Who gets the bounce?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I say Mild 3 point boost for obama

[dspNY]

I say Mild 3 point boost for obama

Very optimistic...maybe a point or 1.5 pts in our favor. The race is mostly up for grabs and Tuesday's town hall is one of the biggest debates in presidential history, IMO

[Likely Voter]

I think the polls were headed back to Obama+1 on their own. Some might attribute that to the VP debate but it probably was headed that way anyway.

[Yank2133]

I think the polls were headed back to Obama+1 on their own. Some might attribute that to the VP debate but it probably was headed that way anyway.

This.

[Jacob]

I predict that by Monday, Obama will be +3.5 in VA and +7 in OH. National polls will show a tie or a one point Obama lead. If Obama beats Romney on Tuesday in post-debate polls, national polls will move to a +2 Obama lead, and the election will be nearly over.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think there's going to be a bounce in terms of vote change - anything will likely be based on increased enthusiasm.

[Eraserhead]

There won't really be a "bounce". It might help to halt Romney's surge, although there were already signs of his rise waning pre-debate.

[cinyc]

There's too little time in between the VP and second Presidential debates to measure any real bounce.  The second Presidential debate is next Tuesday.   The 7-day trackers won't be able to differentiate a post-VP debate bounce from the post-Presidential debate bounce without including pre-VP debate days.  The 3-day trackers will only be all post-VP debate for a day or two, which could just be measuring statistical noise instead of any prolonged bounce.

[後援会]

I think the polls were headed back to Obama+1 on their own. Some might attribute that to the VP debate but it probably was headed that way anyway.

This.

This, though I'm thinking his lead might be in the decimals, if it exists at all.

[5280]

Nobody got a bounce.

[Chaddyr23]

Nobody got a bounce.

Agreed

[Reaganfan]

I actually thought this was a horrible debate. I live for this stuff and even I was close to shutting it off. You had Ryan composed, Biden trying to fire up the base and looking like a moron while doing so, and nothing but talking points from both sides. Everytime I wanted to hear Ryan's answer, Biden opened his mouth. I'm sure this negated many from thinking he was the victor.

What is funny is that I felt last week's debate was a much better debate (not just because my favored candidate won) but because Jim Lehrer was a decent moderator, didn't interrupt, and both Romney and Obama gave their cases to the American public, yet I've seen some undecided focus groups say they preferred this debate format.

This debate is what makes people hate politics. Just a constant back and forth. I will say that this now shows how high the stakes are for President Obama next week. If he does what Biden did tonight, he'll come across mean-spirited and unpresidential. However, if he lays off too much, it will be a repeat of his first debate performance.

Overall, I say no bounce, still a close race and either man's to win although Romney probably still has slight momentum.

[Jacob]

I actually thought this was a horrible debate. I live for this stuff and even I was close to shutting it off. You had Ryan composed, Biden trying to fire up the base and looking like a moron while doing so, and nothing but talking points from both sides. Everytime I wanted to hear Ryan's answer, Biden opened his mouth. I'm sure this negated many from thinking he was the victor.

What is funny is that I felt last week's debate was a much better debate (not just because my favored candidate won) but because Jim Lehrer was a decent moderator, didn't interrupt, and both Romney and Obama gave their cases to the American public, yet I've seen some undecided focus groups say they preferred this debate format.

This debate is what makes people hate politics. Just a constant back and forth. I will say that this now shows how high the stakes are for President Obama next week. If he does what Biden did tonight, he'll come across mean-spirited and unpresidential. However, if he lays off too much, it will be a repeat of his first debate performance.

Overall, I say no bounce, still a close race and either man's to win although Romney probably still has slight momentum.

More importantly though, Reagan fan, how do your Democratic family members feel about this? They appear to be real bellwethers so I need to know their inner most thoughts in order to hedge my intrade bets.

[Reaganfan]

I actually thought this was a horrible debate. I live for this stuff and even I was close to shutting it off. You had Ryan composed, Biden trying to fire up the base and looking like a moron while doing so, and nothing but talking points from both sides. Everytime I wanted to hear Ryan's answer, Biden opened his mouth. I'm sure this negated many from thinking he was the victor.

What is funny is that I felt last week's debate was a much better debate (not just because my favored candidate won) but because Jim Lehrer was a decent moderator, didn't interrupt, and both Romney and Obama gave their cases to the American public, yet I've seen some undecided focus groups say they preferred this debate format.

This debate is what makes people hate politics. Just a constant back and forth. I will say that this now shows how high the stakes are for President Obama next week. If he does what Biden did tonight, he'll come across mean-spirited and unpresidential. However, if he lays off too much, it will be a repeat of his first debate performance.

