Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney

[LastVoter]

Spokane county flips

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Alright:

Interesting. Just curious: What factors lead you to believe the Democratic bleeding (especially for Obama) in the SW will stop and he'll swing a couple counties back? Especially if we assume that at best Obama's national margin will be a bit lower than in 08?

Nearly every election has at least one state that swings the opposite direction; even 1980 had Vermont. My hunch in the Southwest is based on Obama's Bain Capital line of attack on Romney. Ohio seems to be trending Democratic based on that, suggesting that Obama's gain is from the working-class eastern counties. In addition, plenty of voters there were bitter over Hillary's loss in 2008. Obama is a poor candidate for SWPA, but I think he'll narrowly take Greene and Fayette counties. Romney's improvements in PA come from gains in Central Pennsylvania and the Philly suburbs.

[Donerail]

Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.

I thought Flagler had been trending D recently; maybe not enough, but there's still a decent shot for Obama. As for Hillsborough, I really don't see Romney winning there; the demographic shifts mean that it's pretty far out of reach for Romney.

I think if you look at the 2010 governor's race, that's a pretty good map of where the trends are headed.
I'll say Obama loses Volusia and Flagler, and Hillsborough being the bellweather, it might flip as well.

For Orange county (Orlando), where I live, I see overwhelming support for Romney in Winter Park, East Orlando, Metrowest, College Park, while Obama gets support in Pine Hills, and South Orlando.

Orange County I predict 54/46 Obama.

I'd tend to agree with 2010 being a guide, but with more enthusiastic D turnout due to it being a Presidential year I don't think Volusia/Monroe fall just yet. Flagler remains a tossup.

[Adam Griffin]

[Seattle]

Spokane county flips

That's pretty generous to Obama. I don't think Obama will win Klickitat or Spokane. Whitman will be close again, but he should probably pull out a win there.

[LastVoter]

Spokane county flips

That's pretty generous to Obama. I don't think Obama will win Klickitat or Spokane. Whitman will be close again, but he should probably pull out a win there.

Obama will win more working class whites, almost everywhere in the USA, because he made Bain capital and Romney's wealth the issue of the election for them, rather than his racism.

[Spanish Moss]

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

I'd have to make a few corrections in terms of my own guess - I think Chenango and Otsego will go Romney by more than 2%, not Obama, and Broome will go Romney with less than 1%.  Obama obviously will still most certainly win the state.

[Averroës Nix]

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

I'd have to make a few corrections in terms of my own guess - I think Chenango and Otsego will go Romney by more than 2%, not Obama, and Broome will go Romney with less than 1%.  Obama obviously will still most certainly win the state.

I have Romney winning Chenango! And Obama took Broome with over 54% in '08 - I don't see Romney pulling enough voters to swing the county, although I would be interested in hearing why you expect him to manage that feat. Otsego is a more difficult case to predict, but I expect that whoever wins that county will fall short of a majority.

[Devils30]

I think Romney sweeps the western PA counties McCain won. Obama's Ohio win will likely come from an improvement around Cleveland and especially Toledo/NW Ohio to Columbus and not the depressed eastern counties.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I think Romney sweeps the western PA counties McCain won. Obama's Ohio win will likely come from an improvement around Cleveland and especially Toledo/NW Ohio to Columbus and not the depressed eastern counties.

I don't know, Romney isn't exactly a good fit for that area.  Plus Romney probably won't go after Western PA like McCain did in 2008.