Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney (user search)
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  Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney  (Read 3206 times)
Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,317
United States


« on: October 18, 2012, 01:02:46 PM »

Interesting. Just curious: What factors lead you to believe the Democratic bleeding (especially for Obama) in the SW will stop and he'll swing a couple counties back? Especially if we assume that at best Obama's national margin will be a bit lower than in 08?
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Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,317
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2012, 01:15:36 PM »
Quote from: 5280 on October 15, 2012, 11:57:16 PM
51/49 Romney

Romney takes the swing counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson.  Obama takes Larimer county.



Seems entirely reasonable. Though I'm curious why you think Arapahoe would flip before Larimer in a 51-49-ish Romney statewide win? That'd require Romney to improve on McCain's vote in Arapahoe at least 2 points more (from a 13 point deficit in 2008) than he improves in Larimer. You know a lot more about CO politics than I and your map is decidedly non-hackish, so I'm genuinely interested in your take on it.
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