect him, regardless of the popular vote.
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2012, 10:46:51 am »
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With 24 states in the page, three ties would, also, be decisive. Assuming the Democrats take MT-AL, ND-AL, and SD-AL, ties are still possible in NV, MN, IA, WI, NH, WA and MI.

Assuming that the vote is strictly party-line, how would this end up looking?

Using Larry Sabato's ratings for House races (probably not the best, but the most amenable for a quick analysis of this sort of thing as he actually lists the safe districts):

Romney appears to have 24 states in the bag already, to Obama's 11:



Some of these "tossups" lean heavily in one direction, however.  Kristi Noem (SD-AL) won narrowly over Herseth-Sandlin last time around, but is not facing her again and has the advantage of incumbency; other sites list Noem as safe.  If we give SD to Romney, that puts him at 25 states, one state away from victory.  North Dakota's and Montana's current Congressmen are both retiring to run for Senate, but their seats are likely to remain Republican.  If just one of them remains Republican, Romney has 26 states and the Presidency.

Other possible Romney states from the remaining `tossups' are Michigan (they would need to retain MI-3 and MI-11) and Wisconsin (they would need to retain WI-7 and WI-8), probably followed by New Hampshire (where they would have to win both seats).

All in all, the House is basically Safe Romney assuming no defections.  Considering the only strongly Obama state in the above is Pennsylvania (which Romney doesn't even need should the Republicans hold onto Montana and the Dakotas), such a possibility seems remote.
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