NH/FL, ARG: Romney in the lead

[krazen1211]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Florida

Romney 49
Obama 46

New  Hampshire

Romney 50
Obama 46



Good news.

[dirks]

NH is the wildest, loosest, whore of a state in the US. Honestly Romney could be head by 10 in the final poll on the even of the election and it wouldn't shock me if he lost NH, or vise versa

[dirks]

It also looks like a Romney win without Ohio is not looking quite as impossible, especially if he can hold NH.

He's got NC, Obama is quietly drawing down in that state. They've cut TV commercial buys in half

VA is becoming more solid Romney, not quite there yet

He'll need Iowa which is a toss up...so that could go either way

Florida is now "lean Romney" it would have to stay this way

he'll need to pick off either Nevada or WI as well

[Bandit3 the Worker]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Florida

Romney 49
Obama 46

New  Hampshire

Romney 50
Obama 46

Haha. No.

[J. J.]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Florida

Romney 49
Obama 46

New  Hampshire

Romney 50
Obama 46

Haha. No.

You are right; it is probably bigger in FL.

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Florida President by ARG on 2012-10-11

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Sample is D+3.

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2012-10-11

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Party ID is Independent+1

[NVGonzalez]

Argh... but it's ARG.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

NH tends to bounce off the walls throughout the election, so a lead for Romney doesn't surprise me. Florida will probably be consistently within 2% for both candidates.

[Reds4]

I'm a Republican... but I'm always fair about which Party ID samples look off... hard to imagine NH being GOP +6..  FL looks about right, but not NH

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Bear in mind, NH did give Kelly Ayotte 60% in 2010... It's not inconceivable for Romney to be ahead here given this is one of many of his "home states."

But this is ARG. Didn't they somehow have a great season in 2010?

[dspNY]

Florida poll is probably very close to correct (I think it's only Romney +1 or 2)

But that NH poll is whacked

[Mr. Morden]

Bear in mind, NH did give Kelly Ayotte 60% in 2010... It's not inconceivable for Romney to be ahead here given this is one of many of his "home states."

But this is ARG. Didn't they somehow have a great season in 2010?

After Super Tuesday 2008, their poll numbers went from downright insane to somewhat close to the consensus of other pollsters overnight.  I don't think they've really gotten any better.  They just started making numbers up that don't look as bad.  I mean, the head of their polling company has demonstrated that he doesn't actually understand the most basic concepts of polling:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/arg-my-brain-hurts.html

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Florida yes I can believe that gap, NH moving like that, sorry, no.

[後援会]

Honestly, there is no result that could come out of New Hampshire that could surprise me.

[SPQR]

ARG polls remain utter sh*t regardless of party ID and anything else.

[Penelope]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Florida

Romney 49
Obama 46

New  Hampshire

Romney 50
Obama 46

Haha. No.

"I reject your reality and substitute my own!"