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| | |-+  Why do Democrat transplants to R states effect outcome?
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Author Topic: Why do Democrat transplants to R states effect outcome?  (Read 1933 times)
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MagneticFree
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« on: October 14, 2012, 06:54:19 pm »
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I've noticed a trend thats been occuring since the 90s.  What's up with all the Democrats that transplant/move to a Republican state, often change the demographics of a state? Examples are Californians moving to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Before the '88 election, they were fairly moderate states.

Is there ever a way Republican transplants moved to a Democrat state, it trends GOP?  Why are the GOP weak when it comes to getting out the vote early compared to Obama's GOTV? Do Republicans move out of state to find something that resembles the past?
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 06:56:57 pm by 5280 »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2012, 07:01:37 pm »
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I guess cause Democrats tend to be younger and more open to change, so they move to different places.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2012, 07:26:49 pm »
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That's a great question.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the states that are trending R are more a result of existing voters trending R rather than transplants.

For example: Religious working class Catholics used to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but are now generally trending R. Hence, places like Wisconsin and Ohio moving gradually towards the right.
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2012, 07:33:54 pm »
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That's a great question.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the states that are trending R are more a result of existing voters trending R rather than transplants.

For example: Religious working class Catholics used to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but are now generally trending R. Hence, places like Wisconsin and Ohio moving gradually towards the right.
Does Michigan fit the bill since the state's population is decreasing two-fold?  Who wants to live there anyway, besides cheap housing?
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2012, 07:39:05 pm »
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well Georgia was a relatively democrat state until the 1990s. It was then that people from out of state started moving to places like Gwinnett or Forsyth to get away from the scary swarthy looking people from their home states.
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2012, 08:52:38 pm »
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That's a great question.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the states that are trending R are more a result of existing voters trending R rather than transplants.

For example: Religious working class Catholics used to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but are now generally trending R. Hence, places like Wisconsin and Ohio moving gradually towards the right.
Does Michigan fit the bill since the state's population is decreasing two-fold?  Who wants to live there anyway, besides cheap housing?

I'd say so. The massive amount of union workers leaving the state can't be hurting the Republican party, that's for sure.
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2012, 09:17:51 pm »
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Well, the thing to remember is that Democrat transplants aren't the only story. Most of the trending D states (Colorado, Virginia, Nevada) have large and growing minority populations that bolster Dems there. This is definitely illustrated if you compare the Southern D-trending states to the Western D-trending states. The latter is definitely more democratic.
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2012, 11:31:50 pm »
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I assume it's the jobs and robust economies in current red states is why they come.
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2012, 08:37:24 am »
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I've noticed a trend thats been occuring since the 90s.  What's up with all the Democrats that transplant/move to a Republican state, often change the demographics of a state? Examples are Californians moving to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Before the '88 election, they were fairly moderate states.

Is there ever a way Republican transplants moved to a Democrat state, it trends GOP?  Why are the GOP weak when it comes to getting out the vote early compared to Obama's GOTV? Do Republicans move out of state to find something that resembles the past?
Actually, a lot of that also had to do with social issues as well, and how Bill Clinton won the suburbanites over for the Democrats in '92, and they've never looked back.  Likewise, many Southern states that had been Democrat-leaning berfore trended GOP after Republican transplants started moving to those states.
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2012, 07:31:55 pm »
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I've noticed a trend thats been occuring since the 90s.  What's up with all the Democrats that transplant/move to a Republican state, often change the demographics of a state? Examples are Californians moving to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Before the '88 election, they were fairly moderate states.

Is there ever a way Republican transplants moved to a Democrat state, it trends GOP?  Why are the GOP weak when it comes to getting out the vote early compared to Obama's GOTV? Do Republicans move out of state to find something that resembles the past?
Actually, a lot of that also had to do with social issues as well, and how Bill Clinton won the suburbanites over for the Democrats in '92, and they've never looked back.  Likewise, many Southern states that had been Democrat-leaning berfore trended GOP after Republican transplants started moving to those states.
What are the differences between a Republican and Democrat transplant that usher them to move to specific states?
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2012, 09:26:03 pm »
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What about the post-Katrina Lousiana emmigration? This is probably an example of those D-transplants affecting the partisan composition of the state they left behind (by making it more R-friendly).
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 11:35:31 am »
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well Georgia was a relatively democrat state until the 1990s. It was then that people from out of state started moving to places like Gwinnett or Forsyth to get away from the scary swarthy looking people from their home states.