Overall, I say no bounce, still a close race and either man's to win although Romney probably still has slight momentum.

More importantly though, Reagan fan, how do your Democratic family members feel about this? They appear to be real bellwethers so I need to know their inner most thoughts in order to hedge my intrade bets.

Let me clear up my family and how they're voting because despite your sarcasm, Ohio voters are critical to this election.

My father and I are loyal Republicans.

My mother voted for Bush in 1988 and 1992, Dole in 1996, and Bush 43 in 2000 and 2004. Then came the 2008 Democratic Primary. I can't tell you the impact the 2008 Democratic Primary had on my sisters and my mother. My sisters went from disliking Hillary Clinton to wishing she had won in June 2008, and my mother disliked Hillary so much she fell into Obamamania. All three of them ended up voting for the Obama/Biden ticket, and my mother claims the only Republican she would have voted for over Obama would have been Rudy Giuliani and I suspect if Giuliani were the nominee right now, she'd be voting for him.

Also, my mother became engaged to a man who tends to vote Democrat in 2007, and clearly he was supporting Obama and helped persuade her.

My older sister is voting for Romney this time with her husband and are more heavily involved in politics than ever before. They even attended a Romney rally in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio this past Tuesday night. She and her husband told me that they voted for Obama, saw things get worse and him not meet expectations, and feel it's time for a new President. It's actually the most simple example of how some Presidents become one-termers.

My younger sister and her husband are voting for Obama because my younger sister worries that Romney will get rid of "Planned Parenthood" and she thinks food stamps will become non-existent, blah blah blah. When I try and explain things to her from my belief, she can't understand them and she thinks I'm "cold-hearted". What's funny is that my younger sister has had drama lately because she refuses to work, literally, and says she would rather her husband stay at home with her and they receive benefits rather than have him work because she "likes him being around". We all, even my Obama voting mother, try and tell her, "It's better to let him work than live off welfare" but she buys into the mindset that if she can get free stuff without working, it's worth it. It is quite sad, and yes, she's voting Obama.

My mother and her husband are voting for Obama because they claim he is the "lesser of two evils" and they think that he's trying and deserves a second chance. They are concerned though over lack of enthusiasm and recent polls. What's funny is they are against gay marriage, against abortion, ect ect and stand with Obama despite his positions. I believe they and many voters vote on personality.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Obama < 1%

[Grumpier Than Thou]

No bounce. If there is one, it'll go to Obama-Biden

[Cryptic]

Possibly no bounce.  Possibly slight Obama bounce, mainly due to enthusiasm being restored amongst Democratics.  Either way, no major shifts till the 2nd Presidential debate. 

[Phony Moderate]

Perhaps a little one for Obama-Biden. VP debates rarely have that much effect on the polls. Even Dukakis-Bentsen didn't really get a bounce in 1988.

[RogueBeaver]

What bounce?

[morgieb]

No bounce. If there is one, it'll go to Obama-Biden

[zorkpolitics]

I doubt there will be any bounce, Republican leaning voters were satisfied Ryan acted Presidential, Democratic leaning voters were satisfied Biden was alive.
Based on polling one might expect a small GOP bounce, since most viewers thought Ryan won:

Final CNN poll who won? Ryan 49 Biden 43
NBC poll who won? Ryan 56 to Biden 36
AP poll who won? Ryan 51 to Biden 43

But the media will spin it as a Biden win, so I don't expect any bounce either way

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've already seen the links for the CNN poll, can you link to the others, because I've been looking and can't find them.

[DrScholl]

The AP poll doesn't exist and the CNBC poll is an online poll that later flipped to an advantage for Biden.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, I heard rumours that Drudge linked to a fake AP poll, which he subsequently took down...

So the only poll that's vaguely reputable that has a MoE Ryan win, wasn't representative and didn't pretend to be in the small print?

[Holmes]

There's too little time in between the VP and second Presidential debates to measure any real bounce.  The second Presidential debate is next Tuesday.   The 7-day trackers won't be able to differentiate a post-VP debate bounce from the post-Presidential debate bounce without including pre-VP debate days.  The 3-day trackers will only be all post-VP debate for a day or two, which could just be measuring statistical noise instead of any prolonged bounce.

Sort of like Romney got "no bounce" from the RNC because the DNC was right afterwards and sort of cancelled it out in the tracking polls, yes? Either way, I think there will be some sort of bounce, probably undetected, because I'm assuming Democrats are more energized after last night. Biden did what Obama could not.