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| | |-+  Who is more likely to win?
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Question: Who is more likely to win?
Richard Carmona   -16 (51.6%)
Shelley Berkley   -15 (48.4%)
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Who is more likely to win?  (Read 589 times)
Mister Twister
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« on: October 12, 2012, 10:14:33 pm »
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Tough
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2012, 11:01:44 pm »
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I think Carmona will have a better chance of winning; he's had consistently pretty good numbers, he doesn't have damaging scandals like Berkley, he's got a compelling story, his campaign is extremely competent, and he's not facing an incumbent Senator.
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2012, 11:03:34 pm »
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Berkley - Flake should get drug across the finish line with Romney. However, Democrats tend to underpoll in Nevada. If I had to guess right now, Flake will narrowly win in Arizona, while Berkley and Heller is anyone's guess - will be very tight.
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2012, 11:05:58 pm »
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I said Carmona. Who would have thought that Flake might have a better chance of losing than Heller a few month ago?

I'm surprised Nevada doesn't have a strong Democratic bench. Can't they some cool, suave magician/card-shark/womanizer from Las Vegas to run?
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2012, 12:19:02 am »
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I said Carmona. Who would have thought that Flake might have a better chance of losing than Heller a few month ago?

I'm surprised Nevada doesn't have a strong Democratic bench. Can't they some cool, suave magician/card-shark/womanizer from Las Vegas to run?

I don't know much about Nevada politics, so I don't know, but perhaps Dina Titus could have run if she could have politically survived 2010.
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2012, 12:45:27 am »
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Berkley was a pretty good recruit until she turned out to be incredibly corrupt apparently. She'd probably be up by a decent amount right now if not for that.
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2012, 05:40:43 pm »
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I believe they'll both win, and are about equally likely to do so, Carmona for his own 'merits', and the other one because of Nevada's polling tendency.
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2012, 06:43:22 pm »
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Neither one is likely at all, but probably Berkeley because at least Nevada's a real swing state, unlike Arizona, which Democrats would love to make more competitive but probably won't, at least for a few more years yet.
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2012, 08:05:54 pm »
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I predict both will lose, but Berkley has a much better chance simply because of the dynamics of her state and machine behind her.

I think Carmona has about a 15% chance of winning- I think his numbers ATM are an illusion to some extent.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2012, 08:48:58 pm »
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Berkley, but both will lose.
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2012, 09:56:41 pm »
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Carmona is a better candidate but Berkley is in a closer state, is a better fundraiser and I'd say has a weaker opponent. So Berkley.
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2012, 10:48:41 pm »
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I think Carmona will win so he has a better shot.  Berkley vs. Heller is a tossup.
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2012, 12:30:34 am »
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If Berkley wins it will be basically because of the Obama coattails that brought her up there. At this point this race is a 51/49 for Heller.
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2012, 07:33:16 pm »
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There is increasing evidence of a "Nevada effect" leading democrats to significantly and consistently overperform polling there. If polls give Heller an around 4% lead, my guess is that the race is actually a dead heat. It's only a guess, and could prove wrong, but so far I give a lead to Berkeley.
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2012, 01:36:07 am »
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This is tough.

As candidates with crossover appeal I think Carmona has the edge. For the states, Nevada has more of a Democratic edge than Arizona but Arizona Republicans had a home-state boost in 2008 they won't be getting this year and they seriously screwed up with Hispanics (rhetoric, SB1070, Romney, etc) so I expect that gap will narrow.

I'd weight those differences pretty closely but I'm going to go with Berkley because the Nevada Democratic party seems to be organized pretty good as far as turnout and voter registration: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108604/nevadas-democratic-registration-numbers-jeopardizes-romneys-chances

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Obama won the Silver State by 12 points in 2008, but it has an extremely weak economy and the polls show have shown a close race, even if Obama has consistently held a lead.

But over the last few months, Democrats decisively won the voter registration wars and registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans by an ’08-esque margin. In Clark County, home to Las Vegas, Democrats now lead by more than they did in 2008, and they’re still counting registration forms.

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70 percent of Nevada voters live in Clark County and Obama won it by 19 points in 2008. After running up the score for several months, Democrats now represent 45 percent of registered voters there and hold a 15-point edge over Republicans.
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2012, 01:57:58 pm »
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Carmona. Heller is a better candidate than Flake and the only recent polls with Berkley up have high undecideds, which I'm taking as a bad indication.
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