PA-12: Rothfus in the lead
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  PA-12: Rothfus in the lead
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Author Topic: PA-12: Rothfus in the lead  (Read 1338 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 06, 2012, 09:03:59 AM »
« edited: October 06, 2012, 09:10:17 AM by krazen1211 »

http://triblive.com/home/2718170-74/critz-rothfus-poll-percent-campaign-district-republican-keith-race-voters#axzz28WVxDlHp

Rothfus 45
Critz 43


Romney 55
Obama 40


Great news!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 09:33:46 AM »

Susquehanna is an (R) pollster.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 09:34:30 AM »

The Romney result there will really help Rothfus but this one should be very close. Clinton's visit to the area the other day probably helped Critz so this one is likely dead even now.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 10:12:31 AM »

Well, let's see. This CD has about a Pub 5% PVI, and Mittens is leading by 15%,  a swing of 6.2% (3.7% + 2.5%). That is enough if replicated statewide, for Mittens to win PA by a point or two.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 10:16:27 AM »

And Mittens is down by 10-12 statewide. Also, I don't see this seat swinging towards him by some exceptional amount relative to the rest of the state. Call it a hunch. Tongue Bad poll most likely.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 10:30:01 AM »

Well, let's see. This CD has about a Pub 5% PVI, and Mittens is leading by 15%,  a swing of 6.2% (3.7% + 2.5%). That is enough if replicated statewide, for Mittens to win PA by a point or two.

Which says more about the poll than his chances in PA, one would think.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 10:44:11 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2012, 10:48:34 AM by krazen1211 »

Well, let's see. This CD has about a Pub 5% PVI, and Mittens is leading by 15%,  a swing of 6.2% (3.7% + 2.5%). That is enough if replicated statewide, for Mittens to win PA by a point or two.

More than 5%. McCain won it 54-45.

Susquehanna nicely polled this district much better than others in 2010.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/pa/pennsylvania_12th_district_special_election_burns_vs_critz-1472.html
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 11:34:52 AM »

Well, let's see. This CD has about a Pub 5% PVI, and Mittens is leading by 15%,  a swing of 6.2% (3.7% + 2.5%). That is enough if replicated statewide, for Mittens to win PA by a point or two.

More than 5%. McCain won it 54-45.

Susquehanna nicely polled this district much better than others in 2010.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/pa/pennsylvania_12th_district_special_election_burns_vs_critz-1472.html

I stand corrected. That is a PVI of 9%, a swing of but 2.2%, not enough to win PA, and indeed not enough to win the national popular vote (Mittens needs a swing of 3.7%). 
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2012, 12:31:21 PM »

So it considered "great news" that Critz was up 11 in his internal, but Rothfus is only up 2 in his?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2012, 02:20:41 PM »

So it considered "great news" that Critz was up 11 in his internal, but Rothfus is only up 2 in his?

This is a newspaper poll not an internal poll.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2012, 02:27:51 PM »

If I was looking for a body, it wouldn't be in the Susquehanna.  (Now, that is cryptic.)

If I were looking for an accurate result, it wouldn't be in a Susquehanna Poll. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2012, 08:51:35 AM »

http://www.politicspa.com/gop-poll-rothfus-42-critz-40/42232/


Rothfus 42
Critz 40



They also had a bizarre twitter exchange.


Background: Keith Rothfus accidentally cut his forehead while shooting a crossbow at a campaign event in Somerset County.


Critz Tweet 1:
Mark Critz ‏@critz4congress
I hear that @krpa12 is pretty handy with a crossbow. Kinda like a "regular guy". How many regular guys end up w/bandaid on there head? #PA12
Critz Tweet 2:

@krpa12 Can't wait to see you at the debate on Wed. Leave the crossbow at home. I hear that you're not so good with those, country boy #PA12
Critz Tweet 3:

Who from western PA can't handle a crossbow or a gun? Surely a regular guy can.
Critz Tweet 4:

I hear that "Crossbow Keith" is a regular guy! #PA12
Expand   Reply  Retweet  Favorite
Neutral observer's Tweet (take a look what happens when a neutral observer points out that Critz was starting to sound desperate, as if the race was tightening):

SalenaZito ‏@SalenaZitoTrib (a political reporter)
clearly this House race has tightened.-> @critz4congress Who from western PA can't handle a crossbow or a gun? Surely a regular guy can.
Critz Tweet 5:

MarkCritz: @SalenaZitoTrib Oh no. Just having fun with the "Regular Guy"!
Critz Tweet 6:

@KRPA12 - Regular guys don't end up with bandages from crossbows unless their regular guys! #Pa12
Critz Tweet 7:

"Crossbow Keith" is a "regular guy". Uh huh. #PA12
Critz Tweet 8:

"Crossbow Keith" is a pretender. He's not a "regular guy". He's a millionaire who will cut HIS taxes to raise yours. #PA12
Rothfus responds classily:

Keith Rothfus ‏@KRPA12
@critz4congress Utterly embarrassing from an elected member of Congress. #PA12
Critz Tweet 9:

@KRPA12 What's embarrassing is watching someone pretend that he's a regular guy when he is anything but that #PA12





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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2012, 04:59:31 PM »

The Rothfus ads have been really heavy and ridiculous out here so I'm interested to see what effect they have on the race.  (I'm a field organizer for the party in the area so I'm living up here.)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2012, 06:55:51 PM »

The Rothfus ads have been really heavy and ridiculous out here so I'm interested to see what effect they have on the race.  (I'm a field organizer for the party in the area so I'm living up here.)

It's weird when people grow up - I mean that in a literal sense, btw, not in the other...
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HappyWarrior
hannibal
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2012, 04:01:17 PM »

The Rothfus ads have been really heavy and ridiculous out here so I'm interested to see what effect they have on the race.  (I'm a field organizer for the party in the area so I'm living up here.)

It's weird when people grow up - I mean that in a literal sense, btw, not in the other...

Whatcha mean?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2012, 04:20:59 PM »


Time passes, you know. Fycking weird, right?
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2012, 09:57:51 PM »

It is a weird race.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2012, 03:47:23 AM »

Judging by the last few posts in here, I'm guessing someone brought the good grass over to this thread? Tongue Wink
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