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Author Topic: Swing States  (Read 1128 times)
Sol
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« on: October 11, 2012, 11:48:43 am »
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So, what states do you think will be up in the air in 2016?

Here's my prediction with an Obama win:



And a Romney win:

Clearly, there'll need to be refinement for both of these.
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2012, 12:01:55 pm »
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My guess right now, obviously subject to change.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 12:05:53 pm by Shadowlord88 »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2012, 02:02:23 pm »
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2012, 02:07:59 pm »
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Quote from: 5280 on October 11, 2012, 02:02:23 pm

This.
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm »
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Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.



With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2012, 02:42:49 pm »
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 pm »
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Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2012, 04:16:49 pm »
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Depends on the nominees.
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 pm »
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Quote from: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 pm
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2012, 04:25:49 pm »
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Quote from: SoIA morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:16:49 pm
Depends on the nominees.

True.  Some states might be turned off by certain nominees and ideologues.  
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm »
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The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.



With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.



With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2012, 06:23:20 pm »
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Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Quote from: SoIA morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 pm
Quote from: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 pm
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2012, 07:09:32 pm »
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Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 06:23:20 pm
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Quote from: SoIA morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 pm
Quote from: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 pm
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.
How does Nevada tilt Democrat?  They've elected all Republican governors since 1998.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 08:24:34 am by Oldiesfreak1854 »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2012, 07:23:46 pm »
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Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm
The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02).
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morgieb
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2012, 09:36:52 pm »
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Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 07:09:32 pm
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 06:23:20 pm
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Quote from: SoIA morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 pm
Quote from: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 pm
Quote from: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 pm
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.
How does Nevada tilt Democrat?  They haven't elected all Republican governors since 1998.
We're talking Presidential level. It voted Obama by 13 in 2008.

It's true at a lower level however that it is a key swing state, if not leaning R.
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GM Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2012, 01:09:36 am »
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2012, 08:25:45 am »
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Quote from: IDS Legislator SJoyceFla on October 11, 2012, 07:23:46 pm
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 pm
The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02).
I didn't say they were.  I said they were leaners that have been swing states in the past.  I like to call them "semi-swing states."
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2012, 09:15:36 am »
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I think these states depending on the candidates and the result of this election could swing either way.
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2012, 03:33:48 am »
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It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2012, 11:49:25 am »
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Quote from: ModerateCoward on October 13, 2012, 03:33:48 am

It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.

Texas?  I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024.

For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now:



However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less.
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ModerateCoward
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2012, 08:11:57 pm »
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Quote from: opebo on October 13, 2012, 11:49:25 am
Quote from: ModerateCoward on October 13, 2012, 03:33:48 am

It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.

Texas?  I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024.

For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now:



However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less.
The demographics and intensifying shift in the southwest and intensifying racism among white working class will dictate next election. Here's a corrected map btw:
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2012, 09:14:02 pm »
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Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican?
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2012, 11:25:30 pm »
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Same states as we have now.
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2012, 12:24:13 am »
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Quote from: BaldEagle1991 on October 13, 2012, 09:14:02 pm
Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican?
Ignore the margins. It's the same as 08.
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2012, 12:37:13 am »
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I love how the Democrats love to bring the word 'racist' in every topic when it comes to immigration policies. You know being an illegal is breaking the law right?
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