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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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| |-+  Economics (Moderator: ag)
| | |-+  2012 budget deficit checks in @ 7% of GDP, down from 8.7% in 2011 (- 200 Bio. $)
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Author Topic: 2012 budget deficit checks in @ 7% of GDP, down from 8.7% in 2011 (- 200 Bio. $)  (Read 917 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 12, 2012, 02:32:08 pm »
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The federal budget deficit was about $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates, approximately $200 billion less than the shortfall recorded in 2011. At 7.0 percent of gross domestic product, the 2012 deficit was down from 8.7 percent in 2011 and 9.0 percent in 2010 but greater than in any year between 1947 and 2008. The estimated 2012 total reflects the shift of some payments from fiscal year 2012 into fiscal year 2011 (that is, from October 2011 to September 2011, because October 1 fell on a weekend); without that timing shift, the deficit in 2012 would have been about $30 billion higher.

The Treasury recorded a surplus of $75 billion in September 2012, CBO estimates, in contrast with the $63 billion deficit incurred in the same month last year. Shifts in the timing of certain payments influenced the results in both years: Payments totaling $31 billion were shifted from October 2011 to September 2011, while payments totaling $58 billion were shifted from September 2012 to August 2012. Adjusted for those timing shifts, the surplus in September 2012 would have been $17 billion, in contrast with a deficit of $32 billion in September 2011.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/2012_09_MBR.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2012, 02:37:11 pm »
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Two sides to this - it is unfortunate that more was not spent, as it is very bad timing for austerity.  On the other hand, the revenue is up due to the improving economy.  Next year's inevitable cyclical boom will continue this trend doubly so.
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2012, 05:27:13 pm »
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What was it during the last Bush budget (FY 2009)? The deficit will likely fall below $1 trillion next year.
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Brian Schweitzer '16
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2012, 04:27:16 am »
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The U.S. is really in a nice position. It can run 10% deficits without serious consequences.
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2012, 08:14:20 am »
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What was it during the last Bush budget (FY 2009)? The deficit will likely fall below $1 trillion next year.

When it was passed it was expected to be around 400 billion, but it wound up being 1 trillion plus.
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2012, 02:07:00 pm »
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What was it during the last Bush budget (FY 2009)? The deficit will likely fall below $1 trillion next year.

When it was passed it was expected to be around 400 billion, but it wound up being 1 trillion plus.

I meant as a share of GDP. It looks like it was around 10%. So Obama has managed to reduce the deficit as % of GDP from 10% to 7%.
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Brian Schweitzer '16
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2012, 02:08:31 pm »
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What was it during the last Bush budget (FY 2009)? The deficit will likely fall below $1 trillion next year.

When it was passed it was expected to be around 400 billion, but it wound up being 1 trillion plus.

I meant as a share of GDP. It looks like it was around 10%. So Obama has managed to reduce the deficit as % of GDP from 10% to 7%.

Oh, I see.

Using Google's public data:

Bush II had one year with a 1% surplus, followed by 6 with deficits between 1-3%. In his last year he ran a deficit of 10% GDP.

Obama on the other hand has ran deficits of about 9%, 8.6%, and 8.5% so far. The CBO projects a deficit of around 5.5% GDP next year.

After digging into the data a bit I found that revenues are expected to rise by a whopping 17% or over $400 billion while expenditures will remain static. Such a large increase seems like it is based on the assumption that the Bush tax cuts will not be renewed, so I'd take the rosy outlook with a grain of salt.

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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2012, 01:05:39 pm »
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Bush II had one year with a 1% surplus, followed by 6 with deficits between 1-3%. In his last year he ran a deficit of 10% GDP.

Obama on the other hand has ran deficits of about 9%, 8.6%, and 8.5% so far.

The Bush deficits were artifically suppressed by the housing/credit bubble, during which private sector deficits were running at upwards of 15-20% per year. To make matters worse, there was no awareness of the issue (unlike today). Once that collapsed during Bush's final year, it was all dumped onto the public sector. Nonetheless, deficits have been reduced while growth has been maintained for every consecutive year under Obama, which is no easy feat- just ask the Europeans who are trying to reduce deficits and maintain growth but can't seem to manage both- or in some cases, either.

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The CBO projects a deficit of around 5.5% GDP next year.

The article suggest 2012 is coming in at 7%, and that's a reasonable estimate against the claims that it will fall to 5.5%, which I highly doubt.
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Brian Schweitzer '16
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2012, 05:59:25 pm »
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The article suggest 2012 is coming in at 7%, and that's a reasonable estimate against the claims that it will fall to 5.5%, which I highly doubt.

The 5.5% is based on the assumption that the Bush tax cuts will expire for everyone. I'm with you on the 7% number. As for Bush v Obama, I tend to disapprove of both for the same reasons (too much spending, unjustified military actions, infringing on people's rights etc.)
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2012, 09:47:19 pm »
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The article suggest 2012 is coming in at 7%, and that's a reasonable estimate against the claims that it will fall to 5.5%, which I highly doubt.

The 5.5% is based on the assumption that the Bush tax cuts will expire for everyone. I'm with you on the 7% number. As for Bush v Obama, I tend to disapprove of both for the same reasons (too much spending, unjustified military actions, infringing on people's rights etc.)

Apart from the stimulus, Obama hasn't exactly been profligate when it comes to discretionary spending. Of course, none of these things distinguishes them from what Romney would do.
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Brian Schweitzer '16
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