Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney

[Miles]

Obama carries Harris again ? He barely squeaked by in 2008, maybe due to the growing minority vote?

I mainly give Obama Harris again due to the minority vote that has been rapidly increasing in recent years there (White beat Perry here in a Tea Party/Anti-Obama 2010 year). Although I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won it by a small margin.

As for Bexar, he'll probably win that county too for the same reasons. Nueces is perhaps my wildest guess but I'd say I gave Obama that county due to the fact that the Hispanic electorate there is now a majority (it wasn't in 2008).  

I also gave Nacogdoches County and Walker County a Romney victory in the 50-55% range.

Why such an improvement for Obama Nacogdoches? McCain got over 63% and the entire region is trending R.

Do you think Obama can get Romney under 70% in that chunk of counties you have along the western part of TX-19?

[Miles]

There's just enough of a Republican swing in NC for Obama to lose the state by 1- 3 points:




Romney gets 59-61% in LA. Obama continues to slide in Acadiana. The organization in Baton Rouge is pretty good, so I think he keeps EBR; plus its one of the few counties actually trending D. Caddo Parish will also be interesting to watch.