Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'll predict 58-41 in Lancaster, PA (where I am). The Latino vote has grown too much for Mitt to break 60%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In NY, I expect Obama to tip in with just a hair over 60% of the vote.

A question: The county above Erie (Niagra, I believe) barely swung D in 2008. What happened there?

As for Pennsylvania total, I'll say about 3% better for Obama than the national average, so maybe 52-47. County map will be up soon. My second home state, New Jersey, should be about 54-45 Obama.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Alright:

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Alright:

Interesting. Just curious: What factors lead you to believe the Democratic bleeding (especially for Obama) in the SW will stop and he'll swing a couple counties back? Especially if we assume that at best Obama's national margin will be a bit lower than in 08?

Nearly every election has at least one state that swings the opposite direction; even 1980 had Vermont. My hunch in the Southwest is based on Obama's Bain Capital line of attack on Romney. Ohio seems to be trending Democratic based on that, suggesting that Obama's gain is from the working-class eastern counties. In addition, plenty of voters there were bitter over Hillary's loss in 2008. Obama is a poor candidate for SWPA, but I think he'll narrowly take Greene and Fayette counties. Romney's improvements in PA come from gains in Central Pennsylvania and the Philly suburbs.