You can't really say that Georgia was a Democratic state until the 1990s. That was certainly true at the state level, as was in the case in nearly every other southern state. On the national level we became a Republican state in the 60s and 70s, well before most of our growth happened.

And most people who have moved to Forsyth and other suburban counties are actually white people from inner city areas, like Atlanta and Dekalb County, so it's more of a shift than in influx. Although a lot of the out of state transplants kind of like to think of themselves as "blue state refugees."

But the largest migration to Georgia today comes from immigrants and minorities, who are more likely to vote Democrat, which is why I believe GA will trend left in the next decade.
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2012, 08:40:44 pm »
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Carter delayed end of Democratic control of Georgia by some years and Democratic organization in Georgia was more cohesive with national party than in another Dixiecrat states. They supported Truman in 1948.
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2012, 04:56:47 pm »
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In-migration is higher in more of the Republican-leaning states, than the Democratic-leaning states. Are there many Democratic states with a good amount of Repub transplants?
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2012, 01:33:56 am »
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I've noticed a trend thats been occuring since the 90s.  What's up with all the Democrats that transplant/move to a Republican state, often change the demographics of a state? Examples are Californians moving to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Before the '88 election, they were fairly moderate states.

Before the '92 election, to say nothing of '88, California was a largely GOP state.

This has less to do with Dem transplants, and more to do with the changing face of the two parties.  When the Dems moderated on economic issues, and the Republicans embraced social conservatives, a lot of northern states with sizable moderate Republican populations trended D.  While Dem transplants have made a difference in places like Nevada (which is largely a matter of Latino immigration, and thus not entirely comparable) and along the south Atlantic coast in places like Virginia and South Florida, you really can't use them to explain places like Oregon and Washington.

One place where Republican in-migration might make a difference down the road is in the Twin Cities exurbs. 
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2012, 09:11:38 pm »
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I've noticed a trend thats been occuring since the 90s.  What's up with all the Democrats that transplant/move to a Republican state, often change the demographics of a state? Examples are Californians moving to Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Before the '88 election, they were fairly moderate states.

Before the '92 election, to say nothing of '88, California was a largely GOP state.

This has less to do with Dem transplants, and more to do with the changing face of the two parties.  When the Dems moderated on economic issues, and the Republicans embraced social conservatives, a lot of northern states with sizable moderate Republican populations trended D.  While Dem transplants have made a difference in places like Nevada (which is largely a matter of Latino immigration, and thus not entirely comparable) and along the south Atlantic coast in places like Virginia and South Florida, you really can't use them to explain places like Oregon and Washington.

One place where Republican in-migration might make a difference down the road is in the Twin Cities exurbs. 

I'd argue that demographic and other broader social trends had a lot to do with the parties changing.
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2012, 12:06:35 pm »
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2012, 10:37:30 pm »
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As someone who lives in Houston, TX; I somewhat feel the effect of this on a local or countywide level.

But didn't D's that moved to Florida helped made it a swing state?
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2012, 12:14:34 pm »
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Take a look and read this article, it explains why Democrats affect right-wing voting patterns in red states. I hate to say this, but some Democrats are parasites.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/29/Report-225-000-Californians-A-Year-Escaping-State-s-High-Taxes-Burdensome-Regulations-Economic-And-Public-Sector-Instability
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2012, 01:07:15 pm »
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well there are alot of Californian's coming to Idaho and the GOP still dominates elections here
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2012, 01:25:12 pm »
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2012, 02:59:14 pm »
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im not mad bro im just saying the facts
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« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2012, 03:07:02 pm »
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im not mad bro im just saying the facts

No no man, not you.

The OP.
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2012, 03:09:08 pm »
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im not mad bro im just saying the facts

No no man, not you.

The OP.
ah ok lol
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« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2012, 09:15:10 pm »
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well there are alot of Californian's coming to Idaho and the GOP still dominates elections here

I imagine that that is because most of the Californians moving to that area of the country are more likely to be conservatives than the Californians moving to Nevada and Colorado.
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