Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney
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  Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney
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Author Topic: Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney  (Read 3146 times)
timothyinMD
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« on: October 15, 2012, 07:36:57 AM »
« edited: October 15, 2012, 11:11:37 AM by timothyinMD »



I used my own Md template because Dave Leip's makes it too hard to distinguish the difference between the shades.  Not much change in Md.  We don't have swing counties.

Kent: Obama 40% -> Romney 50%
A.A and Frederick: Romney 40% -> Romney 50%
Talbot, Harford and Cecil: Romney 50% -> Romney 60%
Garrett: Romney 60% -> 70%

Perhaps Obama could flirt with 90% in P.G.

I'm in Harford County, for us I predict:
61.5 Romney
36.0 Obama
2.5 Others
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2012, 08:41:29 AM »

I'll predict 58-41 in Lancaster, PA (where I am). The Latino vote has grown too much for Mitt to break 60%.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2012, 10:14:42 AM »

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2012, 11:42:24 AM »

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.


A question: The county above Erie (Niagra, I believe) barely swung D in 2008. What happened there?

As for Pennsylvania total, I'll say about 3% better for Obama than the national average, so maybe 52-47. County map will be up soon. My second home state, New Jersey, should be about 54-45 Obama.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2012, 12:23:20 PM »

A question: The county above Erie (Niagra, I believe) barely swung D in 2008. What happened there?

It's interesting; nearly every county in the Buffalo MSA trended away from the Democrats in 2008, but in the adjacent Rochester MSA, most of them swung toward the Democrats. Strongly, too: Kerry won by a three-point margin in Monroe County, where Rochester is located; Obama won Monroe by nearly 18 points. In Erie, where Kerry won by 15 points, Obama's margin was a fraction of a point less than what it was in Monroe.

Some important differences between Rochester and Buffalo in 2008 (most still hold):

- Rochester was growing, Buffalo was losing population

- Rochester had a more educated population

- Rochester's work force was better paid

- (I think) Rochester had a larger student population
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2012, 04:04:02 PM »

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Ty440
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2012, 04:19:15 PM »


Obama carries Harris again ? He barely squeaked by in 2008, maybe due to the growing minority vote?
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2012, 04:26:19 PM »


Obama carries Harris again ? He barely squeaked by in 2008, maybe due to the growing minority vote?

Perhaps. Also, I am not sure I would give him Nueces, and perhaps Bexar would be more of a squeaker(?), but this is essentially my map
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2012, 04:35:57 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2012, 04:38:08 PM by BaldEagle1991 »


Obama carries Harris again ? He barely squeaked by in 2008, maybe due to the growing minority vote?

I mainly give Obama Harris again due to the minority vote that has been rapidly increasing in recent years there (White beat Perry here in a Tea Party/Anti-Obama 2010 year). Although I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won it by a small margin.

As for Bexar, he'll probably win that county too for the same reasons. Nueces is perhaps my wildest guess but I'd say I gave Obama that county due to the fact that the Hispanic electorate there is now a majority (it wasn't in 2008).  

I also gave Nacogdoches County and Walker County a Romney victory in the 50-55% range.
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2012, 08:46:04 PM »

Alright:

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5280
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2012, 11:57:16 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2012, 12:00:31 AM by 5280 »

51/49 Romney

Romney takes the swing counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson.  Obama takes Larimer county.

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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 12:12:15 AM »



2004 repeat.
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Donerail
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 05:25:16 AM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)
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memphis
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 11:25:44 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2012, 11:49:10 AM by memphis »

Too lazy to paint the map. Obama will complete the Dem collapse along both sections of the Tennessee River. Only counties in TN he will win will be Shelby (Memphis), Davidson (Nashville) and Haywood (majority black rural county). Shelby will be the only >60% Even McGovern won 5 rural mostly white counties, while losing the state by nearly 40 points.
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2012, 01:34:09 PM »

As for FL: I think Romney takes Flagler and possibly Volusia. Hillsborough has had enough minority growth it stays in the Obama column even if he loses narrowly nationally.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2012, 09:13:04 AM »

Too lazy to paint the map. Obama will complete the Dem collapse along both sections of the Tennessee River. Only counties in TN he will win will be Shelby (Memphis), Davidson (Nashville) and Haywood (majority black rural county). Shelby will be the only >60% Even McGovern won 5 rural mostly white counties, while losing the state by nearly 40 points.

What do you think the map would look like if the polling is correct and Romney only wins by 10-7 points?
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2012, 11:48:59 AM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.
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Donerail
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2012, 02:29:31 PM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.

I thought Flagler had been trending D recently; maybe not enough, but there's still a decent shot for Obama. As for Hillsborough, I really don't see Romney winning there; the demographic shifts mean that it's pretty far out of reach for Romney.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2012, 01:00:36 AM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.

