Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney

[Averroës Nix]

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

[Averroës Nix]

A question: The county above Erie (Niagra, I believe) barely swung D in 2008. What happened there?

It's interesting; nearly every county in the Buffalo MSA trended away from the Democrats in 2008, but in the adjacent Rochester MSA, most of them swung toward the Democrats. Strongly, too: Kerry won by a three-point margin in Monroe County, where Rochester is located; Obama won Monroe by nearly 18 points. In Erie, where Kerry won by 15 points, Obama's margin was a fraction of a point less than what it was in Monroe.

Some important differences between Rochester and Buffalo in 2008 (most still hold):

- Rochester was growing, Buffalo was losing population

- Rochester had a more educated population

- Rochester's work force was better paid

- (I think) Rochester had a larger student population

[Averroës Nix]

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

I'd have to make a few corrections in terms of my own guess - I think Chenango and Otsego will go Romney by more than 2%, not Obama, and Broome will go Romney with less than 1%.  Obama obviously will still most certainly win the state.

I have Romney winning Chenango! And Obama took Broome with over 54% in '08 - I don't see Romney pulling enough voters to swing the county, although I would be interested in hearing why you expect him to manage that feat. Otsego is a more difficult case to predict, but I expect that whoever wins that county will fall short of a majority.