I thought Flagler had been trending D recently; maybe not enough, but there's still a decent shot for Obama. As for Hillsborough, I really don't see Romney winning there; the demographic shifts mean that it's pretty far out of reach for Romney.

I think if you look at the 2010 governor's race, that's a pretty good map of where the trends are headed.
I'll say Obama loses Volusia and Flagler, and Hillsborough being the bellweather, it might flip as well.

For Orange county (Orlando), where I live, I see overwhelming support for Romney in Winter Park, East Orlando, Metrowest, College Park, while Obama gets support in Pine Hills, and South Orlando.

Orange County I predict 54/46 Obama.
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2012, 01:54:51 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 01:58:49 AM by MilesC56 »


Obama carries Harris again ? He barely squeaked by in 2008, maybe due to the growing minority vote?

I mainly give Obama Harris again due to the minority vote that has been rapidly increasing in recent years there (White beat Perry here in a Tea Party/Anti-Obama 2010 year). Although I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won it by a small margin.

As for Bexar, he'll probably win that county too for the same reasons. Nueces is perhaps my wildest guess but I'd say I gave Obama that county due to the fact that the Hispanic electorate there is now a majority (it wasn't in 2008).  

I also gave Nacogdoches County and Walker County a Romney victory in the 50-55% range.

Why such an improvement for Obama Nacogdoches? McCain got over 63% and the entire region is trending R.

Do you think Obama can get Romney under 70% in that chunk of counties you have along the western part of TX-19?
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2012, 02:05:08 AM »

There's just enough of a Republican swing in NC for Obama to lose the state by 1- 3 points:




Romney gets 59-61% in LA. Obama continues to slide in Acadiana. The organization in Baton Rouge is pretty good, so I think he keeps EBR; plus its one of the few counties actually trending D. Caddo Parish will also be interesting to watch.

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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2012, 12:02:52 PM »

Sussex and Ocean hit 60% Romney, and goes on the cusp in Warren.  This is big time rich, suburban, racist territory.  Obama slips below 60% in Passaic and Middlesex, if barely. 

Cumberland... not so much.  Call me crazy, but I think Obama is going to either maintain or BARELY improve upon his 2008 performance across South Jersey (Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties).  I don't think Romney plays well around here at all.  This is my bold prediction for my state this election and I'm hoping up right. 

Basically a substanial improvement over McCain in NJ's big GOP areas in the NW and the coast.  Around the same in the areas of NJ that are on the turnpike corridor.  Similar performance across South Jersey... if not maybe a little better.

Obama - 55
Romney - 44
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2012, 01:02:46 PM »


Interesting. Just curious: What factors lead you to believe the Democratic bleeding (especially for Obama) in the SW will stop and he'll swing a couple counties back? Especially if we assume that at best Obama's national margin will be a bit lower than in 08?
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2012, 01:15:36 PM »

51/49 Romney

Romney takes the swing counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson.  Obama takes Larimer county.



Seems entirely reasonable. Though I'm curious why you think Arapahoe would flip before Larimer in a 51-49-ish Romney statewide win? That'd require Romney to improve on McCain's vote in Arapahoe at least 2 points more (from a 13 point deficit in 2008) than he improves in Larimer. You know a lot more about CO politics than I and your map is decidedly non-hackish, so I'm genuinely interested in your take on it.
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5280
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2012, 01:25:00 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 01:33:02 PM by 5280 »

51/49 Romney

Romney takes the swing counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson.  Obama takes Larimer county.



Seems entirely reasonable. Though I'm curious why you think Arapahoe would flip before Larimer in a 51-49-ish Romney statewide win? That'd require Romney to improve on McCain's vote in Arapahoe at least 2 points more (from a 13 point deficit in 2008) than he improves in Larimer. You know a lot more about CO politics than I and your map is decidedly non-hackish, so I'm genuinely interested in your take on it.
Arapahoe would flip before Larimer due to it being mostly suburban and having Buckley AFB, which leads to a higher turnout of the GOP cause of military. SE Aurora has new booming subdivisions which would benefit GOP. Larimer county on the other hand has CSU, and it's culturally similar to Boulder county.  I'm not sure about Broomfield county, it could flip either way since it's close to Boulder, but it's not important enough to be of concern.  Adams county (where I live), it's mostly working class and has a higher Hispanic population, that's a lean Democrat county and hasn't voted for GOP since 1984. Jefferson county has the southern part (Littleton, Ken Caryl, Lakewood) which are usually GOP, and the north part of Jeffco is left leaning.  

Think of it this way, the closer to the mountains the more liberal, the farther out, more GOP.  This is when you exclude Denver county.
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